2022-02-09 · +30d

lstm_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 148 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2058

148 of 148 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+21.31%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

82.4%

in alpha space · 90.5% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-12.80%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (148 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	5.908	5.0951	-13.76%	2.42	-59.04%	0.6076	✓	1.00	1.0M	2022-03-11
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.351	1.1815	-12.55%	0.7156	-47.03%	0.3645	✓	1.00	1.9M	2022-03-11
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.03747	0.033385	-10.90%	0.01489	-60.26%	0.6322	✓	1.28	114k	2022-03-11
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.8202	0.740238	-9.75%	0.3924	-52.16%	0.3833	✓	1.84	1.8M	2022-03-11
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	26,293.98	23,850.61	-9.29%	18,538.11	-29.50%	0.1226	✓	0.94	11.3M	2022-03-11
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.46	2.2335	-9.21%	1.51	-38.62%	0.2545	✓	1.00	1.4M	2022-03-11
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.76	4.3462	-8.69%	2.89	-39.29%	0.2210	✓	1.37	8.0M	2022-03-11
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.3852	1.2853	-7.21%	1.4867	+7.33%	0.3572	✗	1.55	107k	2022-03-11
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.086	0.079874	-7.12%	0.0576	-33.02%	0.0976	✓	1.67	27.8M	2022-03-11
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	9.31	8.6537	-7.05%	5.57	-40.17%	0.3930	✓	0.35	1.6M	2022-03-11
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	8.263	7.6875	-6.96%	4.594	-44.40%	0.3764	✓	1.01	460k	2022-03-11
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	3.5	3.2575	-6.93%	1.97	-43.71%	0.3127	✓	1.39	20.5M	2022-03-11
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.9679	1.8363	-6.69%	2.5749	+30.85%	0.4224	✗	0.62	2.8M	2022-03-11
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.8694	3.6125	-6.64%	2.0529	-46.95%	0.4446	✓	0.88	28k	2022-03-11
STX	Stacks	native	1.72	1.611	-6.34%	1.36	-20.93%	0.0324	✓	1.00	1.2M	2022-03-11
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00744	0.006972	-6.29%	0.00353	-52.55%	0.4067	✓	2.00	19.8M	2022-03-11
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.05819	0.054606	-6.16%	0.040059	-31.16%	0.1462	✓	1.19	8.8M	2022-03-11
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	47.97	45.0639	-6.06%	40.81	-14.93%	0.0607	✓	1.17	32.3M	2022-03-11
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.04	3.8046	-5.83%	4.776	+18.22%	0.2721	✗	0.33	1.5M	2022-03-11
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.43	1.348	-5.73%	0.959	-32.94%	0.1561	✓	1.35	523k	2022-03-11
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	23.1	21.8226	-5.53%	16.01	-30.69%	0.1523	✓	1.15	26.1M	2022-03-11
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04699	0.044441	-5.42%	0.04078	-13.22%	0.0510	✓	1.00	4.9M	2022-03-11
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003298	0.000031209	-5.37%	0.00002206	-33.11%	0.1552	✓	1.40	1.4M	2022-03-11
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.6017	0.569535	-5.35%	0.5009	-16.75%	0.0180	✓	1.07	1.2M	2022-03-11
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.23058	0.218745	-5.13%	0.15536	-32.62%	0.1247	✓	1.59	36k	2022-03-11
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.5665	0.537858	-5.06%	0.3152	-44.36%	0.2886	✓	1.79	40.2M	2022-03-11
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	30.94	29.4095	-4.95%	27.47	-11.22%	0.0837	✗	1.11	96.8M	2022-03-11
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.128	0.121761	-4.87%	0.111	-13.28%	0.0444	✓	1.00	72k	2022-03-11
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.017007	0.01618	-4.86%	0.011862	-30.25%	0.1495	✓	1.18	1.6M	2022-03-11
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01509	0.014396	-4.60%	0.01151	-23.72%	0.0197	✓	1.49	1.7M	2022-03-11
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.3185	0.30428	-4.46%	0.2585	-18.84%	0.0111	✓	1.11	518k	2022-03-11
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	6.8052	6.5023	-4.45%	5.8362	-14.24%	0.0678	✓	0.29	407k	2022-03-11
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	150.18	143.5792	-4.40%	113.22	-24.61%	0.1002	✓	1.00	7.6M	2022-03-11
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.84	5.5943	-4.21%	4.165	-28.68%	0.1280	✓	1.22	2.6M	2022-03-11
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	107.0699	102.6358	-4.14%	48.7591	-54.46%	0.5499	✓	1.42	320k	2022-03-11
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	3.269	3.1376	-4.02%	1.662	-49.16%	0.4985	✓	1.00	67k	2022-03-11
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	1.07	1.0272	-4.00%	0.93	-13.08%	0.0376	✓	1.00	286k	2022-03-11
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.09	1.0471	-3.94%	0.59	-45.87%	0.3082	✓	1.94	1.1M	2022-03-11
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.16	2.0794	-3.73%	1.307	-39.49%	0.2885	✓	1.28	1.2M	2022-03-11
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.3415	3.2169	-3.73%	2.3033	-31.07%	0.2014	✓	0.97	2.8M	2022-03-11
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	25.8	24.8404	-3.72%	17.81	-30.97%	0.1182	✓	1.57	398k	2022-03-11
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	18.7	18.0253	-3.61%	13.05	-30.21%	0.1601	✓	1.19	75.4M	2022-03-11
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	67.62	65.2653	-3.48%	45.9	-32.12%	0.1853	✓	1.22	8.4M	2022-03-11
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000232	0.00000224	-3.46%	0.00000178	-23.28%	0.0928	✓	1.00	15.1M	2022-03-11
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	16.51	15.9408	-3.45%	12.74	-22.83%	0.0807	✓	1.05	590k	2022-03-11
DASH	Dash	Dash	114.95	110.9918	-3.44%	94.95	-17.40%	0.0009	✓	1.13	2.2M	2022-03-11
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	90.18	87.0956	-3.42%	71.25	-20.99%	0.0163	✓	1.35	87.1M	2022-03-11
XVG	Verge	native	0.01253	0.012106	-3.38%	0.00939	-25.06%	0.0676	✓	1.36	1.3M	2022-03-11
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.083	2.9819	-3.28%	5.761	+86.86%	0.8435	✗	1.35	1.1M	2022-03-11
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.1947	1.1557	-3.26%	0.7884	-34.01%	0.2305	✓	1.11	109.8M	2022-03-11
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.17	4.0347	-3.24%	3.44	-17.51%	0.0137	✓	1.26	1.9M	2022-03-11
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.4429	4.3014	-3.18%	2.9889	-32.73%	0.1844	✓	1.31	2.3M	2022-03-11
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.7609	0.736866	-3.16%	0.4152	-45.43%	0.3639	✓	1.53	938k	2022-03-11
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.238854	0.231483	-3.09%	0.183591	-23.14%	0.0918	✓	1.02	24.9M	2022-03-11
HIVE	Hive	native	1.1728	1.1367	-3.08%	0.8661	-26.15%	0.0723	✓	1.46	1.9M	2022-03-11
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		9.329	9.0428	-3.07%	5.556	-40.44%	0.4423	✓	0.33	38k	2022-03-11
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	44,416.35	43,056.97	-3.06%	38,732.04	-12.80%	0.0311	✗	1.00	642.7M	2022-03-11
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.2907	1.2516	-3.03%	1.1514	-10.79%	0.0783	✗	1.18	2.3M	2022-03-11
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.406	0.393752	-3.02%	0.262	-35.47%	0.2216	✓	1.36	1.8M	2022-03-11
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.0371	1.0059	-3.01%	0.7014	-32.37%	0.2103	✓	1.10	29.2M	2022-03-11
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1429	0.138609	-3.00%	0.1144	-19.94%	0.0036	✓	1.38	3.2M	2022-03-11
XEM	NEM	native	0.1212	0.11758	-2.99%	0.0935	-22.85%	0.0858	✓	1.05	35k	2022-03-11
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.885	3.7714	-2.92%	3.4608	-10.92%	0.0460	✗	0.96	2.2M	2022-03-11
XEC	eCash	native	0.00009721	0.000094367	-2.92%	0.0000731	-24.80%	0.0989	✓	1.14	5.6M	2022-03-11
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	57.56	55.888	-2.90%	88.28	+53.37%	0.6496	✗	1.41	8.8M	2022-03-11
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	24.32	23.614	-2.90%	17.37	-28.58%	0.1440	✓	1.19	10.4M	2022-03-11
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2.28	2.2145	-2.87%	1.64	-28.07%	0.1223	✓	1.30	2.2M	2022-03-11
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.10785	0.104791	-2.84%	0.09115	-15.48%	0.0056	✓	1.06	49k	2022-03-11
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.609	2.5366	-2.78%	2.114	-18.97%	0.0379	✓	1.05	22k	2022-03-11
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	7.2042	7.0065	-2.75%	5.8755	-18.44%	0.0219	✓	1.45	156k	2022-03-11
XMR	Monero	Monero	185.83	180.767	-2.72%	170.68	-8.15%	0.0851	✗	1.04	1.5M	2022-03-11
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.159048	0.154721	-2.72%	0.11539	-27.45%	0.1528	✓	1.03	7.1M	2022-03-11
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1678	0.163295	-2.68%	0.1489	-11.26%	0.0507	✗	1.04	412k	2022-03-11
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.8968	3.7936	-2.65%	3.707	-4.87%	0.1279	✗	1.10	2.5M	2022-03-11
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	21.97	21.392	-2.63%	17.7	-19.44%	0.0047	✓	1.35	37.4M	2022-03-11
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	33.84	32.9551	-2.62%	26.5	-21.69%	0.0727	✓	1.06	4.0M	2022-03-11
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.0216	0.99538	-2.57%	0.7111	-30.39%	0.1935	✓	1.04	13.5M	2022-03-11
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.94117	0.917619	-2.50%	0.65584	-30.32%	0.1335	✓	1.48	311k	2022-03-11
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3218	0.314396	-2.30%	0.1962	-39.03%	0.2594	✓	1.55	4.0M	2022-03-11
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1237	0.120892	-2.27%	0.0787	-36.38%	0.2165	✓	1.55	1.5M	2022-03-11
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.832	1.7908	-2.25%	1.464	-20.09%	0.0443	✓	1.15	1.6M	2022-03-11
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6.66	6.5122	-2.22%	7.075	+6.23%	0.2167	✗	0.98	1.9M	2022-03-11
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0943	0.092209	-2.22%	0.0696	-26.19%	0.1127	✓	1.23	219k	2022-03-11
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.591	0.578044	-2.19%	0.385	-34.86%	0.2098	✓	1.44	4.6M	2022-03-11
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.91	10.6712	-2.19%	10.59	-2.93%	0.0889	✗	0.71	660k	2022-03-11
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	5.3633	5.247	-2.17%	4.0628	-24.25%	0.0884	✓	1.22	442k	2022-03-11
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0867	0.084826	-2.16%	0.0661	-23.76%	0.0605	✓	1.38	548k	2022-03-11
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.08573	0.083906	-2.13%	0.07118	-16.97%	0.0609	✓	0.76	89k	2022-03-11
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	18.16	17.7841	-2.07%	13.84	-23.79%	0.1545	✓	0.70	919k	2022-03-11
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		101.5	99.4279	-2.04%	78.04	-23.11%	0.1185	✓	0.90	1.4M	2022-03-11
ZEN	Horizen	Base	47.83	46.8683	-2.01%	37.86	-20.84%	0.0028	✓	1.54	461k	2022-03-11
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.024233	0.023759	-1.96%	0.01714	-29.27%	0.1604	✓	1.21	2.5M	2022-03-11
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.94	2.8831	-1.93%	1.75	-40.48%	0.3246	✓	1.28	401k	2022-03-11
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	2.28	2.2365	-1.91%	1.157	-49.25%	0.4705	✓	1.38	3.1M	2022-03-11
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.706728	0.693335	-1.90%	0.48841	-30.89%	0.1931	✓	1.15	3.5M	2022-03-11
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.796	3.7243	-1.89%	2.869	-24.42%	0.1413	✓	0.87	536k	2022-03-11
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2412	0.236668	-1.88%	0.1931	-19.94%	0.0128	✓	1.39	3.7M	2022-03-11
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0794	0.077934	-1.85%	0.06831	-13.97%	0.0169	✓	1.09	21k	2022-03-11
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	140.21	137.654	-1.82%	104.55	-25.43%	0.0966	✓	1.30	32.4M	2022-03-11
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.3519	1.3274	-1.81%	0.96652	-28.51%	0.1764	✓	1.03	279k	2022-03-11
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1868	0.183424	-1.81%	0.1335	-28.53%	0.2201	✓	0.71	423k	2022-03-11
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	33.92	33.3116	-1.79%	22.89	-32.52%	0.1689	✓	1.51	2.0M	2022-03-11
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	188.2	184.8929	-1.76%	116.61	-38.04%	0.2700	✓	1.39	9.5M	2022-03-11
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2963	0.291279	-1.69%	0.2186	-26.22%	0.1386	✓	1.08	1.7M	2022-03-11
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	1.0976	1.0791	-1.69%	0.6978	-36.42%	0.2247	✓	1.54	672k	2022-03-11
KCS	KuCoin	native	20.705	20.3578	-1.68%	18.17	-12.24%	0.0699	✗	1.34	10.4M	2022-03-11
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,246.22	3,192.07	-1.67%	2,556.42	-21.25%	0.0701	✓	1.11	544.5M	2022-03-11
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.43	1.4069	-1.61%	1.113	-22.17%	0.0649	✓	1.24	3.2M	2022-03-11
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.0468	0.046047	-1.61%	0.03906	-16.54%	0.0118	✓	1.12	30k	2022-03-11
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.93	1.8995	-1.58%	1.321	-31.55%	0.1918	✓	1.25	1.5M	2022-03-11
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.21	2.1764	-1.52%	1.06	-52.04%	0.5581	✓	1.18	1.7M	2022-03-11
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.801	4.7284	-1.51%	4.326	-9.89%	0.0252	✗	0.83	346k	2022-03-11
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01205	0.011875	-1.45%	0.00879	-27.05%	0.1630	✓	1.01	572k	2022-03-11
SOL	Solana	Solana	114.04	112.3868	-1.45%	80.7	-29.24%	0.1619	✓	1.24	179.7M	2022-03-11
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	6.08	5.9952	-1.40%	4.44	-26.97%	0.1585	✓	1.04	773k	2022-03-11
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	192.22	189.5384	-1.40%	124.19	-35.39%	0.2578	✓	1.20	1.0M	2022-03-11
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01324	0.013063	-1.34%	0.01186	-10.42%	0.0121	✓	0.79	12k	2022-03-11
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.9982	1.9722	-1.30%	2.1155	+5.87%	0.2209	✗	1.10	79k	2022-03-11
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.5406	0.533728	-1.27%	0.2924	-45.91%	0.3989	✓	1.48	2.2M	2022-03-11
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.48	7.3873	-1.24%	5.85	-21.79%	0.1891	✓	0.32	1.0M	2022-03-11
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	12.33	12.1791	-1.22%	8.51	-30.98%	0.1778	✓	1.32	12.5M	2022-03-11
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0337	0.03329	-1.22%	0.02301	-31.72%	0.1638	✓	1.50	490k	2022-03-11
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4877	0.481827	-1.20%	0.3189	-34.61%	0.2326	✓	1.32	9.2M	2022-03-11
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.0312	0.030846	-1.14%	0.02468	-20.90%	0.1011	✓	0.89	6.6M	2022-03-11
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.4	2.3729	-1.13%	1.6874	-29.69%	0.1786	✓	1.19	845k	2022-03-11
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	126.05	124.6403	-1.12%	153.51	+21.79%	0.3808	✗	1.26	6.6M	2022-03-11
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	7.18	7.1051	-1.04%	6.28	-12.53%	0.0029	✓	0.88	416k	2022-03-11
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	144.23	142.7536	-1.02%	102.07	-29.23%	0.1613	✓	1.27	65k	2022-03-11
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	7.14	7.0797	-0.84%	7.84	+9.80%	0.2127	✗	0.81	463k	2022-03-11
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.288	0.285826	-0.75%	0.226	-21.53%	0.1041	✓	0.95	70k	2022-03-11
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	21.27	21.1118	-0.74%	13.72	-35.50%	0.1949	✓	1.72	3.8M	2022-03-11
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	7.06	7.0079	-0.74%	3.82	-45.89%	0.4559	✓	1.10	733k	2022-03-11
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05941	0.059008	-0.68%	0.0472	-20.55%	0.0274	✓	1.43	1.2M	2022-03-11
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	28.48	28.2951	-0.65%	27.91	-2.00%	0.1186	✗	0.97	566k	2022-03-11
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.83	2.8118	-0.64%	2.16	-23.67%	0.1246	✓	1.02	489k	2022-03-11
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.6233	0.619349	-0.63%	0.6706	+7.59%	0.2590	✗	1.31	2.6M	2022-03-11
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	44,492.60	44,215.11	-0.62%	38,852.80	-12.68%	0.0030	✓	0.97	41k	2022-03-11
GT	Gate	Ethereum	7.0423	7.0031	-0.56%	6.328	-10.14%	0.0207	✗	0.89	4.1M	2022-03-11
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.041	0.040818	-0.44%	0.0143	-65.12%	0.8957	✓	1.12	9.1M	2022-03-11
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	6	5.9741	-0.43%	5.49	-8.50%	0.0227	✗	0.78	377k	2022-03-11
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.897	6.8786	-0.27%	4.778	-30.72%	0.2407	✓	0.90	81k	2022-03-11
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.827	0.825174	-0.22%	0.636	-23.10%	0.1110	✓	1.09	1.6M	2022-03-11
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.81	2.8062	-0.14%	1.705	-39.32%	0.3716	✓	0.92	2.6M	2022-03-11
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	346.21	346.1192	-0.03%	287.73	-16.89%	0.0453	✓	1.02	7.9M	2022-03-11
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.347	3.3545	+0.22%	2.741	-18.11%	0.0912	✗	0.81	206k	2022-03-11
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.086	1.0888	+0.26%	0.807	-25.69%	0.1120	✗	1.37	2.3M	2022-03-11
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.069943	0.07052	+0.82%	0.060203	-13.93%	0.0352	✗	0.90	362k	2022-03-11
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	10.06	10.1775	+1.17%	8.54	-15.11%	0.0018	✓	1.29	2.5M	2022-03-11

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.