2022-02-18 · +30d

lstm_s3 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 150 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.3171

150 of 150 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+14.95%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

70.0%

in alpha space · 60.0% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+3.26%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (150 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04094	0.03562	-12.99%	0.04486	+9.57%	0.2080	✗	0.71	1.9M	2022-03-20
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.15	1.9147	-10.94%	1.72	-20.00%	0.1647	✓	1.79	744k	2022-03-20
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.4198	0.375619	-10.52%	0.3394	-19.15%	0.1548	✓	1.66	17.8M	2022-03-20
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	3.889	3.5005	-9.99%	2.68	-31.09%	0.3032	✓	1.13	593k	2022-03-20
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.0542	0.949304	-9.95%	0.7809	-25.92%	0.2199	✓	0.77	1.5M	2022-03-20
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.026937	0.024414	-9.37%	0.024805	-7.91%	0.0207	✓	1.14	88k	2022-03-20
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.015984	0.014509	-9.23%	0.01417	-11.35%	0.0589	✓	1.10	335k	2022-03-20
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	1.07	0.972559	-9.11%	0.94	-12.15%	0.0661	✓	1.00	271k	2022-03-20
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.85	2.5907	-9.10%	2.15	-24.56%	0.2185	✓	1.00	737k	2022-03-20
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.139	0.126435	-9.04%	0.106	-23.74%	0.2113	✓	1.09	57k	2022-03-20
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	2.017	1.8363	-8.96%	1.647	-18.34%	0.1409	✓	1.00	68k	2022-03-20
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5612	0.51173	-8.82%	0.5158	-8.09%	0.0210	✓	0.90	780k	2022-03-20
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.17101	0.156112	-8.71%	0.15317	-10.43%	0.0652	✓	1.44	32k	2022-03-20
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00516	0.004719	-8.55%	0.00365	-29.26%	0.3193	✓	1.94	15.8M	2022-03-20
API3	Api3	Ethereum	6.01	5.501	-8.47%	4.773	-20.58%	0.1485	✓	0.20	1.8M	2022-03-20
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	2.1176	1.9525	-7.80%	3.2419	+53.09%	0.4895	✗	0.55	3.1M	2022-03-20
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000205	0.000001894	-7.60%	0.00000182	-11.22%	0.0720	✓	1.00	14.3M	2022-03-20
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	21,934.46	20,335.55	-7.29%	19,923.17	-9.17%	0.0528	✓	1.01	6.5M	2022-03-20
STX	Stacks	native	1.35	1.2535	-7.15%	1.26	-6.67%	0.0269	✓	1.00	911k	2022-03-20
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.61	1.4986	-6.92%	1.12	-30.43%	0.3302	✓	1.21	1.2M	2022-03-20
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.181	2.9724	-6.56%	4.103	+28.98%	0.2940	✗	0.88	481k	2022-03-20
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	0.9958	0.932859	-6.32%	0.879	-11.73%	0.0950	✓	1.11	98.1M	2022-03-20
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	83.1979	78.0751	-6.16%	59.6685	-28.28%	0.3162	✓	1.47	315k	2022-03-20
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	26.85	25.2069	-6.12%	27.83	+3.65%	0.0656	✗	1.04	64.2M	2022-03-20
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.9795	2.7981	-6.09%	2.1688	-27.21%	0.2851	✓	0.95	27k	2022-03-20
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.35	4.0885	-6.01%	4.8674	+11.90%	0.1362	✗	1.19	330k	2022-03-20
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.708	5.3668	-5.98%	6.0638	+6.23%	0.1101	✗	0.37	441k	2022-03-20
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8015	0.754608	-5.85%	0.7517	-6.21%	0.0382	✓	1.07	10.8M	2022-03-20
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.6049	1.5116	-5.81%	1.4713	-8.32%	0.0755	✓	1.51	164k	2022-03-20
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.0487	0.045935	-5.68%	0.040072	-17.72%	0.1753	✓	1.21	7.5M	2022-03-20
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0978	0.092252	-5.67%	0.0911	-6.85%	0.0608	✓	1.50	919k	2022-03-20
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.59	1.5026	-5.49%	1.555	-2.20%	0.0050	✓	1.22	1.3M	2022-03-20
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.7	4.4435	-5.46%	3.584	-23.74%	0.2542	✓	1.22	1.9M	2022-03-20
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.674	1.5833	-5.42%	1.444	-13.74%	0.1361	✓	1.37	1.1M	2022-03-20
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.91	3.7001	-5.37%	3.24	-17.14%	0.1770	✓	1.38	7.8M	2022-03-20
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.0548	1.9445	-5.37%	2.21	+7.55%	0.0881	✗	1.24	292k	2022-03-20
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.877	0.829964	-5.36%	0.8221	-6.26%	0.0564	✓	1.46	464k	2022-03-20
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.93	2.7738	-5.33%	2.43	-17.06%	0.1644	✓	1.00	736k	2022-03-20
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	50.61	47.9167	-5.32%	90.43	+78.68%	0.5899	✗	1.41	5.6M	2022-03-20
SOL	Solana	Solana	89.9	85.1531	-5.28%	88.64	-1.40%	0.0003	✓	1.24	179.7M	2022-03-20
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0812	0.076926	-5.26%	0.0705	-13.18%	0.1299	✓	1.33	1.1M	2022-03-20
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.81	2.6641	-5.19%	2.15	-23.49%	0.2629	✓	1.51	15.4M	2022-03-20
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	19.61	18.5995	-5.15%	16.77	-14.48%	0.1405	✓	1.15	23.7M	2022-03-20
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.6234	3.4368	-5.15%	3.3362	-7.93%	0.0702	✓	1.26	2.2M	2022-03-20
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.02552	0.024248	-4.98%	0.03255	+27.55%	0.2501	✗	1.38	10.9M	2022-03-20
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1967	0.187122	-4.87%	0.2035	+3.46%	0.0400	✓	1.37	3.5M	2022-03-20
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.37	4.1578	-4.86%	5.219	+19.43%	0.1881	✗	1.22	2.5M	2022-03-20
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.38	2.2657	-4.80%	2.35	-1.26%	0.0037	✓	1.02	342k	2022-03-20
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	20.51	19.5365	-4.75%	19.62	-4.34%	0.0447	✓	1.53	383k	2022-03-20
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.895	0.852535	-4.74%	0.7418	-17.12%	0.1788	✓	1.24	26.6M	2022-03-20
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.97	2.8295	-4.73%	2.3992	-19.22%	0.2029	✓	1.18	3.3M	2022-03-20
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.494	0.470663	-4.72%	0.419	-15.18%	0.1608	✓	1.39	4.7M	2022-03-20
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0302	0.028787	-4.68%	0.02543	-15.79%	0.1703	✓	1.44	493k	2022-03-20
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	5.92	5.6506	-4.55%	7.574	+27.94%	0.2606	✗	1.01	1.9M	2022-03-20
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.82	1.7372	-4.55%	1.88	+3.30%	0.0362	✓	1.33	2.1M	2022-03-20
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.58	1.5087	-4.51%	1.465	-7.28%	0.0731	✓	1.36	2.7M	2022-03-20
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	55.59	53.1003	-4.48%	49.87	-10.29%	0.1036	✓	1.27	9.2M	2022-03-20
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	109.21	104.3758	-4.43%	174.15	+59.46%	0.4741	✗	1.18	7.6M	2022-03-20
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	15.77	15.0785	-4.38%	15.84	+0.44%	0.0053	✓	1.70	3.1M	2022-03-20
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2677	0.255978	-4.38%	0.2994	+11.84%	0.1216	✗	1.09	538k	2022-03-20
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.75452	0.721787	-4.34%	0.82107	+8.82%	0.0812	✗	1.48	334k	2022-03-20
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	6.389	6.1131	-4.32%	4.884	-23.56%	0.2562	✓	0.99	407k	2022-03-20
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	114.85	109.9147	-4.30%	114.88	+0.03%	0.0052	✓	1.21	31.6M	2022-03-20
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.5682	0.544078	-4.25%	0.4472	-21.30%	0.2419	✓	1.43	665k	2022-03-20
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1446	0.138465	-4.24%	0.1522	+5.26%	0.0616	✗	1.03	470k	2022-03-20
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	310.22	297.1315	-4.22%	327.61	+5.61%	0.0663	✗	0.98	8.4M	2022-03-20
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.1093	2.98	-4.16%	3.8011	+22.25%	0.2126	✗	0.96	2.5M	2022-03-20
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		87.44	83.8239	-4.14%	85.03	-2.76%	0.0141	✓	0.88	1.1M	2022-03-20
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.076	2.9499	-4.10%	4.2046	+36.69%	0.3225	✗	0.99	2.4M	2022-03-20
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4211	0.403857	-4.09%	0.3429	-18.57%	0.2097	✓	1.44	1.6M	2022-03-20
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.37	6.1141	-4.02%	6.14	-3.61%	0.0232	✓	0.86	449k	2022-03-20
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,780.08	2,668.78	-4.00%	2,862.44	+2.96%	0.0342	✓	1.12	588.4M	2022-03-20
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	21.02	20.1876	-3.96%	17.65	-16.03%	0.1735	✓	1.22	10.8M	2022-03-20
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.581	2.4794	-3.94%	6.238	+141.69%	0.8815	✗	1.28	911k	2022-03-20
DASH	Dash	Dash	105.32	101.1825	-3.93%	115.63	+9.79%	0.0982	✗	1.10	1.7M	2022-03-20
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.104	1.0609	-3.90%	1.194	+8.15%	0.0786	✗	1.23	3.3M	2022-03-20
XVG	Verge	native	0.01063	0.010215	-3.90%	0.00932	-12.32%	0.1334	✓	1.30	1.2M	2022-03-20
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	6.93	6.6606	-3.89%	6.49	-6.35%	0.0379	✓	0.37	1.6M	2022-03-20
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	17.83	17.138	-3.88%	18.66	+4.66%	0.0421	✗	1.34	32.8M	2022-03-20
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	83.75	80.501	-3.88%	84.85	+1.31%	0.0081	✓	1.39	110.8M	2022-03-20
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.019599	0.018839	-3.88%	0.01861	-5.05%	0.0492	✓	1.15	2.4M	2022-03-20
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.716	4.5333	-3.87%	4.965	+5.28%	0.0649	✗	0.81	383k	2022-03-20
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	15.2	14.6114	-3.87%	14.56	-4.21%	0.0420	✓	1.20	69.3M	2022-03-20
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1609	0.154683	-3.86%	0.1358	-15.60%	0.1514	✓	0.66	372k	2022-03-20
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	145.64	140.0578	-3.83%	152.83	+4.94%	0.0417	✗	1.42	7.3M	2022-03-20
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	5.29	5.0877	-3.82%	4.45	-15.88%	0.1673	✓	1.04	517k	2022-03-20
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.247	0.237606	-3.80%	0.2056	-16.76%	0.1936	✓	1.52	3.8M	2022-03-20
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.02	2.9053	-3.80%	3.301	+9.30%	0.1026	✗	0.78	212k	2022-03-20
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.43	2.338	-3.78%	2.12	-12.76%	0.1367	✓	1.21	390k	2022-03-20
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.5205	0.501335	-3.68%	0.4042	-22.34%	0.2749	✓	1.86	1.9M	2022-03-20
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.89	0.857675	-3.63%	0.64	-28.09%	0.3561	✓	1.97	1.2M	2022-03-20
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02928	0.028227	-3.60%	0.02552	-12.84%	0.1280	✓	0.85	5.3M	2022-03-20
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	15.2	14.6538	-3.59%	12.86	-15.39%	0.1525	✓	0.68	1.7M	2022-03-20
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	29.08	28.0519	-3.54%	29.09	+0.03%	0.0064	✓	0.93	1.2M	2022-03-20
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	121.52	117.2542	-3.51%	116.01	-4.53%	0.0519	✓	1.29	59k	2022-03-20
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5229	0.50465	-3.49%	0.9266	+77.20%	0.5658	✗	1.30	2.3M	2022-03-20
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0602	0.058105	-3.48%	0.0662	+9.97%	0.0748	✗	1.73	64.3M	2022-03-20
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	43.09	41.5931	-3.47%	44.03	+2.18%	0.0194	✓	1.17	29.5M	2022-03-20
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.3	5.1173	-3.45%	4.85	-8.49%	0.0866	✓	1.03	701k	2022-03-20
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04101	0.039605	-3.43%	0.04113	+0.29%	0.0028	✓	1.09	31k	2022-03-20
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	25.01	24.1598	-3.40%	26.24	+4.92%	0.0344	✓	1.50	2.0M	2022-03-20
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.17	9.8284	-3.36%	12.22	+20.16%	0.1965	✗	0.66	821k	2022-03-20
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.86	0.83158	-3.30%	0.847	-1.51%	0.0246	✓	1.34	2.4M	2022-03-20
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	113.58	109.8572	-3.28%	118.64	+4.46%	0.0444	✗	1.01	7.5M	2022-03-20
HIVE	Hive	native	0.9999	0.96719	-3.27%	0.9064	-9.35%	0.1147	✓	1.55	1.9M	2022-03-20
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.09046	0.087505	-3.27%	0.09509	+5.12%	0.0481	✗	1.09	50k	2022-03-20
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	14.44	13.9802	-3.18%	17.35	+20.15%	0.1831	✗	1.02	483k	2022-03-20
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2543	0.246403	-3.11%	0.2472	-2.79%	0.0289	✓	1.00	1.8M	2022-03-20
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.222	2.1532	-3.10%	2.227	+0.23%	0.0002	✓	1.04	20k	2022-03-20
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4126	0.39989	-3.08%	0.3905	-5.36%	0.0684	✓	1.39	9.0M	2022-03-20
XEC	eCash	native	0.0000786	0.0000762	-3.05%	0.00007941	+1.03%	0.0050	✓	1.13	4.8M	2022-03-20
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1365	0.132446	-2.97%	0.1247	-8.64%	0.1011	✓	1.27	3.3M	2022-03-20
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	28.96	28.1031	-2.96%	38.21	+31.94%	0.2729	✗	1.07	5.2M	2022-03-20
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.594984	0.577388	-2.96%	0.549424	-7.66%	0.0862	✓	1.14	3.6M	2022-03-20
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		6.903	6.7	-2.94%	6.486	-6.04%	0.0438	✓	0.35	36k	2022-03-20
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.518	1.4734	-2.94%	1.566	+3.16%	0.0241	✓	1.15	2.1M	2022-03-20
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01204	0.011689	-2.91%	0.01172	-2.66%	0.0476	✓	1.57	2.2M	2022-03-20
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07167	0.069585	-2.91%	0.07518	+4.90%	0.0528	✗	0.77	88k	2022-03-20
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.261	0.253407	-2.91%	0.244	-6.51%	0.0672	✓	0.91	73k	2022-03-20
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	150.07	145.7417	-2.88%	152.19	+1.41%	0.0058	✓	1.17	973k	2022-03-20
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	5.881	5.7134	-2.85%	5.461	-7.14%	0.0709	✓	0.80	68k	2022-03-20
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.05	1.9929	-2.79%	2.186	+6.63%	0.0591	✗	1.04	3.2M	2022-03-20
XMR	Monero	Monero	160.94	156.4743	-2.77%	194.71	+20.98%	0.1861	✗	1.01	1.2M	2022-03-20
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.6654	1.6197	-2.75%	2.1435	+28.71%	0.2443	✗	1.12	72k	2022-03-20
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	39,983.56	38,889.44	-2.74%	41,287.24	+3.26%	0.0277	✗	1.00	690.2M	2022-03-20
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.138612	0.134931	-2.66%	0.119124	-14.06%	0.1569	✓	1.01	5.6M	2022-03-20
ZEN	Horizen	Base	37.11	36.1406	-2.61%	41.02	+10.54%	0.0775	✗	1.53	405k	2022-03-20
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00961	0.00936	-2.60%	0.00918	-4.47%	0.0523	✓	1.02	504k	2022-03-20
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.0419	1.0161	-2.48%	1.0804	+3.69%	0.0275	✗	1.06	193k	2022-03-20
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.196	1.1669	-2.43%	1.119	-6.44%	0.0825	✓	1.26	2.6M	2022-03-20
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	0.99	0.967519	-2.27%	1.437	+45.15%	0.3548	✗	1.27	818k	2022-03-20
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	5.97	5.8351	-2.26%	7.97	+33.50%	0.2852	✗	0.83	398k	2022-03-20
XEM	NEM	native	0.1011	0.098859	-2.22%	0.0995	-1.58%	0.0261	✓	1.02	37k	2022-03-20
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.6403	6.4933	-2.21%	6.4475	-2.90%	0.0338	✓	0.83	3.6M	2022-03-20
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.322	0.315004	-2.17%	0.814	+152.80%	0.9068	✗	1.33	2.3M	2022-03-20
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.25	5.1363	-2.17%	6.31	+20.19%	0.1815	✗	0.76	415k	2022-03-20
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01279	0.012516	-2.15%	0.0125	-2.27%	0.0270	✓	0.80	15k	2022-03-20
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.200634	0.196341	-2.14%	0.197329	-1.65%	0.0278	✓	1.02	22.0M	2022-03-20
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.552	19.1663	-1.97%	18.205	-6.89%	0.0904	✓	1.21	10.0M	2022-03-20
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.04965	0.048695	-1.92%	0.04968	+0.06%	0.0238	✓	1.37	1.0M	2022-03-20
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0682	0.066931	-1.86%	0.0749	+9.82%	0.0782	✗	1.07	17k	2022-03-20
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	7.2333	7.0991	-1.85%	6.9787	-3.52%	0.0637	✓	1.45	179k	2022-03-20
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	10.16	9.9786	-1.79%	9.33	-8.17%	0.1091	✓	1.31	11.7M	2022-03-20
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.063085	0.061975	-1.76%	0.061551	-2.43%	0.0338	✓	0.84	330k	2022-03-20
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.771	0.75773	-1.72%	0.64	-16.99%	0.2027	✓	1.05	1.9M	2022-03-20
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002815	0.00002771	-1.56%	0.00002312	-17.87%	0.2255	✓	1.38	3.8M	2022-03-20
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0797	0.078759	-1.18%	0.0748	-6.15%	0.0873	✓	1.11	210k	2022-03-20
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	10.35	10.2431	-1.03%	8.96	-13.43%	0.1735	✓	1.24	3.2M	2022-03-20
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.67	7.6051	-0.85%	6.71	-12.52%	0.1314	✓	0.19	1.4M	2022-03-20
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	40,196.70	39,987.06	-0.52%	41,609.40	+3.51%	0.0085	✗	0.97	58k	2022-03-20

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.