TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s1
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
85.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4007
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0287
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001629 | -4.16% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.00162 | -4.04% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001616 | -3.64% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001552 | -2.79% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001176 | -3.04% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001277 | -2.57% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001296 | -2.88% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001408 | -2.69% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1633 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001466 | -2.62% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.1116 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001512 | -3.29% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.1059 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001704 | -2.19% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0660 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002192 | -1.86% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5717 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002251 | -1.67% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5220 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002665 | -2.11% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6784 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002212 | -1.56% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4296 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002531 | -1.68% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.4990 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.00217 | -4.07% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.2992 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002318 | -3.96% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2380 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003009 | -2.50% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2645 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003077 | -2.50% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2738 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003859 | -2.93% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3255 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003642 | -3.18% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4452 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003712 | -3.48% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3628 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003793 | -3.83% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5394 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004872 | -2.98% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7292 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005396 | -2.94% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5827 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006048 | -3.24% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6543 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006872 | -4.07% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5523 | ✓ | 1.00 |