TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s0
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +7d
assessed
20
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
80.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4255
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0161
actual -0.4158
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001731 | -3.33% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001629 | -2.83% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001564 | -2.04% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001183 | -2.44% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001291 | -1.53% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001312 | -1.69% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001428 | -1.35% | – | pending | – | – | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001493 | -0.79% | 0.001791 | +19.00% | 0.1681 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001537 | -1.68% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0893 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001745 | +0.20% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0900 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002208 | -1.15% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5789 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002274 | -0.67% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5322 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.00268 | -1.52% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6843 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002262 | +0.65% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4518 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002558 | -0.60% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.5099 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002236 | -1.15% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3292 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.00238 | -1.40% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2643 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003015 | -2.30% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2665 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003101 | -1.76% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2814 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003881 | -2.36% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3314 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003672 | -2.39% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4532 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003757 | -2.30% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3749 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003847 | -2.46% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5535 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004904 | -2.34% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7358 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005429 | -2.34% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5888 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006098 | -2.45% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6625 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006948 | -3.00% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5633 | ✓ | 1.00 |