DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s9

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

164

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

59.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1213

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0142

actual -0.0319

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	1.8652	-6.20%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.6526	-10.06%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.1880	✗	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	2.9326	-4.44%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.4809	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.1705	-5.85%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0305	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.3297	-7.28%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0036	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	11.2048	-3.76%	3.591	-69.16%	1.1365	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	1.9949	-13.62%	11.643	+404.14%	1.7717	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.5727	-13.75%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.1147	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.5151	-13.85%	2.983	-26.89%	0.1455	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	4.7514	-13.72%	4.08	-25.91%	0.1688	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	7.9968	-12.54%	5.507	-39.77%	0.3496	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	15.9157	-7.74%	9.143	-47.00%	0.5635	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	14.9292	-10.68%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.1401	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	15.1106	-11.97%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.0905	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	21.9149	-10.58%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.2251	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	41.2037	-5.38%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.4927	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	83.6415	-2.13%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6503	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000372192	-0.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000374958	-1.27%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0307	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249699	+0.08%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3630	✓	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000269159	+0.06%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0693	✗	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000308323	-0.19%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1814	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000270362	+0.06%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1508	✓	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000281089	+0.03%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0559	✗	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000309752	-0.14%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0738	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000301255	-0.08%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0364	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278972	+0.06%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0221	✓	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.00030273	-0.06%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0744	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000304187	-0.07%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0383	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330958	-0.31%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0789	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000307161	-0.11%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0781	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000325892	-0.28%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0720	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000299283	-0.04%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0805	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000304284	-0.07%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0008	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000320299	-0.22%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0302	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000314011	-0.16%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0210	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000404938	-1.38%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2380	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000364217	-0.92%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1064	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000322557	-0.35%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0971	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000326133	-0.54%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0020	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000291386	-0.24%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1400	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.00022753	+0.37%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2663	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000239525	+0.35%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0528	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000207995	+0.68%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1252	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.00021399	+0.70%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0191	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000214313	+0.85%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1300	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000223394	+0.76%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1905	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000266267	+0.52%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1279	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000270101	+0.52%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0433	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000255427	+0.72%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0182	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000273666	+0.65%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0390	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000310802	+0.39%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0172	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000345438	+0.18%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.1014	✗	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.00041082	-0.65%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0896	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000352552	+0.07%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1587	✓	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000346175	+0.25%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0028	✓	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000346798	+0.38%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0340	✗	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000392824	-0.07%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0857	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000409863	-0.18%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0350	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000404485	-0.08%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0148	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000361797	+0.25%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1106	✓	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000405826	+0.01%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1377	✗	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.0004461	-0.25%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0153	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000508461	-0.32%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1076	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000521201	-0.34%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0051	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000539561	-0.43%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0241	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000523803	-0.40%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0354	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.0005679	-0.54%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0534	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000578334	-0.63%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0388	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000547556	-0.44%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0230	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000596882	-0.64%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0883	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000644304	-1.01%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0803	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000552212	-0.47%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1676	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000577552	-0.58%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0287	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.00057568	-0.56%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0147	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000648054	-1.08%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0598	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000679566	-1.38%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0335	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000659261	-1.20%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0072	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.0006227	-0.91%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0496	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000622236	-0.85%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0042	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000585671	-0.48%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0424	✗	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000571124	-0.24%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0025	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000617342	-0.51%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0548	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000599159	-0.22%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0065	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000613736	-0.29%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0048	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000588496	-0.05%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0435	✗	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000626843	-0.14%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0721	✓	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000612542	+0.04%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0221	✓	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000592949	+0.21%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0404	✓	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000616704	+0.23%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0459	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.00068143	-0.04%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0764	✓	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000683344	+0.05%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0005	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000690735	+0.15%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0185	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000707075	+0.21%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0303	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000619646	+0.69%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0707	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000628328	+0.61%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0037	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000742641	+0.33%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1369	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000816113	+0.26%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1300	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000885565	+0.06%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0448	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001043	-0.00%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1193	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001028	-0.05%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0154	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001097	-0.06%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0173	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001227	-0.02%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1216	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001321	-0.04%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0603	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001344	-0.04%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0604	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001314	-0.02%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0181	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001434	-0.06%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1125	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.00148	-0.08%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0291	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001499	-0.07%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0503	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001576	-0.14%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0190	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001593	-0.15%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0574	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001582	-0.15%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1161	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001535	-0.08%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1462	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001555	-0.10%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0001	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001532	-0.07%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0183	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001596	-0.13%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0290	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001616	-0.15%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0340	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001623	-0.14%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0924	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001517	-0.04%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.0961	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001477	+0.01%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0150	✗	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001585	-0.03%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1355	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001773	-0.26%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.1004	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001697	-0.18%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0929	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.00202	-0.91%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0201	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002355	-2.58%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.1012	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001624	-0.35%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3755	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001667	-0.56%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0353	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001291	-0.03%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3011	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001508	-0.17%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1868	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001373	-0.12%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2901	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001547	-0.26%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0429	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001476	-0.21%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1010	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001583	-0.33%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0468	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.00169	-0.44%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1114	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001553	-0.21%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0031	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001927	-0.85%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1762	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001649	-0.25%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0928	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001824	-0.60%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0030	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001745	-0.41%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0367	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001646	-0.41%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3059	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002337	-2.78%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1755	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001514	-0.39%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4426	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001657	-0.51%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1064	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001685	-0.51%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0634	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.00176	-0.69%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0358	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001654	-0.69%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0950	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.00183	-0.94%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0839	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001981	-1.25%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0659	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001802	-0.86%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0816	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001756	-0.84%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0290	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002037	-1.12%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1482	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001519	-1.39%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2816	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001308	-4.26%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1706	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001863	-1.59%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2901	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002267	-1.01%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1975	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002237	-1.18%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0097	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002678	-0.97%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1748	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002838	-1.19%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0322	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002638	-1.71%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1088	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004715	-1.64%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5431	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004923	-1.82%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0074	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006332	-2.30%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2351	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005112	-1.83%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1993	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001493	-2.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001227	-7.30%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.2099	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001201	-8.97%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0583	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001601	-7.03%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.1912	✓	1.00