AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s9

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 459

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

152

of 153 predictions shown

direction hit

58.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0358

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0050

actual +0.0023

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.37325	0.368058	-1.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.38
2026-10-21	oos	0.3753	0.369807	-1.46%	0.37325	-0.55%	0.0084	✓	0.38
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.33945	-1.09%	0.3753	+9.35%	0.0955	✗	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.410902	-2.83%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1860	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.314368	-1.54%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2975	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.368136	-2.71%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1463	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.290525	-1.01%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2651	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.281403	-1.12%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0462	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.264082	-1.66%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0712	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.235241	-0.87%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1441	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.230966	-0.49%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0168	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227534	-0.31%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0348	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.23177	-0.31%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0214	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237939	-0.32%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0261	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.231304	-0.32%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0246	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.225686	-0.21%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0409	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.232292	-0.11%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0087	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.244875	-0.11%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0500	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.261571	-0.20%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0590	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.265272	-0.40%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0261	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.25936	-0.34%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0247	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.257734	-0.32%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0125	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.24478	-0.33%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0443	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.244275	-0.40%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0061	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.242424	-0.32%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0101	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.251521	-0.39%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0254	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.24479	-0.33%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0306	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.262385	-0.59%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0688	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.254037	-0.61%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0407	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.251069	-0.76%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0178	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.254585	-1.04%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0088	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.246026	-0.74%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0480	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.235741	-1.32%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0008	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.223662	-0.90%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0666	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.231221	-1.86%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0276	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.253261	-3.74%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1327	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155649	-0.06%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5222	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159129	-0.14%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0292	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164265	-0.29%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0045	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.17036	-1.15%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0522	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166468	-0.17%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0411	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153305	+0.00%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0833	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148527	+0.05%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0224	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.158329	-0.01%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0411	✓	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.165701	-0.15%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0431	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160275	+0.02%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0438	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.165789	+0.05%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0166	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.170518	+0.04%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0357	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.172277	-0.01%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0128	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.196105	-0.02%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1090	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.183932	-0.15%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0113	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189908	-0.15%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0292	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.193506	-0.07%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0023	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190914	-0.07%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0027	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.199616	-0.04%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0368	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201942	-0.03%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0161	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.208696	+0.09%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0027	✗	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.210875	+0.06%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0267	✗	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.209284	+0.04%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0007	✓	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.202121	+0.16%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0402	✓	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.207185	+0.06%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0425	✗	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.203612	+0.05%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0079	✓	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.204851	-0.02%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0099	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.19056	-0.23%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0012	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.179233	-0.37%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0106	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.169604	-0.61%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0136	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173088	-0.61%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0176	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.173011	-0.60%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0220	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177307	-0.58%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0153	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177634	-0.57%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0033	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179297	-0.53%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0044	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.183848	-0.54%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0200	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.190014	-0.59%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0254	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.201532	-0.72%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0460	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.205857	-0.79%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0027	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.204745	-0.87%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0144	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.207613	-1.25%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0054	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188449	-0.92%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0988	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.180192	-0.80%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0598	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.166692	-0.63%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0766	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170092	-0.94%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0239	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.180677	-1.00%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0504	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.169246	-1.34%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0629	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.159515	-0.77%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0738	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151129	-0.57%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0962	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.1492	-0.60%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0037	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.15249	-0.53%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0167	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.153692	-0.55%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0053	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.16168	-0.44%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0158	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.162832	-0.53%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0214	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153628	-0.47%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0597	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153151	-0.32%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0252	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157752	-0.22%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0081	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.15966	-0.18%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0023	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.15552	-0.24%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0053	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153549	-0.23%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0058	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154442	-0.20%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0015	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157641	-0.23%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0349	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159197	-0.22%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0098	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163868	-0.17%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0095	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161575	-0.14%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0207	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.157006	-0.25%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0218	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162536	-0.16%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0038	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.167058	-0.17%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0252	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.169316	-0.17%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0049	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167747	-0.18%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0073	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166562	-0.20%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0094	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170781	-0.19%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0018	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178936	-0.23%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0318	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179812	-0.27%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0106	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183302	-0.35%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0262	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176669	-0.33%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0294	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170402	-0.32%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0193	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.174075	-0.39%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0503	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.160947	-0.31%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0532	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165618	-0.29%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0078	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166423	-0.32%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0160	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168317	-0.32%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0013	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172485	-0.36%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0199	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170315	-0.31%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0101	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.173994	-0.35%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0079	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.181107	-0.41%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0037	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186645	-0.48%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0009	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.190177	-0.48%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0280	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.197145	-0.61%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0119	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189395	-0.50%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0320	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.192202	-0.98%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0214	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.201323	-1.17%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0064	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.19779	-1.01%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0521	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.195239	-0.94%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0357	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.191904	-0.77%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0159	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189293	-0.58%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0034	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.189565	-0.75%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0095	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.192179	-0.91%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0058	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.17473	-0.38%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0705	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.175325	-0.24%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0043	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.182907	-0.38%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0178	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.18274	-0.41%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0085	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.177315	+0.06%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0052	✗	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.177175	+0.16%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0031	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.191406	-0.21%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0344	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.209127	-0.32%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0828	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.205063	-0.60%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0629	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220467	-0.65%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.221019	-0.58%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0352	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.2179	-0.43%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0226	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.217211	-0.48%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0020	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.214112	-0.41%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0211	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.221152	-0.56%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0173	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.22659	-0.36%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.232436	-0.37%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0033	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.230509	-0.39%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0085	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.241431	-0.40%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0467	✓	1.00