AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s9

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

151

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

56.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0359

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0051

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.319231	-0.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.339682	-1.03%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0539	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.409348	-3.19%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1822	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.315155	-1.30%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2950	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.367208	-2.96%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1437	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.290897	-0.89%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2638	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.281853	-0.97%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0446	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.265016	-1.32%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0676	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.235999	-0.55%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1409	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.231406	-0.30%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0149	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227628	-0.27%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0344	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231856	-0.28%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0217	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237988	-0.30%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0263	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.231353	-0.30%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0244	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.225435	-0.32%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0420	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.231731	-0.35%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0063	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.244268	-0.36%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0475	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260921	-0.45%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0565	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.264733	-0.61%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0241	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258745	-0.58%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0271	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.25703	-0.59%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0152	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.244142	-0.59%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0469	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243606	-0.67%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0088	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.241648	-0.64%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0133	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.250478	-0.80%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0213	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.243568	-0.83%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0356	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.260659	-1.25%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0622	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.252141	-1.35%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0482	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.249003	-1.58%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0261	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.25177	-2.13%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0199	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.243396	-1.80%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0587	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.233694	-2.18%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0095	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.222135	-1.58%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0735	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.229874	-2.43%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0218	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.252175	-4.15%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1284	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155721	-0.02%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5217	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159267	-0.05%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0301	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164219	-0.32%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0047	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.170811	-0.89%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0548	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166673	-0.05%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0399	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153629	+0.21%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0812	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.14892	+0.32%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0197	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.158667	+0.20%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0433	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.166101	+0.09%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0455	✗	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160606	+0.22%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0418	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.165987	+0.17%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0178	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.170687	+0.14%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0367	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.172455	+0.09%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0139	✗	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.196011	-0.07%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1085	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.184002	-0.11%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0109	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189873	-0.17%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0291	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.193221	-0.22%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0008	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.19057	-0.25%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0045	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.199176	-0.26%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0346	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201551	-0.22%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0141	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.208135	-0.18%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0000	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.210448	-0.14%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0247	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.208927	-0.13%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0024	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.201679	-0.06%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0423	✗	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.206778	-0.13%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0405	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.203203	-0.15%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0100	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.20443	-0.23%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0119	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.190536	-0.24%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0014	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.179505	-0.22%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0091	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.170157	-0.29%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0169	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173609	-0.31%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0206	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.173488	-0.32%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0248	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177722	-0.35%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0177	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177998	-0.36%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0012	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179603	-0.36%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0027	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.184126	-0.39%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0215	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.190278	-0.46%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0268	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.201721	-0.63%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0470	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.205901	-0.77%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0025	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.204736	-0.88%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0145	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.207476	-1.32%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0048	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188529	-0.88%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0983	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.180297	-0.74%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0593	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.166985	-0.46%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0749	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170491	-0.70%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0262	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.180946	-0.85%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0519	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.169824	-1.01%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0595	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.160099	-0.40%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0701	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151624	-0.25%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0929	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149781	-0.21%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0002	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.152954	-0.23%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0197	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.154155	-0.26%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0083	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.161976	-0.26%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0176	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.163135	-0.34%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0233	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153964	-0.25%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0575	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153391	-0.17%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0236	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.15789	-0.13%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0089	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159765	-0.12%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0030	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155677	-0.14%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0043	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153687	-0.14%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0049	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154545	-0.13%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0022	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157759	-0.15%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0357	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159299	-0.16%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0105	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163928	-0.14%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0098	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161618	-0.11%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0205	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.157125	-0.17%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0225	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162589	-0.13%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0041	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.167122	-0.14%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0256	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.169373	-0.13%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0053	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167827	-0.13%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0077	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166682	-0.13%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0102	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170894	-0.12%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0025	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.179069	-0.16%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0326	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.17996	-0.19%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0114	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183482	-0.25%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0272	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.17681	-0.25%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0286	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170519	-0.25%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0187	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.174209	-0.31%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0511	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.161113	-0.21%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0522	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165659	-0.27%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0076	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166499	-0.27%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0165	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.16838	-0.28%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0009	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172552	-0.32%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0203	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170395	-0.27%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0096	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.174052	-0.31%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0075	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.181108	-0.41%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0037	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186595	-0.51%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0006	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.190095	-0.53%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0276	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.196984	-0.69%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0110	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189305	-0.55%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0325	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.192372	-0.89%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0223	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.201401	-1.13%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0068	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.197795	-1.00%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0520	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.195205	-0.96%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0359	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.191863	-0.79%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0161	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189259	-0.60%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0032	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.189626	-0.72%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0099	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.192265	-0.87%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0062	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.174939	-0.26%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0693	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.1755	-0.14%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0033	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.183105	-0.27%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0189	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.183054	-0.24%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0068	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.17751	+0.18%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0063	✗	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.177376	+0.27%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0020	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.191874	+0.04%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0368	✗	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.209645	-0.07%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0853	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.205785	-0.25%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0594	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220675	-0.55%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0002	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.221012	-0.58%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0352	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.217888	-0.44%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0227	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.217225	-0.47%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0020	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.214123	-0.41%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0211	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.221135	-0.57%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0173	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.22635	-0.46%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0025	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.231983	-0.56%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0014	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.230065	-0.58%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0104	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.240912	-0.61%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0445	✓	1.00