TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s7
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
85.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.3748
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0511
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001539 | -9.49% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.00153 | -9.37% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001539 | -8.22% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001489 | -6.74% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.00119 | -1.89% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001289 | -1.70% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001316 | -1.39% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001423 | -1.68% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1529 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001485 | -1.34% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.0986 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001532 | -2.01% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0927 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001714 | -1.62% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0717 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002148 | -3.86% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5511 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002211 | -3.42% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5041 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002586 | -5.00% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6484 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002184 | -2.81% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4169 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002452 | -4.73% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.4675 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002107 | -6.85% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.2698 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002227 | -7.73% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.1979 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.002883 | -6.59% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2217 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.002936 | -6.96% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2269 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003738 | -5.95% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.2938 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003497 | -7.05% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4043 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.00355 | -7.70% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3181 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003631 | -7.95% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.4956 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004753 | -5.33% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7046 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005294 | -4.77% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5636 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.005945 | -4.89% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6371 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006736 | -5.96% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5324 | ✓ | 1.00 |