DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s6

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

164

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

59.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1230

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0051

actual -0.0319

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	1.9561	-1.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.8072	-1.65%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.0985	✗	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	2.9913	-2.53%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.5007	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.2529	-3.40%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0561	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.467	-3.45%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0368	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	10.776	-7.45%	3.591	-69.16%	1.0974	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	2.2451	-2.79%	11.643	+404.14%	1.6536	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.9037	-2.66%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.2358	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.9801	-2.45%	2.983	-26.89%	0.2697	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	5.366	-2.56%	4.08	-25.91%	0.2905	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	8.9703	-1.89%	5.507	-39.77%	0.4645	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	16.9103	-1.97%	9.143	-47.00%	0.6241	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	16.3419	-2.23%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.0497	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	16.7789	-2.25%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.0142	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	24.0303	-1.95%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.3173	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	42.6287	-2.11%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.5267	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	82.4721	-3.49%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6362	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.00037211	-0.77%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000375108	-1.24%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0303	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249397	-0.04%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3642	✗	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268685	-0.12%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0675	✓	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000307827	-0.35%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1798	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000269919	-0.10%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1524	✗	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000280636	-0.13%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0542	✓	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.00030922	-0.32%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0721	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000300651	-0.28%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0384	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278572	-0.08%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0235	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000302223	-0.22%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0727	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000303667	-0.24%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0400	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330535	-0.44%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0777	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.00030671	-0.26%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0796	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.00032544	-0.42%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0706	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000298838	-0.19%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0820	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000303863	-0.21%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0005	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000319901	-0.34%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0289	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000313741	-0.24%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0219	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000405215	-1.31%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2387	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000363964	-0.99%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1071	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000322403	-0.40%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0976	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000325781	-0.65%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0031	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000291397	-0.24%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1399	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000228573	+0.83%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2617	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000240711	+0.84%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0577	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000209777	+1.54%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1167	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000215913	+1.61%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0281	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000217075	+2.15%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1428	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.00022555	+1.74%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1809	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000268365	+1.31%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1358	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000272202	+1.30%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0356	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.00025782	+1.66%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0089	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000276042	+1.52%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0476	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000312777	+1.03%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0236	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000347269	+0.72%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.1066	✗	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.00041215	-0.33%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0928	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.00035424	+0.55%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1539	✓	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000348082	+0.81%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0027	✓	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000348995	+1.01%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0403	✗	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000394258	+0.29%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0894	✗	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.00041107	+0.11%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0379	✗	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000405615	+0.20%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0120	✓	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000363801	+0.80%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1051	✓	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000407303	+0.37%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1413	✗	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000446487	-0.16%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0162	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000507774	-0.46%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1062	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000520229	-0.53%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0070	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000538332	-0.66%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0219	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000523033	-0.55%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0369	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000566703	-0.75%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0512	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000577792	-0.72%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0379	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000547821	-0.40%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0235	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.00059767	-0.50%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0896	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000646152	-0.73%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0832	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.00055347	-0.24%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1653	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000579167	-0.30%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0315	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000577514	-0.24%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0115	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000651897	-0.49%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0657	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000684788	-0.63%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0412	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000664159	-0.47%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0146	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000626857	-0.25%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0430	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000626519	-0.17%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0111	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000589359	+0.15%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0361	✓	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000574554	+0.36%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0034	✓	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000621663	+0.19%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0618	✗	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000603162	+0.44%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0001	✓	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.00061826	+0.45%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0121	✗	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000593102	+0.73%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0357	✓	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000631861	+0.66%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0801	✗	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000617726	+0.89%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0137	✓	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000598327	+1.12%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0314	✓	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000622263	+1.13%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0548	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000687425	+0.84%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0852	✗	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000689581	+0.96%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0096	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000697057	+1.07%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0277	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000713134	+1.07%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0388	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000626303	+1.77%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0600	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000635441	+1.75%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0149	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000748586	+1.13%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1449	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000821497	+0.92%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1366	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000889708	+0.53%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0494	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001044	+0.12%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1205	✗	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001029	+0.14%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0136	✓	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001098	+0.01%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0179	✗	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001225	-0.14%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1204	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001318	-0.28%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0579	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001342	-0.20%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0589	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001313	-0.07%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0186	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001433	-0.11%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1121	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001479	-0.12%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0286	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001498	-0.15%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0511	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001574	-0.23%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0181	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001591	-0.23%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0566	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001581	-0.20%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1156	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001533	-0.20%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1474	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001553	-0.25%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0015	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001529	-0.24%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0199	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001593	-0.32%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0271	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001612	-0.37%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0318	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001619	-0.36%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0902	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001514	-0.25%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.0981	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001475	-0.12%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0138	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001583	-0.15%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1342	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.00177	-0.47%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0983	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001694	-0.35%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0946	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.002017	-1.08%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0185	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002338	-3.26%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.0942	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001622	-0.46%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3767	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001662	-0.83%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0380	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001293	+0.12%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.2996	✓	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001508	-0.19%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1866	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001373	-0.11%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2900	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001544	-0.46%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0409	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001474	-0.37%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1027	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001578	-0.63%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0497	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001683	-0.80%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1078	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.00155	-0.38%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0013	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001919	-1.29%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1718	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001646	-0.44%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0948	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001817	-0.98%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0009	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.00174	-0.71%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0337	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001641	-0.70%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3088	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002308	-3.99%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1629	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001511	-0.58%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4445	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001652	-0.77%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1038	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001682	-0.71%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0613	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001753	-1.04%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0394	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001648	-1.04%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0985	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.00182	-1.44%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0788	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001966	-1.98%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0585	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001793	-1.39%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0869	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001749	-1.27%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0334	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002017	-2.10%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1383	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001527	-0.82%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2759	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001357	-0.69%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1340	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001871	-1.18%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2943	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.00226	-1.33%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1943	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002238	-1.14%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0093	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002669	-1.31%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1714	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002825	-1.63%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0277	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002643	-1.52%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1068	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004693	-2.08%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5386	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004903	-2.21%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0034	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006281	-3.09%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2271	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005085	-2.34%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.2045	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001516	-1.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001305	-1.40%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1482	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001302	-1.30%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0226	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001703	-1.12%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2528	✓	1.00