8=======>

LIT

Lighter · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id
#67
symbol
LIT
variant
–
chain
Ethereum
address
0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2
cohort
datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar
2026-01-22
predictions
792
+1d+7d+30d

Track record at +30d

assessed
234
of 264 predictions shown
direction hit
48.3%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.3382
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0585
actual +0.0948

History

as ofsplitanchor pxpred pxpred Δactual pxactual Δalpha errhitβ90d
2026-10-21oos3.42193.1698-7.37%–pending––1.27
2026-10-20oos3.38263.1421-7.11%–pending––1.29
2026-10-19oos3.09472.8799-6.94%–pending––1.27
2026-10-18oos3.07522.8616-6.95%–pending––1.30
2026-10-17oos3.11462.894-7.08%–pending––1.30
2026-10-16oos3.17522.9462-7.21%–pending––1.30
2026-10-15oos3.02532.8181-6.85%–pending––1.30
2026-10-14oos3.08422.8673-7.04%–pending––1.31
2026-10-13oos3.34763.081-7.96%–pending––1.29
2026-10-12oos3.37593.1105-7.86%–pending––1.31
2026-10-11oos3.83473.4773-9.32%–pending––1.31
2026-10-10oos3.63723.3355-8.30%–pending––1.38
2026-10-09oos3.62623.3423-7.83%–pending––1.38
2026-10-08oos3.60613.3398-7.39%–pending––1.38
2026-10-07oos3.57273.3103-7.35%–pending––1.44
2026-10-06oos3.81543.5047-8.14%–pending––1.42
2026-10-05oos4.01873.6909-8.16%–pending––1.43
2026-10-04oos3.66433.3906-7.47%–pending––1.47
2026-10-03oos3.56673.318-6.97%–pending––1.48
2026-10-02oos3.55123.313-6.71%–pending––1.49
2026-10-01oos3.80483.5409-6.94%–pending––1.48
2026-09-30oos3.94993.6686-7.12%–pending––1.50
2026-09-29oos3.93283.6267-7.78%–pending––1.48
2026-09-28oos4.44134.0296-9.27%–pending––1.51
2026-09-27oos4.65474.181-10.18%–pending––1.47
2026-09-26oos4.8444.3457-10.29%–pending––1.48
2026-09-25oos4.85224.3779-9.78%–pending––1.48
2026-09-24oos5.07294.5941-9.44%–pending––1.48
2026-09-23oos5.31964.8398-9.02%–pending––1.47
2026-09-22oos5.06674.6106-9.00%–pending––1.54
2026-09-21oos4.73864.3057-9.14%3.4219-27.79%0.1637✓1.43
2026-09-20oos4.77454.2962-10.02%3.3826-29.15%0.2750✓1.66
2026-09-19oos4.80924.3539-9.47%3.0947-35.65%0.3536✓1.65
2026-09-18oos4.76874.3488-8.80%3.0752-35.51%0.3693✓1.64
2026-09-17oos4.81074.3978-8.58%3.1146-35.26%0.4615✓1.83
2026-09-16oos4.60354.2236-8.25%3.1752-31.03%0.4083✓1.81
2026-09-15oos4.01953.7228-7.38%3.0253-24.73%0.3579✓1.81
2026-09-14oos4.38854.0448-7.83%3.0842-29.72%0.3461✓1.77
2026-09-13oos4.11323.8085-7.41%3.3476-18.61%0.2661✓1.74
2026-09-12oos4.21583.9091-7.27%3.3759-19.92%0.2441✓1.73
2026-09-11oos4.35184.0467-7.01%3.8347-11.88%0.1925✓1.72
2026-09-10oos4.29233.9992-6.83%3.6372-15.26%0.2337✓1.74
2026-09-09oos4.52624.2423-6.27%3.6262-19.88%0.2481✓1.72
2026-09-08oos4.82974.5147-6.52%3.6061-25.33%0.2958✓1.75
2026-09-07oos4.72484.4596-5.61%3.5727-24.38%0.3140✓1.79
2026-09-06oos4.51484.3142-4.44%3.8154-15.49%0.2326✓1.75
2026-09-05oos4.75474.5336-4.65%4.0187-15.48%0.2459✓1.75
2026-09-04oos4.82894.6278-4.16%3.6643-24.12%0.3709✓1.67
2026-09-03oos4.44214.3272-2.59%3.5667-19.71%0.2668✓1.75
2026-09-02oos3.79143.6491-3.75%3.5512-6.34%0.1621✓1.52
2026-09-01oos3.523.4087-3.16%3.8048+8.09%0.0331✓1.56
2026-08-31oos3.56643.4699-2.71%3.9499+10.75%0.0455✗1.37
2026-08-30oos3.52833.4298-2.79%3.9328+11.46%0.0686✗0.92
2026-08-29oos3.55373.4675-2.43%4.4413+24.97%0.1878✗0.92
2026-08-28oos3.49623.4267-1.99%4.6547+33.14%0.2309✗0.92
2026-08-27oos3.71083.6913-0.52%4.844+30.54%0.2265✗0.90
2026-08-26oos3.45183.4027-1.42%4.8522+40.57%0.3004✗0.88
2026-08-25oos3.28373.2518-0.97%5.0729+54.48%0.3826✗0.86
2026-08-24oos3.39993.3949-0.15%5.3196+56.46%0.3913✗0.88
2026-08-23oos3.57213.5316-1.13%5.0667+41.84%0.2603✗0.97
2026-08-22oos3.18943.1936+0.13%4.7386+48.58%0.2829✓0.96
2026-08-21oos3.12673.1935+2.13%4.7745+52.70%0.3677✓0.97
2026-08-20oos2.66822.6523-0.60%4.8092+80.24%0.5082✗0.81
2026-08-19oos2.60372.4932-4.24%4.7687+83.15%0.4957✗0.99
2026-08-18oos2.35882.1878-7.25%4.8107+103.95%0.6315✗0.94
2026-08-17oos2.332.153-7.60%4.6035+97.57%0.5970✗0.98
2026-08-16oos2.27712.1045-7.58%4.0195+76.51%0.4639✗0.99
2026-08-15oos2.2622.0861-7.77%4.3885+94.01%0.5326✗0.98
2026-08-14oos2.2352.0664-7.54%4.1132+84.03%0.4929✗0.99
2026-08-13oos2.27132.1022-7.44%4.2158+85.61%0.5038✗0.97
2026-08-12oos2.33562.1631-7.39%4.3518+86.32%0.4984✗1.02
2026-08-11oos2.41812.2386-7.42%4.2923+77.50%0.4635✗1.01
2026-08-10oos2.38242.2046-7.46%4.5262+89.98%0.5123✗1.02
2026-08-09oos2.30352.1414-7.04%4.8297+109.67%0.6102✗1.07
2026-08-08oos2.28222.124-6.93%4.7248+107.03%0.5873✗1.07
2026-08-07oos2.29842.1474-6.57%4.5148+96.43%0.5179✗1.05
2026-08-06oos2.37442.2064-7.07%4.7547+100.25%0.5369✗1.06
2026-08-05oos2.18492.0406-6.60%4.8289+121.01%0.6341✗1.08
2026-08-04oos2.05841.9199-6.73%4.4421+115.80%0.5900✗1.05
2026-08-03oos2.00551.8637-7.07%3.7914+89.05%0.5062✗1.03
2026-08-02oos2.03281.8841-7.31%3.52+73.16%0.4155✗1.06
2026-08-01oos2.01721.8655-7.52%3.5664+76.80%0.4157✗1.03
2026-07-31oos2.06691.9147-7.37%3.5283+70.70%0.3915✗1.04
2026-07-30oos2.282.1316-6.51%3.5537+55.87%0.3293✗0.96
2026-07-29oos2.17812.0298-6.81%3.4962+60.52%0.3590✗0.94
2026-07-28oos2.29842.1387-6.95%3.7108+61.45%0.3416✗0.91
2026-07-27oos2.12861.9795-7.00%3.4518+62.16%0.3628✗0.90
2026-07-26oos2.14312.0115-6.14%3.2837+53.22%0.3275✗0.88
2026-07-25oos2.06261.9204-6.89%3.3999+64.84%0.3850✗0.90
2026-07-24oos2.03191.8923-6.87%3.5721+75.80%0.4644✗0.89
2026-07-23oos2.1622.029-6.15%3.1894+47.52%0.3075✗0.86
2026-07-22oos2.30052.1884-4.87%3.1267+35.92%0.2173✗0.82
2026-07-21oos2.34532.2312-4.86%2.6682+13.77%0.1024✗0.82
2026-07-20oos2.1792.0507-5.89%2.6037+19.49%0.1937✗0.74
2026-07-19oos2.20982.0606-6.76%2.3588+6.74%0.1352✗0.75
2026-07-18oos2.25642.1114-6.43%2.33+3.26%0.1021✗0.73
2026-07-17oos2.28922.1351-6.73%2.2771-0.53%0.0779✗0.81
2026-07-16oos2.28592.1273-6.94%2.262-1.05%0.0714✓0.85
2026-07-15oos2.41662.2397-7.32%2.235-7.51%0.0197✓0.80
2026-07-14oos2.59282.3647-8.80%2.2713-12.40%0.0210✓0.79
2026-07-13oos2.30422.0725-10.06%2.3356+1.36%0.1071✗0.68
2026-07-12oos2.63192.3532-10.59%2.4181-8.12%0.0292✓0.59
2026-07-11oos2.57742.3076-10.47%2.3824-7.56%0.0306✓0.60
2026-07-10oos2.68962.4146-10.23%2.3035-14.36%0.0547✓0.68
2026-07-09oos2.39652.1553-10.07%2.2822-4.77%0.0401✓0.63
2026-07-08oos2.332.0926-10.19%2.2984-1.35%0.0653✓0.68
2026-07-07oos2.45752.2096-10.08%2.3744-3.38%0.0622✓0.66
2026-07-06oos2.57692.3232-9.85%2.1849-15.21%0.0676✓0.67
2026-07-05oos2.4582.2206-9.66%2.0584-16.26%0.0808✓0.67
2026-07-04oos2.2012.0017-9.05%2.0055-8.88%0.0020✓0.65
2026-07-03oos2.11361.9313-8.63%2.0328-3.82%0.0414✓0.64
2026-07-02oos2.06891.8995-8.19%2.0172-2.50%0.0471✓0.63
2026-07-01oos2.07121.9001-8.26%2.0669-0.21%0.0536✓0.65
2026-06-30oos1.8491.7225-6.84%2.28+23.31%0.2246✗0.55
2026-06-29oos1.86031.7227-7.40%2.1781+17.08%0.2012✗0.55
2026-06-28oos1.72741.6055-7.06%2.2984+33.05%0.3182✗0.57
2026-06-27oos1.71961.5991-7.01%2.1286+23.78%0.2522✗0.56
2026-06-26oos1.82281.6876-7.42%2.1431+17.57%0.1911✗0.56
2026-06-25oos1.60911.5062-6.39%2.0626+28.18%0.2743✗0.54
2026-06-24oos1.69591.5798-6.84%2.0319+19.82%0.2252✗0.53
2026-06-23oos1.50471.4111-6.22%2.162+43.68%0.4002✗0.70
2026-06-22oos1.60941.5003-6.77%2.3005+42.95%0.4059✗0.66
2026-06-21oos1.56761.4587-6.95%2.3453+49.61%0.4422✗0.65
2026-06-20oos1.55671.4475-7.01%2.179+39.98%0.3994✗0.63
2026-06-19oos1.54561.4389-6.90%2.2098+42.97%0.4163✗0.68
2026-06-18oos1.61181.4991-6.99%2.2564+39.99%0.3882✗0.69
2026-06-17oos1.72071.5952-7.30%2.2892+33.04%0.3666✗0.62
2026-06-16oos1.73351.6065-7.33%2.2859+31.87%0.3706✗0.63
2026-06-15oos1.68961.5688-7.15%2.4166+43.03%0.4483✗0.68
2026-06-14oos1.68671.5621-7.39%2.5928+53.72%0.5138✗0.65
2026-06-13oos1.63191.5164-7.07%2.3042+41.20%0.4414✗0.67
2026-06-12oos1.53731.4335-6.75%2.6319+71.19%0.6056✗0.63
2026-06-11oos1.55811.4439-7.33%2.5774+65.42%0.5773✗0.63
2026-06-10oos1.39161.2968-6.81%2.6896+93.27%0.7065✗0.54
2026-06-09oos1.58311.4552-8.08%2.3965+51.38%0.4860✗0.54
2026-06-08oos1.47451.357-7.97%2.33+58.02%0.5483✗0.59
2026-06-07oos1.43341.3198-7.93%2.4575+71.44%0.6215✗0.60
2026-06-06oos1.43071.3205-7.70%2.5769+80.11%0.6382✗0.60
2026-06-05oos1.50841.382-8.38%2.458+62.95%0.5494✗0.64
2026-06-04oos1.45311.3314-8.38%2.201+51.47%0.5109✗0.72
2026-06-03oos1.78541.597-10.55%2.1136+18.38%0.2981✗0.74
2026-06-02oos1.60391.4404-10.19%2.0689+28.99%0.4398✗0.96
2026-06-01oos1.34381.2275-8.65%2.0712+54.13%0.7673✗1.41
2026-05-31oos1.37651.2612-8.38%1.849+34.33%0.7110✗1.43
2026-05-30oos1.3691.2544-8.37%1.8603+35.89%0.6711✗1.36
2026-05-29oos1.25911.156-8.19%1.7274+37.19%0.6841✗1.35
2026-05-28oos1.17221.0816-7.73%1.7196+46.70%0.7398✗1.35
2026-05-27oos1.13381.0495-7.43%1.8228+60.77%0.8470✗1.38
2026-05-26oos1.18321.0949-7.47%1.6091+35.99%0.7134✗1.37
2026-05-25oos1.37961.2615-8.56%1.6959+22.92%0.5852✗1.22
2026-05-24oos1.29131.1895-7.88%1.5047+16.53%0.4843✗1.21
2026-05-23oos1.22751.1406-7.08%1.6094+31.11%0.5594✗1.19
2026-05-22oos1.19061.1111-6.68%1.5676+31.67%0.5540✗1.19
2026-05-21oos1.4261.309-8.20%1.5567+9.16%0.3784✗1.09
2026-05-20oos1.27641.1888-6.86%1.5456+21.09%0.4812✗1.10
2026-05-19oos1.14151.074-5.91%1.6118+41.20%0.6216✗1.08
2026-05-18oos0.95090.910493-4.25%1.7207+80.95%0.8364✗1.13
2026-05-17oos0.863450.825938-4.34%1.7335+100.76%0.9334✗1.16
2026-05-16oos0.87980.837235-4.84%1.6896+92.04%0.8930✗1.16
2026-05-15oos0.8580.812684-5.28%1.6867+96.59%0.9451✗1.16
2026-05-14oos0.91520.871788-4.74%1.6319+78.31%0.8916✗1.15
2026-05-13oos0.8970.845088-5.79%1.5373+71.39%0.8674✗1.21
2026-05-12oos0.926550.886225-4.35%1.5581+68.16%0.8478✗1.20
2026-05-11oos0.999750.964024-3.57%1.3916+39.19%0.7038✗1.18
2026-05-10oos1.05681.031-2.44%1.5831+49.80%0.7688✗1.18
2026-05-09oos1.05421.0237-2.89%1.4745+39.87%0.6585✗1.19
2026-05-08oos1.0811.0497-2.89%1.4334+32.60%0.5932✗1.19
2026-05-07oos0.990650.958874-3.21%1.4307+44.42%0.7249✗1.19
2026-05-06oos0.953850.941043-1.34%1.5084+58.14%0.8291✗1.24
2026-05-05oos0.966850.954133-1.32%1.4531+50.29%0.6677✗1.04
2026-05-04oos0.90290.890593-1.36%1.7854+97.74%0.9125✗0.98
2026-05-03oos0.92210.90482-1.87%1.6039+73.94%0.7374✗1.00
2026-05-02oos0.9080.887575-2.25%1.3438+48.00%0.5145✗1.01
2026-05-01oos0.90350.886033-1.93%1.3765+52.35%0.5029✗1.02
2026-04-30oos0.883750.865853-2.03%1.369+54.91%0.4929✗1.03
2026-04-29oos0.948450.927585-2.20%1.2591+32.75%0.3387✗1.03
2026-04-28oos0.896050.87996-1.80%1.1722+30.81%0.3289✗1.13
2026-04-27oos0.86350.85146-1.39%1.1338+31.30%0.3320✗1.14
2026-04-26oos0.91640.909948-0.70%1.1832+29.12%0.3048✗1.14
2026-04-25oos0.92960.917719-1.28%1.3796+48.41%0.4137✗1.16
2026-04-24oos0.945550.932561-1.37%1.2913+36.57%0.3330✗1.19
2026-04-23oos0.92440.914884-1.03%1.2275+32.79%0.3191✗1.20
2026-04-22oos0.87920.866227-1.48%1.1906+35.42%0.3610✗1.19
2026-04-21oos0.8980.866152-3.55%1.426+58.80%0.4798✗1.21
2026-04-20oos0.89910.860541-4.29%1.2764+41.96%0.3689✗1.21
2026-04-19oos0.890750.845454-5.09%1.1415+28.15%0.2528✗1.21
2026-04-18oos0.978850.929094-5.08%0.9509-2.86%0.0043✓1.20
2026-04-17oos1.04881.0047-4.21%0.86345-17.67%0.1562✓1.19
2026-04-16oos1.04590.987901-5.55%0.8798-15.88%0.1619✓1.20
2026-04-15oos1.04190.979483-5.99%0.858-17.65%0.1981✓1.20
2026-04-14oos1.02570.963225-6.10%0.9152-10.78%0.1575✓1.20
2026-04-13oos1.14331.078-5.71%0.897-21.54%0.2590✓1.19
2026-04-12oos1.09261.0185-6.78%0.92655-15.20%0.2495✓1.20
2026-04-11oos1.20611.1368-5.74%0.99975-17.11%0.2605✓1.18
2026-04-10oos1.13681.0708-5.80%1.0568-7.04%0.1532✓1.18
2026-04-09oos1.01450.948293-6.53%1.0542+3.91%0.0286✓1.16
2026-04-08oos0.999250.933051-6.62%1.081+8.18%0.0080✓1.16
2026-04-07oos1.07631.0092-6.24%0.99065-7.96%0.1411✓1.15
2026-04-06oos1.02480.952731-7.03%0.95385-6.92%0.1915✓1.15
2026-04-05oos1.0080.940699-6.68%0.96685-4.09%0.1551✓1.15
2026-04-04oos0.98710.920781-6.72%0.9029-8.53%0.2162✓1.15
2026-04-03oos0.989350.922614-6.75%0.9221-6.80%0.1842✓1.15
2026-04-02oos0.94860.886831-6.51%0.908-4.28%0.1625✓1.15
2026-04-01oos0.89060.837429-5.97%0.9035+1.45%0.0851✓1.16
2026-03-31oos0.87250.820308-5.98%0.88375+1.29%0.0556✓1.16
2026-03-30oos0.80730.764048-5.36%0.94845+17.48%0.0715✗1.14
2026-03-29oos0.826750.777947-5.90%0.89605+8.38%0.0262✓1.15
2026-03-28oos0.858250.803073-6.43%0.8635+0.61%0.1043✓1.15
2026-03-27oos0.88250.82377-6.65%0.9164+3.84%0.0892✓1.15
2026-03-26oos0.911650.848091-6.97%0.9296+1.97%0.0485✓1.15
2026-03-25oos0.99570.948936-4.70%0.94555-5.04%0.0978✓1.14
2026-03-24oos1.0170.977352-3.89%0.9244-9.10%0.1748✓1.14
2026-03-23oos0.9550.906881-5.04%0.8792-7.94%0.1436✓1.14
2026-03-22oos0.93910.882293-6.05%0.898-4.38%0.1196✓1.16
2026-03-21oos1.05270.995767-5.40%0.8991-14.59%0.2125✓1.15
2026-03-20oos1.06341.0191-4.17%0.89075-16.24%0.1877✓1.15
2026-03-19oos1.19281.147-3.84%0.97885-17.94%0.2523✓1.17
2026-03-18oos1.21161.1789-2.70%1.0488-13.44%0.2098✓1.18
2026-03-17oos1.29611.2838-0.95%1.0459-19.30%0.2241✓1.17
2026-03-16oos1.16271.1532-0.82%1.0419-10.39%0.1007✓1.18
2026-03-15oos1.08521.0511-3.14%1.0257-5.47%0.0458✓1.16
2026-03-14oos1.10781.0601-4.31%1.1433+3.20%0.0235✓1.18
2026-03-13oos1.09861.0496-4.46%1.0926-0.55%0.0433✓1.18
2026-03-12oos1.15231.1035-4.24%1.2061+4.66%0.0466✗1.19
2026-03-11oos1.07171.0118-5.59%1.1368+6.07%0.0706✗1.18
2026-03-10oos1.05590.994661-5.80%1.0145-3.92%0.0107✓1.18
2026-03-09oos1.02040.951222-6.77%0.99925-2.07%0.0047✓1.17
2026-03-08oos1.01980.946637-7.17%1.0763+5.55%0.0255✓1.19
2026-03-07oos1.12951.067-5.53%1.0248-9.27%0.0680✓1.18
2026-03-06oos1.13861.0844-4.76%1.008-11.47%0.0885✓1.18
2026-03-05oos1.20911.1701-3.23%0.9871-18.36%0.1089✓1.18
2026-03-04oos1.37151.349-1.64%0.98935-27.86%0.2161✓1.15
2026-03-03oos1.29821.2549-3.34%0.9486-26.93%0.2550✓1.16
2026-03-02oos1.35921.3101-3.61%0.8906-34.48%0.3737✓1.16
2026-03-01oos1.35871.3087-3.68%0.8725-35.78%0.4499✓1.21
2026-02-28oos1.38571.3453-2.92%0.8073-41.74%0.5065✓1.21
2026-02-27oos1.35681.3154-3.06%0.82675-39.07%0.4662✓1.21
2026-02-26oos1.42831.3892-2.74%0.85825-39.91%0.4605✓1.21
2026-02-25oos1.45511.4164-2.66%0.8825-39.35%0.4437✓1.21
2026-02-24oos1.42981.3801-3.47%0.91165-36.24%0.5057✓1.29
2026-02-23oos1.3891.3417-3.41%0.9957-28.32%0.4245✓1.28
2026-02-22oos1.44631.3982-3.33%1.017-29.69%0.3729✓1.29
2026-02-21oos1.52441.4746-3.27%0.955-37.35%0.4890✓1.30
2026-02-20oos1.53191.4789-3.46%0.9391-38.70%0.4521✓1.00
2026-02-19oos1.47661.4211-3.76%1.0527-28.71%0.3287✓1.00
2026-02-18oos1.4461.3919-3.74%1.0634-26.46%0.3288✓1.00
2026-02-17oos1.58881.5238-4.09%1.1928-24.92%0.2806✓1.00
2026-02-16oos1.68791.6137-4.39%1.2116-28.22%0.3207✓1.00
2026-02-15oos1.6771.5975-4.74%1.2961-22.71%0.2812✓1.00
2026-02-14oos1.64781.5661-4.96%1.1627-29.44%0.3683✓1.00
2026-02-13oos1.59721.5148-5.16%1.0852-32.06%0.3903✓1.00
2026-02-12oos1.42871.3599-4.82%1.1078-22.46%0.2782✓1.00
2026-02-11oos1.4161.3493-4.71%1.0986-22.42%0.2624✓1.00
2026-02-10oos1.47021.3965-5.01%1.1523-21.62%0.2170✓1.00
2026-02-09oos1.54881.4652-5.40%1.0717-30.80%0.3142✓1.00
2026-02-08oos1.61981.527-5.73%1.0559-34.81%0.3644✓1.00
2026-02-07oos1.62611.5314-5.82%1.0204-37.25%0.3942✓1.00
2026-02-06oos1.66281.5587-6.26%1.0198-38.67%0.3575✓1.00
2026-02-05oos1.43931.3701-4.81%1.1295-21.53%0.2619✓1.00
2026-02-04oos1.57541.4789-6.12%1.1386-27.72%0.1921✓1.00
2026-02-03oos1.4811.3946-5.84%1.2091-18.36%0.0775✓1.00
2026-02-02oos1.59661.4958-6.32%1.3715-14.10%0.0076✓1.00
2026-02-01oos1.51441.4257-5.86%1.2982-14.27%0.0244✓1.00
2026-01-31oos1.56621.4745-5.85%1.3592-13.22%0.0519✓1.00