AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

151

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

57.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0358

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0030

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.319563	-0.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.340886	-0.67%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0575	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.414203	-2.05%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1940	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.316772	-0.79%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2898	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.370453	-2.10%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1525	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.291613	-0.64%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2613	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.28253	-0.73%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0422	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.265224	-1.24%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0669	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.235534	-0.74%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1429	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.230885	-0.52%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0172	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227233	-0.45%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0362	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231491	-0.43%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0202	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237638	-0.45%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0248	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.231038	-0.44%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0258	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.225205	-0.42%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0430	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.231528	-0.44%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0055	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.244129	-0.42%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0469	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.261012	-0.41%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0568	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.265199	-0.43%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0258	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.259113	-0.44%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0256	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.257401	-0.44%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0138	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.24462	-0.40%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0449	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.244154	-0.45%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0066	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.242026	-0.48%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0117	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.251147	-0.54%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0239	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.244384	-0.50%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0323	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.262465	-0.56%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0691	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.254269	-0.52%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0398	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.251651	-0.53%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0155	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.255228	-0.79%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0062	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.246321	-0.62%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0468	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.237004	-0.79%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0046	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.22468	-0.45%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0621	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.232757	-1.21%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0342	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.251236	-4.51%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1247	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.156387	+0.41%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5174	✓	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159927	+0.36%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0342	✗	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.165443	+0.42%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0027	✓	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.1722	-0.09%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0629	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.167643	+0.54%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0341	✓	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.154475	+0.77%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0757	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.149629	+0.79%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0150	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.159645	+0.82%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0494	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.167039	+0.66%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0511	✗	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.16157	+0.82%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0358	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.167005	+0.79%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0239	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.171495	+0.61%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0414	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.173115	+0.47%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0177	✗	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.196495	+0.18%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1110	✗	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.184187	-0.01%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0099	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.190053	-0.08%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0300	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.193562	-0.05%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0026	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190958	-0.05%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0025	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.199556	-0.07%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0365	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201903	-0.05%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0159	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.208611	+0.05%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0023	✗	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.21089	+0.07%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0268	✗	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.20939	+0.09%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0002	✓	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.202166	+0.18%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0399	✓	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.207264	+0.10%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0429	✗	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.203699	+0.10%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0075	✓	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.204965	+0.03%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0093	✓	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.190999	-0.00%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0011	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.179654	-0.14%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0082	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.170073	-0.34%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0164	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173518	-0.36%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0201	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.173395	-0.38%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0243	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177677	-0.38%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0174	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177969	-0.38%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0014	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179584	-0.37%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0028	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.184177	-0.36%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0218	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.190468	-0.36%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0278	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.20227	-0.36%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0497	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.206832	-0.32%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0020	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.205895	-0.32%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0088	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.209283	-0.46%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0134	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.18957	-0.33%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0928	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.181155	-0.27%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0545	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.167414	-0.20%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0723	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.171182	-0.30%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0303	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.181901	-0.33%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0571	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.170598	-0.55%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0549	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.160287	-0.29%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0690	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151848	-0.10%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0914	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149869	-0.15%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0007	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.15309	-0.14%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0206	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.154317	-0.15%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0094	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.162331	-0.04%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0198	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.163496	-0.12%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0255	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.154182	-0.11%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0561	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153595	-0.04%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0223	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.15814	+0.03%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0105	✗	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.160031	+0.05%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0046	✗	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155889	-0.01%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0029	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153835	-0.04%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0039	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154685	-0.04%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0031	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157876	-0.08%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0364	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159406	-0.09%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0111	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.164062	-0.05%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0106	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161759	-0.03%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0196	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.157206	-0.12%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0230	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162697	-0.06%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0048	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.167159	-0.11%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0258	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.16933	-0.16%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0050	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167742	-0.18%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0072	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.16655	-0.21%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0094	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170712	-0.23%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0014	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178872	-0.27%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0315	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179772	-0.29%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0104	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183296	-0.36%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0262	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176591	-0.37%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0298	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.17036	-0.35%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0196	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.174117	-0.36%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0505	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.161014	-0.27%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0528	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165641	-0.28%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0077	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166521	-0.26%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0166	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168413	-0.26%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0007	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172632	-0.27%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0208	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170468	-0.22%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0092	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.174172	-0.25%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0068	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.181301	-0.30%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0048	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186851	-0.37%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0020	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.19037	-0.38%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0290	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.197355	-0.50%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0129	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189627	-0.38%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0308	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.193023	-0.55%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0257	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.202321	-0.68%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0114	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.198623	-0.59%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0479	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.195967	-0.57%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0320	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.192464	-0.48%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0130	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189698	-0.37%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0055	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.190123	-0.46%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0125	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.192792	-0.60%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0089	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.174989	-0.23%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0690	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.17545	-0.17%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0036	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.183048	-0.30%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0186	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.182869	-0.34%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0078	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.177215	+0.01%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0047	✗	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.177064	+0.09%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0037	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.191514	-0.15%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0349	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.209425	-0.18%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0843	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.205593	-0.34%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0603	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220846	-0.48%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0006	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.220992	-0.59%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0353	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.217693	-0.53%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0236	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.21716	-0.50%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0023	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.213979	-0.47%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0217	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.221126	-0.57%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0172	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.226205	-0.53%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.232008	-0.55%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.230107	-0.56%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0102	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.240946	-0.60%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0447	✓	1.00