AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 459

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

152

of 153 predictions shown

direction hit

57.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0360

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0070

actual +0.0023

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.37325	0.368189	-1.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.38
2026-10-21	oos	0.3753	0.368121	-1.91%	0.37325	-0.55%	0.0130	✓	0.38
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.338101	-1.49%	0.3753	+9.35%	0.0995	✗	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.406512	-3.86%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1753	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.312472	-2.14%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.3035	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.365012	-3.54%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1377	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.289708	-1.29%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2679	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.280305	-1.51%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0501	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.262867	-2.12%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0758	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.23488	-1.02%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1456	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.230812	-0.56%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0175	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227103	-0.50%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0367	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231357	-0.49%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0196	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237476	-0.51%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0241	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.230825	-0.53%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0267	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.224882	-0.56%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0445	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.231091	-0.63%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0036	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.24367	-0.60%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0451	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260344	-0.67%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0543	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.264193	-0.81%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0220	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258286	-0.75%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0288	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.256622	-0.75%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0168	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.243704	-0.77%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0487	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243219	-0.83%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0104	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.241345	-0.76%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0145	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.250422	-0.82%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0210	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.243656	-0.79%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0353	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.261344	-0.99%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0648	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.25275	-1.11%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0458	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.249516	-1.38%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0240	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.252508	-1.84%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0170	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.244283	-1.44%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0551	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.233875	-2.10%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0087	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.222223	-1.54%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0731	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.229301	-2.67%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0193	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.250959	-4.61%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1236	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155686	-0.04%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5219	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159163	-0.12%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0295	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164248	-0.30%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0046	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.170691	-0.96%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0541	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166874	+0.07%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0387	✓	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153749	+0.29%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0804	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148949	+0.34%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0195	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.15873	+0.24%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0437	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.166105	+0.09%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0455	✗	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160454	+0.13%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0427	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.16582	+0.07%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0168	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.170477	+0.02%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0355	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.172147	-0.09%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0121	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.195658	-0.25%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1067	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.183578	-0.34%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0133	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189455	-0.39%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0269	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.192857	-0.41%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0010	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190304	-0.39%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0059	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.198869	-0.42%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0330	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201249	-0.37%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0126	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.207817	-0.33%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0015	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.210025	-0.34%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0226	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.208451	-0.36%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0047	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.20135	-0.22%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0440	✗	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.206384	-0.32%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0386	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.202827	-0.33%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0118	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.204031	-0.42%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0139	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.189991	-0.53%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0042	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.179079	-0.46%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0114	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.169744	-0.53%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0144	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173198	-0.55%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0182	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.173125	-0.53%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0227	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177399	-0.53%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0159	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177676	-0.55%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0030	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179321	-0.52%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0043	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.183857	-0.54%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0201	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.190015	-0.59%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0254	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.201506	-0.74%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0459	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.205731	-0.85%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0033	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.204539	-0.97%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0154	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.207306	-1.40%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0040	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188359	-0.97%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0992	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.180147	-0.83%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0601	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.166712	-0.62%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0765	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.169991	-1.00%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0233	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.180768	-0.95%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0509	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.169372	-1.27%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0621	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.159868	-0.55%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0716	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151459	-0.36%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0940	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149558	-0.36%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0013	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.152764	-0.35%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0185	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.153959	-0.38%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0071	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.161856	-0.33%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0169	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.163031	-0.41%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0227	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153792	-0.36%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0586	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153228	-0.27%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0247	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157759	-0.22%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0081	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159633	-0.20%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0021	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155499	-0.26%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0054	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153471	-0.28%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0063	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154327	-0.27%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0007	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157539	-0.29%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0343	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159077	-0.30%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0091	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163727	-0.26%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0086	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161421	-0.23%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0217	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.156886	-0.33%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0210	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162362	-0.27%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0027	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.166866	-0.29%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0240	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.169091	-0.30%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0036	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167528	-0.31%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0060	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166354	-0.33%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0082	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.17055	-0.32%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0004	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178714	-0.35%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0306	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179583	-0.40%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0093	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183074	-0.48%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0250	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176404	-0.48%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0309	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170148	-0.47%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0208	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.173888	-0.49%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0492	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.160838	-0.38%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0539	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165434	-0.40%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0089	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166265	-0.41%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0151	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.16815	-0.41%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0023	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172314	-0.45%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0189	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170179	-0.39%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0109	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.173845	-0.43%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0087	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.180937	-0.50%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0028	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186482	-0.57%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0000	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.19002	-0.57%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0272	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.196956	-0.70%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0109	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189129	-0.64%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0334	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.191653	-1.26%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0186	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.200791	-1.43%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0038	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.197382	-1.21%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0541	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.194933	-1.10%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0373	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.191742	-0.86%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0167	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.18912	-0.67%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0025	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.189202	-0.94%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0076	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.191715	-1.15%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0033	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.174302	-0.63%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0729	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.174883	-0.49%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0068	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.182362	-0.67%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0149	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.182056	-0.79%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0122	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.176588	-0.35%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.176361	-0.30%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0077	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.190659	-0.60%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0305	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.20845	-0.64%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0796	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.204351	-0.94%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0664	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220113	-0.81%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0027	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.220714	-0.71%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0366	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.217614	-0.56%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0240	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.216734	-0.69%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0042	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.213574	-0.66%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0236	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.220531	-0.84%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0145	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.226208	-0.52%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0031	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.231903	-0.60%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0010	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.22975	-0.71%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0118	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.240454	-0.80%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0426	✓	1.00