AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

122

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

68.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1668

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0348

actual +0.0054

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.300415	-6.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.3191	-7.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.390448	-7.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.301701	-5.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.356144	-5.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.282313	-3.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.27179	-4.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.256209	-4.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.225678	-4.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.222481	-4.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.216645	-5.08%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.221084	-4.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.226708	-5.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.221616	-4.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.2166	-4.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.222963	-4.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.235288	-4.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.24872	-5.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.252738	-5.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.245288	-5.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.242088	-6.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.23247	-5.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.2312	-5.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.229047	-5.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.233819	-7.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.226443	-7.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.241897	-8.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.233188	-8.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.231638	-8.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.236653	-8.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.227366	-8.26%	0.3215	+29.72%	0.3801	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.220137	-7.85%	0.3432	+43.66%	0.4276	✗	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.208554	-7.60%	0.42285	+87.35%	0.7012	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.2154	-8.57%	0.3193	+35.53%	0.3829	✗	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.239405	-9.01%	0.3784	+43.82%	0.3908	✗	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.151125	-2.97%	0.2935	+88.44%	0.5935	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.154435	-3.08%	0.2846	+78.60%	0.5240	✗	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.159891	-2.95%	0.26855	+63.00%	0.4746	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.167235	-2.97%	0.2373	+37.68%	0.2669	✗	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.163304	-2.07%	0.2321	+39.19%	0.2915	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.151738	-1.02%	0.22825	+48.89%	0.3223	✗	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148126	-0.22%	0.2325	+56.62%	0.3662	✗	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.158257	-0.06%	0.2387	+50.74%	0.3563	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.166173	+0.13%	0.23205	+39.83%	0.2897	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.162602	+1.47%	0.22615	+41.12%	0.2729	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.169399	+2.23%	0.23255	+40.34%	0.2472	✓	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.174668	+2.47%	0.24515	+43.83%	0.2594	✓	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.176997	+2.73%	0.2621	+52.12%	0.3015	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.201014	+2.48%	0.26635	+35.79%	0.2380	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.188127	+2.13%	0.26025	+41.29%	0.2300	✓	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.194286	+2.15%	0.25855	+35.94%	0.1872	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.199237	+2.89%	0.2456	+26.83%	0.1476	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.196306	+2.75%	0.24525	+28.37%	0.1483	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.206541	+3.43%	0.2432	+21.78%	0.1006	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.208248	+3.09%	0.2525	+25.00%	0.1133	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.21903	+5.05%	0.2456	+17.79%	0.0656	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.219553	+4.18%	0.26395	+25.24%	0.1233	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.217798	+4.11%	0.2556	+22.18%	0.0892	✓	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.212187	+5.15%	0.253	+25.37%	0.1103	✓	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.215715	+4.19%	0.25725	+24.25%	0.0716	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.211498	+3.93%	0.24785	+21.79%	0.0409	✓	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.215219	+5.04%	0.2389	+16.59%	0.0685	✓	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.195205	+2.20%	0.2257	+18.17%	0.0368	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.176279	-2.01%	0.2356	+30.96%	0.1331	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.164439	-3.64%	0.2631	+54.18%	0.2955	✗	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.167764	-3.67%	0.15575	-10.57%	0.2545	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.16962	-2.55%	0.15935	-8.45%	0.2675	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.173715	-2.60%	0.16475	-7.63%	0.2918	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.174249	-2.46%	0.17235	-3.53%	0.2323	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.175499	-2.64%	0.16675	-7.49%	0.2730	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.179169	-3.07%	0.1533	-17.07%	0.3827	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.183954	-3.76%	0.14845	-22.34%	0.4291	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.193558	-4.65%	0.15835	-22.00%	0.4334	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.196291	-5.40%	0.16595	-20.02%	0.3858	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.19424	-5.96%	0.16025	-22.42%	0.4185	✓	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.195502	-7.01%	0.1657	-21.19%	0.4101	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.178671	-6.06%	0.17045	-10.38%	0.2872	✓	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.170528	-6.12%	0.1723	-5.15%	0.2228	✓	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.15949	-4.92%	0.19615	+16.93%	0.0507	✓	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.163206	-4.95%	0.1842	+7.28%	0.0951	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.172566	-5.44%	0.1902	+4.22%	0.1206	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.164259	-4.25%	0.19365	+12.88%	0.0765	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.156541	-2.62%	0.19105	+18.85%	0.0273	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.149901	-1.38%	0.1997	+31.38%	0.0672	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.148078	-1.35%	0.202	+34.58%	0.0821	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.151271	-1.32%	0.2085	+36.01%	0.0553	✗	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.1524	-1.39%	0.21075	+36.36%	0.0736	✗	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.161677	-0.45%	0.2092	+28.82%	0.0468	✗	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.161912	-1.09%	0.2018	+23.27%	0.0194	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153038	-0.85%	0.20705	+34.14%	0.0803	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.15321	-0.29%	0.2035	+32.44%	0.0871	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.15828	+0.11%	0.2049	+29.60%	0.0613	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159488	-0.29%	0.191	+19.41%	0.0723	✗	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.154994	-0.58%	0.1799	+15.39%	0.0790	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.152431	-0.95%	0.17065	+10.88%	0.1129	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.152577	-1.40%	0.17415	+12.54%	0.1379	✗	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.154838	-2.00%	0.17405	+10.16%	0.1365	✗	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.155583	-2.49%	0.17835	+11.78%	0.1505	✗	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.158602	-3.38%	0.17865	+8.83%	0.1510	✗	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.155596	-3.83%	0.18025	+11.40%	0.1756	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.151474	-3.76%	0.18485	+17.44%	0.1770	✗	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.15498	-4.80%	0.19115	+17.41%	0.2137	✗	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.158779	-5.12%	0.203	+21.30%	0.2431	✗	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.16153	-4.76%	0.2075	+22.35%	0.2369	✗	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.160251	-4.64%	0.20655	+22.91%	0.2208	✗	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.159134	-4.65%	0.21025	+25.97%	0.2274	✗	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.164257	-4.00%	0.1902	+11.16%	0.1285	✗	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.172356	-3.90%	0.18165	+1.28%	0.0411	✗	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.173326	-3.87%	0.16775	-6.96%	0.0416	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.176719	-3.93%	0.1717	-6.66%	0.0363	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.170116	-4.03%	0.1825	+2.96%	0.0513	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.16397	-4.08%	0.17155	+0.35%	0.0205	✓	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.166541	-4.70%	0.16075	-8.01%	0.0953	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.153604	-4.86%	0.152	-5.85%	0.1311	✓	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.159385	-4.04%	0.1501	-9.63%	0.1327	✓	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.159905	-4.22%	0.1533	-8.18%	0.1290	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.161978	-4.07%	0.15455	-8.47%	0.1214	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.165978	-4.11%	0.1624	-6.18%	0.1268	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.163719	-4.17%	0.1637	-4.18%	0.0909	✓	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.167426	-4.11%	0.15435	-11.60%	0.1423	✓	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.17359	-4.54%	0.15365	-15.51%	0.1681	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.178017	-5.08%	0.1581	-15.70%	0.1587	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.181637	-4.95%	0.15995	-16.30%	0.1906	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.187289	-5.58%	0.1559	-21.40%	0.2025	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.179881	-5.50%	0.1539	-19.15%	0.1788	✓	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.183681	-5.37%	0.15475	-20.27%	0.2088	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.191156	-6.16%	0.158	-22.43%	0.1800	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.187084	-6.36%	0.15955	-20.15%	0.1233	✓	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.184694	-6.29%	0.16415	-16.72%	0.0878	✓	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.181118	-6.35%	0.1618	-16.34%	0.0990	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.178183	-6.42%	0.1574	-17.33%	0.0807	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.178843	-6.36%	0.1628	-14.76%	0.0972	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.181199	-6.57%	0.16735	-13.71%	0.0828	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.164958	-5.95%	0.1696	-3.31%	0.0150	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.164617	-6.33%	0.16805	-4.38%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.170705	-7.02%	0.1669	-9.10%	0.0094	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.169972	-7.37%	0.1711	-6.76%	0.0063	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.164651	-7.08%	0.17935	+1.21%	0.0350	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.163599	-7.52%	0.1803	+1.92%	0.0562	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.177201	-7.61%	0.18395	-4.09%	0.0487	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.193949	-7.56%	0.17725	-15.51%	0.0660	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.19368	-6.12%	0.17095	-17.14%	0.0440	✓	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.203712	-8.20%	0.17475	-21.25%	0.0200	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.201911	-9.17%	0.16145	-27.37%	0.0052	✓	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.199437	-8.87%	0.1661	-24.10%	0.0210	✓	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.199595	-8.55%	0.16695	-23.51%	0.0313	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.196449	-8.63%	0.16885	-21.47%	0.0528	✓	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.202416	-8.99%	0.1731	-22.17%	0.0575	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.206146	-9.35%	0.17085	-24.87%	0.0513	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.216082	-7.38%	0.1746	-25.16%	0.0233	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.215252	-6.98%	0.18185	-21.41%	0.0374	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.226004	-6.76%	0.18755	-22.63%	0.0054	✓	1.00