AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

151

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

57.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0359

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0033

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.31973	-0.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.340962	-0.65%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0577	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.417488	-1.27%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.2019	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.317399	-0.60%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2879	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.3725	-1.56%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1580	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.292152	-0.46%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2595	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.282964	-0.57%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0407	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.266588	-0.73%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0617	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.236087	-0.51%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1405	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.231196	-0.39%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0158	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227076	-0.51%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0369	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231449	-0.45%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0200	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237662	-0.43%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0249	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.231348	-0.30%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0244	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.22546	-0.31%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0419	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.231527	-0.44%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0054	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.243778	-0.56%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0455	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260222	-0.72%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0538	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.263994	-0.88%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0213	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258121	-0.82%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0295	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.256784	-0.68%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0162	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.244383	-0.50%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0459	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.244147	-0.45%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0066	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.242208	-0.41%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0110	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.251322	-0.47%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0246	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.244658	-0.38%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0312	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.262828	-0.42%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0704	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.254704	-0.35%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0381	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.252157	-0.33%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0135	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.255825	-0.55%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0039	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.245984	-0.75%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0481	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.23705	-0.77%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0048	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.223993	-0.76%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0651	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.231552	-1.72%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0290	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.250784	-4.68%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1229	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155769	+0.01%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5214	✓	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159413	+0.04%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0310	✗	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164822	+0.04%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0011	✓	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.172096	-0.15%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0623	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166923	+0.10%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0384	✓	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153919	+0.40%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0793	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.149348	+0.60%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0169	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.159288	+0.59%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0472	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.166871	+0.55%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0501	✗	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.161601	+0.84%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0356	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.167153	+0.88%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0248	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.171752	+0.76%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0429	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.173499	+0.70%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0199	✗	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.196835	+0.35%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1127	✗	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.184813	+0.33%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0066	✓	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.190577	+0.20%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0328	✗	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.194044	+0.20%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0051	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.191377	+0.17%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0003	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.200075	+0.19%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0391	✗	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.202322	+0.16%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0180	✗	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.209192	+0.33%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0051	✗	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.211293	+0.26%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0287	✗	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.209679	+0.23%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0011	✓	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.202349	+0.27%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0390	✓	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.207314	+0.13%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0431	✗	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.203653	+0.08%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0077	✓	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.205169	+0.13%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0083	✓	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.190786	-0.11%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0000	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.178862	-0.58%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0127	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.169425	-0.72%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0126	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173098	-0.60%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0177	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.173419	-0.36%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0244	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177812	-0.30%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0182	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.178218	-0.24%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0000	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179781	-0.26%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0017	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.184301	-0.30%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0225	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.190481	-0.35%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0278	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.202123	-0.43%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0490	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.206305	-0.58%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0005	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.205104	-0.70%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0127	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.208166	-0.99%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0081	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188868	-0.70%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0965	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.1803	-0.74%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0592	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.166943	-0.48%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0751	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170956	-0.43%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0290	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.18147	-0.56%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0548	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.170768	-0.46%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0539	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.160336	-0.26%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0687	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151625	-0.25%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0929	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149778	-0.21%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0001	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.152909	-0.25%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0194	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.15413	-0.27%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0082	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.16154	-0.53%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0149	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.162839	-0.53%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0215	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153418	-0.60%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0611	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.152626	-0.67%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0286	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157679	-0.27%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0076	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159672	-0.17%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0024	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155562	-0.22%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0050	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153619	-0.18%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0053	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154527	-0.14%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0020	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157736	-0.17%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0356	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159271	-0.18%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0103	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163772	-0.23%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0089	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.16147	-0.20%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0214	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.157112	-0.18%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0224	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162443	-0.22%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0032	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.166991	-0.21%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0248	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.169308	-0.17%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0049	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167781	-0.16%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0075	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166637	-0.16%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0099	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170902	-0.12%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0025	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.179096	-0.14%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0327	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.18001	-0.16%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0117	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183559	-0.21%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0276	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176843	-0.23%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0284	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170548	-0.24%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0185	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.174131	-0.35%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0506	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.160996	-0.28%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0529	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165773	-0.20%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0069	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166618	-0.20%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0172	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168575	-0.16%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0002	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172824	-0.16%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0219	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170643	-0.12%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0082	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.174426	-0.10%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0054	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.181639	-0.12%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0066	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.187269	-0.15%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0042	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.190784	-0.17%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0312	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.197871	-0.24%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0155	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189985	-0.19%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0289	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.19358	-0.27%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0286	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.202901	-0.39%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0142	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.199072	-0.36%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0456	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.196385	-0.36%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0299	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.192682	-0.37%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0118	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189619	-0.41%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0051	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.190022	-0.51%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0119	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.192693	-0.65%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0084	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.174499	-0.51%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0718	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.17477	-0.56%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0075	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.182295	-0.71%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0145	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.181976	-0.83%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0127	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.175695	-0.85%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0040	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.175514	-0.78%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0125	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.190498	-0.68%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0296	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.208121	-0.80%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0780	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.205479	-0.40%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0609	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220977	-0.42%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0012	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.221258	-0.47%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0341	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.21801	-0.38%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0221	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.21754	-0.33%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0005	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.214423	-0.27%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0197	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.221812	-0.26%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0203	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.22693	-0.21%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0000	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.232952	-0.15%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0055	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.231102	-0.13%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0059	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.241946	-0.19%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0488	✓	1.00