DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s1

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 504

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

150

of 168 predictions shown

direction hit

68.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2659

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0465

actual -0.1652

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	1.3825	1.3062	-5.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-21	oos	1.287	0.936093	-27.27%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.7752	-3.39%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	2.8637	-6.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.0925	-8.17%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.2378	-9.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	10.2554	-11.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	1.3195	-42.87%	1.3825	-40.14%	0.0215	✓	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	1.5155	-49.20%	1.287	-56.86%	0.1931	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	1.9962	-51.07%	1.8375	-54.96%	0.0809	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	2.722	-50.57%	3.069	-44.27%	0.1188	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	5.7206	-37.43%	3.3675	-63.17%	0.5097	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	16.036	-7.04%	3.591	-79.18%	1.4778	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	12.4428	-25.56%	11.643	-30.34%	0.0537	✓	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	9.1927	-46.44%	2.3095	-86.54%	1.3866	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	13.2919	-45.77%	2.983	-87.83%	1.4735	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	33.9533	-22.03%	4.08	-90.63%	2.0900	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	78.1432	-8.56%	5.507	-93.56%	2.6047	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000367936	-1.88%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000372085	-2.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249371	-0.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268274	-0.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000305854	-0.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.00026934	-0.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000279665	-0.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000307415	-0.90%	0.000375	+20.89%	0.1514	✗	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000299309	-0.73%	0.0003798	+25.97%	0.1736	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000277686	-0.40%	0.0002495	-10.51%	0.1673	✓	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000300519	-0.79%	0.000269	-11.19%	0.1688	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000302225	-0.71%	0.0003089	+1.48%	0.0479	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000328056	-1.19%	0.0002702	-18.61%	0.1802	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000305225	-0.74%	0.000281	-8.62%	0.0537	✓	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000323217	-1.10%	0.0003102	-5.08%	0.0483	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000297836	-0.52%	0.0003015	+0.70%	0.0088	✓	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000302754	-0.57%	0.0002788	-8.44%	0.0317	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000318279	-0.85%	0.0003029	-5.64%	0.0139	✗	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000312404	-0.67%	0.0003044	-3.21%	0.0077	✓	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000399309	-2.75%	0.000332	-19.14%	0.1573	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000360793	-1.85%	0.0003075	-16.35%	0.1482	✓	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000321685	-0.62%	0.0003268	+0.96%	0.0058	✓	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000325419	-0.76%	0.0002994	-8.69%	0.0763	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000292624	+0.18%	0.0003045	+4.25%	0.0562	✓	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000232082	+2.37%	0.000321	+41.60%	0.3401	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000244328	+2.36%	0.0003145	+31.76%	0.2715	✓	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000215863	+4.48%	0.0004106	+98.74%	0.6364	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000222211	+4.57%	0.0003676	+72.99%	0.5249	✓	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000230444	+8.44%	0.0003237	+52.33%	0.2844	✓	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.00023249	+4.87%	0.0003279	+47.90%	0.4802	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.00027229	+2.79%	0.0002921	+10.27%	0.2167	✓	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000275327	+2.47%	0.0002267	-15.63%	0.0085	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000264009	+4.10%	0.0002387	-5.88%	0.0275	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000281023	+3.36%	0.0002066	-24.02%	0.0977	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000313069	+1.12%	0.0002125	-31.36%	0.0819	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000345602	+0.23%	0.0002125	-38.37%	0.0230	✓	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000407249	-1.51%	0.0002217	-46.38%	0.2884	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000351703	-0.17%	0.0002649	-24.81%	0.0236	✓	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000346115	+0.24%	0.0002687	-22.18%	0.0797	✗	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000347683	+0.63%	0.0002536	-26.60%	0.1339	✗	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000390398	-0.69%	0.0002719	-30.83%	0.1766	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000406552	-0.99%	0.0003096	-24.60%	0.1772	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000401305	-0.86%	0.0003448	-14.82%	0.0638	✓	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000360856	-0.01%	0.0004135	+14.57%	0.1395	✗	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000402932	-0.71%	0.0003523	-13.18%	0.1499	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000440975	-1.39%	0.0003453	-22.79%	0.1641	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000500951	-1.79%	0.0003455	-32.27%	0.2298	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000513994	-1.72%	0.0003931	-24.84%	0.1568	✓	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000532481	-1.74%	0.0004106	-24.23%	0.1490	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000517542	-1.59%	0.0004048	-23.03%	0.1357	✓	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000561342	-1.69%	0.0003609	-36.80%	0.3069	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000571613	-1.78%	0.0004058	-30.27%	0.2198	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000540721	-1.69%	0.0004472	-18.69%	0.2178	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000589517	-1.86%	0.0005101	-15.08%	0.2008	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000637325	-2.09%	0.000523	-19.65%	0.2928	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000547402	-1.33%	0.0005419	-2.33%	0.1197	✓	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000573204	-1.32%	0.0005259	-9.47%	0.1860	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000572193	-1.16%	0.000571	-1.36%	0.1252	✓	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.00064673	-1.28%	0.000582	-11.16%	0.1408	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000680175	-1.30%	0.00055	-20.19%	0.1542	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000658517	-1.32%	0.0006007	-9.98%	0.0782	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000621772	-1.05%	0.0006509	+3.58%	0.0507	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000621689	-0.94%	0.0005548	-11.60%	0.1261	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000585206	-0.56%	0.0005809	-1.29%	0.0572	✓	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000572208	-0.05%	0.0005789	+1.12%	0.0708	✓	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000618559	-0.31%	0.0006551	+5.58%	0.0605	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.00060104	+0.09%	0.0006891	+14.75%	0.0083	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000616088	+0.10%	0.0006673	+8.42%	0.0014	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000592837	+0.69%	0.0006284	+6.73%	0.0058	✓	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.00063135	+0.58%	0.0006276	-0.02%	0.0547	✗	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000619269	+1.14%	0.0005885	-3.89%	0.0799	✗	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000602436	+1.81%	0.0005725	-3.24%	0.0489	✗	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000627179	+1.93%	0.0006205	+0.85%	0.0347	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000690263	+1.26%	0.0006005	-11.91%	0.1064	✗	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000694024	+1.61%	0.0006155	-9.88%	0.1028	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000703253	+1.96%	0.0005888	-14.63%	0.1657	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000720666	+2.14%	0.0006277	-11.04%	0.1194	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.00064469	+4.76%	0.0006123	-0.50%	0.0903	✗	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.00065384	+4.70%	0.0005917	-5.25%	0.1314	✗	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000758707	+2.50%	0.0006153	-16.87%	0.2002	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000830191	+1.99%	0.0006817	-16.25%	0.2451	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000896023	+1.25%	0.000683	-22.82%	0.2819	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001046	+0.28%	0.0006897	-33.87%	0.3747	✗	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001031	+0.28%	0.0007056	-31.36%	0.3320	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001096	-0.14%	0.0006154	-43.95%	0.4231	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001218	-0.69%	0.0006245	-49.10%	0.5405	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001307	-1.12%	0.0007402	-44.01%	0.4640	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001331	-1.07%	0.000814	-39.48%	0.3974	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001304	-0.79%	0.000885	-32.65%	0.3385	✓	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.00142	-1.06%	0.001043	-27.32%	0.3302	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001464	-1.15%	0.001028	-30.59%	0.3742	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001482	-1.19%	0.001098	-26.80%	0.3100	✓	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001556	-1.43%	0.001227	-22.24%	0.2056	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001571	-1.48%	0.001322	-17.12%	0.2040	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001561	-1.42%	0.001345	-15.09%	0.2579	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001514	-1.41%	0.001314	-14.45%	0.1428	✓	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001532	-1.58%	0.001435	-7.84%	0.0227	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001509	-1.59%	0.001481	-3.39%	0.0243	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001568	-1.90%	0.0015	-6.13%	0.0651	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001585	-2.05%	0.001578	-2.47%	0.0845	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001592	-2.02%	0.001595	-1.85%	0.1110	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001492	-1.72%	0.001584	+4.35%	0.1183	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001455	-1.51%	0.001536	+3.99%	0.0478	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001558	-1.72%	0.001557	-1.77%	0.1848	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001734	-2.48%	0.001533	-13.78%	0.2977	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.00166	-2.33%	0.001598	-6.00%	0.1837	✓	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.001958	-3.97%	0.001618	-20.65%	0.1606	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002276	-5.84%	0.001625	-32.77%	0.1686	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001589	-2.53%	0.001518	-6.87%	0.0603	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001627	-2.90%	0.001477	-11.87%	0.1127	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001274	-1.30%	0.001585	+22.77%	0.5528	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001481	-2.00%	0.001778	+17.67%	0.4823	✗	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001349	-1.91%	0.0017	+23.64%	0.7513	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001508	-2.74%	0.002039	+31.46%	0.6942	✗	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001441	-2.58%	0.002417	+63.42%	0.9135	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001536	-3.25%	0.00163	+2.64%	0.6246	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001636	-3.62%	0.001676	-1.24%	0.4532	✗	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001512	-2.83%	0.001291	-17.03%	0.1112	✗	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001856	-4.51%	0.001511	-22.27%	0.1402	✗	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001602	-3.08%	0.001375	-16.82%	0.0914	✓	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001758	-4.20%	0.001551	-15.48%	0.0428	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001689	-3.58%	0.001479	-15.58%	0.1891	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.00159	-3.83%	0.001588	-3.93%	0.0261	✓	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002223	-7.53%	0.001697	-29.41%	0.0168	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001467	-3.52%	0.001556	+2.37%	0.3892	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001597	-4.08%	0.001944	+16.76%	0.4624	✗	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001626	-4.01%	0.001653	-2.42%	0.3158	✗	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.00169	-4.65%	0.001835	+3.56%	0.3522	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001587	-4.66%	0.001752	+5.23%	0.2054	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001745	-5.50%	0.001653	-10.50%	0.0138	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001883	-6.12%	0.002404	+19.84%	0.2798	✗	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001725	-5.10%	0.00152	-16.39%	0.1121	✓	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001685	-4.85%	0.001665	-5.99%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.001947	-5.47%	0.001694	-17.77%	0.1228	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001483	-3.69%	0.001772	+15.06%	0.1554	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001298	-4.96%	0.001665	+21.89%	0.2078	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.0018	-4.91%	0.001847	-2.43%	0.0056	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002182	-4.72%	0.002006	-12.40%	0.1367	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002163	-4.46%	0.001818	-19.70%	0.2145	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002582	-4.52%	0.001771	-34.50%	0.4190	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002725	-5.13%	0.00206	-28.27%	0.2972	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002527	-5.86%	0.00154	-42.62%	0.4657	✓	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004481	-6.50%	0.001366	-71.50%	1.1456	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004663	-6.99%	0.001893	-62.25%	0.8599	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006002	-7.40%	0.00229	-64.67%	0.9063	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.004868	-6.52%	0.002264	-56.52%	0.7328	✓	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001472	-4.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001239	-6.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001203	-8.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001622	-5.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.00