DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s1

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

164

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

59.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1241

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0051

actual -0.0319

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	1.9828	-0.29%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.8357	-0.10%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.0829	✗	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	3.0414	-0.90%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.5173	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.3359	-0.94%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0813	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.5692	-0.61%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0658	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	11.1981	-3.82%	3.591	-69.16%	1.1359	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	2.3066	-0.13%	11.643	+404.14%	1.6266	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.9803	-0.09%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.2618	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	4.0721	-0.19%	2.983	-26.89%	0.2926	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	5.4953	-0.21%	4.08	-25.91%	0.3143	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	9.1367	-0.07%	5.507	-39.77%	0.4829	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	17.1201	-0.76%	9.143	-47.00%	0.6365	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	16.6162	-0.59%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.0330	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	17.0731	-0.53%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.0316	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	24.3715	-0.56%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.3314	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	43.1621	-0.88%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.5391	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	83.601	-2.17%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6498	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000372811	-0.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000375683	-1.08%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0288	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249124	-0.15%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3653	✗	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268452	-0.20%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0667	✓	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000307781	-0.36%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1797	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.00026974	-0.17%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1531	✗	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000280523	-0.17%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0538	✓	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000309171	-0.33%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0720	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000300594	-0.30%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0386	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278562	-0.09%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0235	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000302305	-0.20%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0730	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000303664	-0.24%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0400	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330669	-0.40%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0781	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000306725	-0.25%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0796	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000325643	-0.35%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0713	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000298923	-0.16%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0817	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000303953	-0.18%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0003	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000320083	-0.29%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0295	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000313908	-0.19%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0213	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000406865	-0.91%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2428	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000365201	-0.65%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1037	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000323097	-0.19%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0955	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000326851	-0.32%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0002	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000291546	-0.19%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1394	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000227356	+0.29%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2671	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000239341	+0.27%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0520	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000207867	+0.61%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1258	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000213815	+0.62%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0183	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000214573	+0.98%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1312	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000223139	+0.65%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1917	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000265853	+0.36%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1264	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.0002694	+0.26%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0459	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000254919	+0.52%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0202	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000273008	+0.41%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0366	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000309627	+0.01%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0134	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000344314	-0.14%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.0981	✓	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000410518	-0.72%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0889	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000351069	-0.35%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1629	✗	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000344469	-0.24%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0077	✗	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000345087	-0.12%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0290	✓	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000391551	-0.39%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0825	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000408581	-0.49%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0319	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000402867	-0.48%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0188	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000360076	-0.23%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1154	✗	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000404564	-0.30%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1346	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000445148	-0.46%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0132	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000507224	-0.56%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1051	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000519993	-0.57%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0074	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000538433	-0.64%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0220	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000522876	-0.58%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0372	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000567289	-0.65%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0523	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000578063	-0.68%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0383	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000546943	-0.56%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0219	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000596986	-0.62%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0885	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000645284	-0.86%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0818	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000551665	-0.57%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1686	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000577417	-0.60%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0285	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000575776	-0.54%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0145	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.0006507	-0.67%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0639	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000683594	-0.80%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0394	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000661981	-0.80%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0113	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000623955	-0.71%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0476	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000623014	-0.73%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0055	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000585296	-0.54%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0430	✗	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000570181	-0.41%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0042	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000617016	-0.56%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0543	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000598351	-0.36%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0079	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000613	-0.41%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0036	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.00058741	-0.24%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0454	✗	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000626024	-0.27%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0708	✓	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000611457	-0.14%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0239	✗	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000591764	+0.01%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0424	✓	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000615709	+0.07%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0442	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000681085	-0.09%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0759	✓	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000682902	-0.01%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0001	✓	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000690193	+0.07%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0178	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000706409	+0.11%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0293	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000619093	+0.60%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0716	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000628437	+0.63%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0038	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000743063	+0.39%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1375	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000816929	+0.36%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1310	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000886984	+0.22%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0464	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001043	-0.03%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1190	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001028	-0.01%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0151	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001096	-0.14%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0164	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001224	-0.26%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1192	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001317	-0.35%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0573	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001341	-0.31%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0577	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001311	-0.24%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0203	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001431	-0.31%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1101	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001476	-0.33%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0265	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001495	-0.37%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0533	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001571	-0.44%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0160	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001588	-0.44%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0545	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001578	-0.40%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1136	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.00153	-0.37%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1491	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001551	-0.40%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0030	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001527	-0.39%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0215	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001591	-0.46%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0257	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.00161	-0.48%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0307	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001618	-0.46%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0892	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001513	-0.36%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.0993	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001473	-0.28%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0121	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.00158	-0.33%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1325	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001768	-0.57%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0972	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001692	-0.48%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0959	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.00202	-0.92%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0201	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002358	-2.44%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.1026	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001618	-0.72%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3793	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001658	-1.06%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0403	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001286	-0.38%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3045	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001502	-0.62%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1824	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001368	-0.52%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2941	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001539	-0.78%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0377	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001469	-0.66%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1056	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001576	-0.79%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0513	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001681	-0.94%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1064	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001546	-0.63%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0011	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001919	-1.27%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1720	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001641	-0.71%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0974	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001816	-1.04%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0014	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001736	-0.93%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0315	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001641	-0.75%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3093	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002334	-2.90%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1742	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001508	-0.82%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4468	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001649	-0.95%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1020	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001678	-0.95%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0589	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001752	-1.16%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0405	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001649	-0.97%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0978	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001825	-1.19%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0814	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001974	-1.59%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0626	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001797	-1.17%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0847	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001754	-0.98%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0305	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002026	-1.63%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1431	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001529	-0.70%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2747	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001361	-0.37%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1308	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001878	-0.77%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2984	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002267	-0.99%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1977	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002246	-0.78%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0056	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002677	-0.99%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1746	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002839	-1.14%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0327	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002661	-0.85%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1000	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004718	-1.56%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5439	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004936	-1.56%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0100	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.00632	-2.49%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2332	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.00511	-1.85%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1995	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001524	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001317	-0.52%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1393	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001315	-0.30%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0327	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001716	-0.37%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2603	✓	1.00