UMX

UMX · · gru_s0

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +30d

assessed

37

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

81.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2175

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0477

actual -0.2589

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.045162	-3.09%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041752	-2.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053013	-3.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.053291	-3.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.053466	-4.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.056567	-4.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.056926	-3.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.057208	-3.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058162	-2.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.058525	-3.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059472	-1.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059571	-1.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059522	-2.34%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.057663	-4.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.058797	-4.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.05974	-3.20%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.057847	-6.23%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.058546	-5.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.057525	-6.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.057981	-6.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.058285	-5.20%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.057608	-6.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.05759	-5.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.057169	-5.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.058051	-4.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.058325	-4.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.058176	-4.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.058756	-3.95%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.058851	-3.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059499	-2.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060298	-1.43%	0.0466	-23.82%	0.2317	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.057541	-6.34%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.3052	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.056946	-5.81%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0362	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.057685	-6.00%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0482	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.054662	-10.61%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0113	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.055487	-10.52%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0279	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.054468	-10.50%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0387	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.056054	-7.38%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0290	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.0557	-8.35%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0150	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.057897	-7.50%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0062	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.060312	-7.28%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0542	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.060256	-7.38%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0444	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.061652	-4.95%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0519	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.063589	-4.37%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0808	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.065801	-3.33%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.1044	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.068424	-2.15%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.1586	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.070398	-2.05%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.2035	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.07078	-1.79%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.2194	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.073288	+0.22%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.2190	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.072223	-2.72%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.2465	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.072771	-2.16%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.2605	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.0743	-0.87%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.2525	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.074636	-1.52%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.2724	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074577	-0.74%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.2719	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.075648	-0.89%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.3012	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.078214	+1.63%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2979	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.082746	+0.70%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.3684	✗	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.083944	+0.47%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3884	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.089604	+1.01%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.4478	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.086781	+0.07%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.4603	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086357	-0.41%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.4616	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.084196	+0.88%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.3507	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.079043	-4.49%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3747	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.07755	-8.61%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3885	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.073422	-13.57%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.3487	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.072879	-13.91%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3278	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.071349	-15.52%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.3437	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.