TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · gru_s0
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +7d
assessed
20
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
90.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4119
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0374
actual -0.4158
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001625 | -9.24% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001532 | -8.66% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001481 | -7.27% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001155 | -4.81% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001257 | -4.14% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001278 | -4.29% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001381 | -4.55% | – | pending | – | – | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001442 | -4.17% | 0.001791 | +19.00% | 0.2028 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001472 | -5.80% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.1321 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001675 | -3.82% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0491 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002143 | -4.07% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5490 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002204 | -3.74% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5008 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.00261 | -4.12% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6576 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002165 | -3.63% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4084 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.00246 | -4.44% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.4705 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002087 | -7.76% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.2600 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002231 | -7.58% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.1995 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.002983 | -3.32% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2560 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003035 | -3.83% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2601 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003882 | -2.35% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3314 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003666 | -2.56% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4515 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003737 | -2.84% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3694 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003841 | -2.60% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5521 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.00494 | -1.62% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7431 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005484 | -1.35% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5988 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006157 | -1.51% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6721 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007015 | -2.06% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5730 | ✓ | 1.00 |