DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s0

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 504

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

165

of 168 predictions shown

direction hit

61.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1226

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0126

actual -0.0341

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	1.3825	1.2973	-6.17%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-21	oos	1.287	1.2047	-6.39%	1.3825	+7.42%	0.1354	✗	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.7358	-5.54%	1.287	-29.96%	0.3122	✓	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	2.9178	-4.93%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.4758	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.1705	-5.85%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0305	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.3642	-6.32%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0067	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	10.7878	-7.35%	3.591	-69.16%	1.0985	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	2.1429	-7.21%	11.643	+404.14%	1.7002	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.7679	-7.21%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.1879	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.7932	-7.03%	2.983	-26.89%	0.2216	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	5.1169	-7.08%	4.08	-25.91%	0.2429	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	8.578	-6.18%	5.507	-39.77%	0.4198	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	16.2866	-5.59%	9.143	-47.00%	0.5866	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	15.6864	-6.15%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.0906	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	16.0987	-6.21%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.0272	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	23.2051	-5.32%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.2823	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	41.8819	-3.82%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.5090	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	82.5327	-3.42%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6369	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000373028	-0.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000377251	-0.67%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0246	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249457	-0.02%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3640	✗	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268808	-0.07%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0680	✓	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000308014	-0.29%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1804	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000270002	-0.07%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1521	✗	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000280692	-0.11%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0544	✓	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.00030946	-0.24%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0729	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000300895	-0.20%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0376	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278558	-0.09%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0236	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.00030229	-0.20%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0729	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000303834	-0.19%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0395	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330864	-0.34%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0787	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000306862	-0.21%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0791	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000325698	-0.34%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0714	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000298887	-0.17%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0818	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000303914	-0.19%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0004	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000320049	-0.30%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0294	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000313724	-0.25%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0219	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000406732	-0.94%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2425	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000364835	-0.75%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1047	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000322224	-0.46%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0982	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000325967	-0.59%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0025	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.0002911	-0.34%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1410	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000227297	+0.26%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2673	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000239235	+0.22%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0516	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000208002	+0.68%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1252	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000214026	+0.72%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0193	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000215003	+1.18%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1332	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000223549	+0.83%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1899	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000265995	+0.41%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1269	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000269703	+0.37%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0448	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000255528	+0.76%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0178	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000273606	+0.63%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0388	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000309799	+0.06%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0140	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000344158	-0.19%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.0976	✓	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000410022	-0.84%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0877	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000350653	-0.47%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1641	✗	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000344158	-0.33%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0086	✗	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.00034496	-0.16%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0286	✓	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000390677	-0.62%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0803	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000407556	-0.74%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0293	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000401692	-0.77%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0217	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000358727	-0.60%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1192	✗	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000403112	-0.66%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1310	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000444079	-0.70%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0108	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000506489	-0.71%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1037	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000519552	-0.66%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0083	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000538039	-0.71%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0213	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000522477	-0.65%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0380	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000567238	-0.66%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0522	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000577678	-0.74%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0377	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.00054547	-0.82%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0192	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.00059537	-0.89%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0858	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000643878	-1.08%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0796	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000550538	-0.77%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1706	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000576584	-0.74%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0270	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000575005	-0.67%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0159	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000650704	-0.67%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0639	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000684041	-0.73%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0401	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.00066221	-0.76%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0117	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000624031	-0.70%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0475	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000623273	-0.69%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0059	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000585398	-0.53%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0429	✗	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000570216	-0.40%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0041	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000617329	-0.51%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0548	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000598253	-0.37%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0081	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000612966	-0.41%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0035	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000587072	-0.29%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0460	✗	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000625642	-0.33%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0702	✓	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000610803	-0.24%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0250	✗	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000590582	-0.19%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0444	✗	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000614167	-0.18%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0417	✓	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000679282	-0.35%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0733	✓	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000680507	-0.37%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0036	✓	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000687177	-0.37%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0134	✓	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000702736	-0.41%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0241	✓	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000614488	-0.15%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0790	✗	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000622604	-0.30%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0055	✗	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000738155	-0.28%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1309	✓	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000812722	-0.16%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1258	✓	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000883521	-0.17%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0425	✓	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001041	-0.17%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1177	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001026	-0.16%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0166	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001096	-0.18%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0161	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001224	-0.25%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1193	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001318	-0.30%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0577	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001341	-0.30%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0578	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001311	-0.24%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0203	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001431	-0.28%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1103	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001477	-0.28%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0270	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001496	-0.27%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0523	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001573	-0.32%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0172	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.00159	-0.34%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0556	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001578	-0.35%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1140	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001531	-0.30%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1484	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001552	-0.32%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0022	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001528	-0.30%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0206	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001592	-0.36%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0267	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001612	-0.39%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0316	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001618	-0.41%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0896	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001513	-0.33%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.0990	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001473	-0.29%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0121	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001579	-0.37%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1320	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001767	-0.63%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0966	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.00169	-0.56%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0968	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.002017	-1.06%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0186	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.00236	-2.36%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.1034	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001618	-0.76%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3797	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001659	-1.02%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0399	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001284	-0.56%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3064	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001501	-0.68%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1817	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001364	-0.77%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2966	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001536	-0.95%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0361	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001465	-0.97%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1087	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.00157	-1.11%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0546	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001677	-1.17%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1041	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001541	-0.95%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0044	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001916	-1.43%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1703	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001637	-0.99%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.1003	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.00181	-1.34%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0044	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.00173	-1.25%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0282	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.00163	-1.40%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3158	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002328	-3.15%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1716	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001496	-1.58%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4545	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001639	-1.55%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.0959	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001668	-1.54%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0529	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001741	-1.73%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0463	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001636	-1.77%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.1059	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001813	-1.87%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0745	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001963	-2.14%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0569	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001782	-1.96%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0927	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001736	-1.95%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0403	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002013	-2.28%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1365	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001507	-2.12%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2891	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001334	-2.31%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1504	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001862	-1.65%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2895	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002256	-1.48%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1927	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002235	-1.28%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0107	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002671	-1.21%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1724	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002835	-1.30%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0310	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002653	-1.17%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1033	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004715	-1.64%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5431	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004925	-1.77%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0079	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006335	-2.25%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2357	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005118	-1.71%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1981	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001498	-2.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001281	-3.27%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1673	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001273	-3.45%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0005	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001682	-2.33%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2404	✓	1.00