DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s0

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

164

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

63.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1195

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0237

actual -0.0319

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	1.7646	-11.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.5875	-13.60%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.2281	✗	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	2.7553	-10.22%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.4185	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	2.9667	-11.90%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0360	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.1225	-13.05%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0679	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	10.2059	-12.34%	3.591	-69.16%	1.0431	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	1.9145	-17.10%	11.643	+404.14%	1.8129	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.4741	-17.06%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.0757	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.4081	-16.47%	2.983	-26.89%	0.1146	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	4.5902	-16.65%	4.08	-25.91%	0.1343	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	7.8051	-14.63%	5.507	-39.77%	0.3254	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	15.4323	-10.54%	9.143	-47.00%	0.5327	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	14.546	-12.97%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.1661	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	14.7038	-14.34%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.1178	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	21.3446	-12.91%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.1988	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	39.4969	-9.30%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.4504	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	80.3799	-5.94%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6105	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000373219	-0.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000376103	-0.97%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0277	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249478	-0.01%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3639	✗	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268882	-0.04%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0683	✓	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000308037	-0.28%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1805	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000270052	-0.05%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1519	✗	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000280821	-0.06%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0549	✓	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000309471	-0.23%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0729	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000300808	-0.23%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0379	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278666	-0.05%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0232	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000302341	-0.18%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0731	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000303803	-0.20%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0396	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330609	-0.42%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0779	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000306727	-0.25%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0796	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000325344	-0.45%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0704	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000298729	-0.22%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0824	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000303717	-0.26%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0010	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000319626	-0.43%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0281	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000313541	-0.31%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0225	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000405442	-1.26%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2393	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.00036365	-1.07%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1079	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000321844	-0.57%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0993	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000325024	-0.88%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0054	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000289716	-0.82%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1457	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000226867	+0.07%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2692	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000238575	-0.05%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0488	✓	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000207756	+0.56%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1264	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000213698	+0.56%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0178	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000215064	+1.21%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1335	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000223098	+0.63%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1919	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000265258	+0.14%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1241	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.0002687	-0.00%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0486	✗	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000254804	+0.47%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0206	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000272867	+0.36%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0361	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000308944	-0.21%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0112	✓	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000343478	-0.38%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.0957	✓	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000408371	-1.24%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0836	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000349919	-0.68%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1661	✗	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000343716	-0.46%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0099	✗	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000344878	-0.18%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0284	✓	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000390346	-0.70%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0794	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.00040704	-0.87%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0281	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000401202	-0.89%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0230	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000358958	-0.54%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1185	✗	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000403172	-0.65%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1311	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000443464	-0.84%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0094	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000505438	-0.91%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1016	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000518293	-0.90%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0107	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.00053629	-1.04%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0181	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000520902	-0.95%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0410	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000565216	-1.01%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0486	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000575526	-1.11%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0339	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000543941	-1.10%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0164	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000593632	-1.18%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0829	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000640982	-1.52%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0751	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000548899	-1.06%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1736	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000574701	-1.07%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0238	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000573264	-0.97%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0189	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.00064845	-1.02%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0604	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000681079	-1.16%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0357	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000659055	-1.24%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0069	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000621208	-1.14%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0520	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000620167	-1.18%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0009	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000582956	-0.94%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0471	✗	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000568055	-0.78%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0079	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000614519	-0.96%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0502	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000596034	-0.74%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0118	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.00061055	-0.80%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0004	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000585439	-0.57%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0488	✗	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000623683	-0.64%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0670	✓	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000609421	-0.47%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0272	✗	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000590015	-0.28%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0454	✗	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.00061387	-0.23%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0412	✓	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000678305	-0.50%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0718	✓	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000679882	-0.46%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0045	✓	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000686932	-0.40%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0130	✓	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000702521	-0.44%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0238	✓	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000617262	+0.30%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0745	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000625886	+0.22%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0002	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000739312	-0.12%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1324	✓	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000812953	-0.13%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1261	✓	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000882224	-0.31%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0410	✓	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001039	-0.42%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1151	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001023	-0.46%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0195	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001092	-0.50%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0128	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.00122	-0.60%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1157	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001313	-0.66%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0541	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001337	-0.61%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0547	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001308	-0.46%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0225	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001429	-0.42%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1089	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001475	-0.39%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0259	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001495	-0.34%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0530	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001572	-0.36%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0167	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001589	-0.40%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0549	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001576	-0.48%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1128	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.00153	-0.39%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1494	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.00155	-0.42%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0032	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001527	-0.41%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0217	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.00159	-0.48%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0255	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001609	-0.55%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0299	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001615	-0.62%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0875	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001509	-0.58%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.1015	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001469	-0.52%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0097	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001576	-0.54%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1304	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001763	-0.82%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0947	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001687	-0.77%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0988	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.002013	-1.29%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0164	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002339	-3.24%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.0944	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001611	-1.16%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3837	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.00165	-1.58%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0456	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001277	-1.12%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3121	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001495	-1.05%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1780	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001358	-1.26%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.3015	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.00153	-1.35%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0319	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001458	-1.40%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1131	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001564	-1.54%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0589	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.00167	-1.58%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.0998	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001535	-1.38%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0087	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001908	-1.85%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1661	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001631	-1.34%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.1039	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001803	-1.74%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0085	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001723	-1.64%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0243	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001619	-2.08%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3228	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002295	-4.51%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1574	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001484	-2.36%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4625	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001626	-2.31%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.0881	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001655	-2.29%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0453	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001725	-2.63%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0555	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001617	-2.90%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.1175	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001791	-3.04%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0624	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001938	-3.41%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0439	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001761	-3.16%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.1051	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001714	-3.21%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0532	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.001985	-3.62%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1227	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001484	-3.66%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.3049	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001302	-4.71%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1753	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001831	-3.27%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2729	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002227	-2.77%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1796	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002204	-2.64%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0246	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002642	-2.28%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1615	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002802	-2.42%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0196	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002614	-2.60%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1179	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004691	-2.14%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5380	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.0049	-2.27%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0028	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006313	-2.59%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2322	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005117	-1.73%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1982	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.00148	-3.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001252	-5.43%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1899	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001236	-6.30%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0294	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001651	-4.14%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2217	✓	1.00