AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s0

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 459

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

123

of 153 predictions shown

direction hit

62.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1692

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0368

actual +0.0097

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.37325	0.350434	-6.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.38
2026-10-21	oos	0.3753	0.352382	-6.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.38
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.321991	-6.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.387759	-8.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.299938	-6.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.346724	-8.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.276925	-5.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.269034	-5.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.252755	-5.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.227736	-4.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.222076	-4.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.220212	-3.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.224024	-3.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.229946	-3.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.223418	-3.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.219503	-2.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.227791	-2.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.240872	-1.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.258224	-1.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.260621	-2.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.254518	-2.20%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.253604	-1.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.240754	-1.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.240626	-1.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.237892	-2.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.247242	-2.08%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.241257	-1.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.257813	-2.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.250755	-1.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.248466	-1.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.254372	-1.12%	0.37325	+45.09%	0.3998	✗	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.246295	-0.63%	0.3753	+51.42%	0.4432	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.232778	-2.56%	0.3432	+43.66%	0.3717	✗	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.220746	-2.19%	0.42285	+87.35%	0.6444	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.228434	-3.04%	0.3193	+35.53%	0.3241	✗	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.240814	-8.47%	0.3784	+43.82%	0.3849	✗	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.154419	-0.85%	0.2935	+88.44%	0.5719	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.157704	-1.03%	0.2846	+78.60%	0.5030	✗	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.165113	+0.22%	0.26855	+63.00%	0.4425	✓	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.171025	-0.77%	0.2373	+37.68%	0.2444	✗	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.16545	-0.78%	0.2321	+39.19%	0.2784	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153262	-0.02%	0.22825	+48.89%	0.3123	✗	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148365	-0.06%	0.2325	+56.62%	0.3645	✗	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.159148	+0.50%	0.2387	+50.74%	0.3507	✓	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.166565	+0.37%	0.23205	+39.83%	0.2873	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.16134	+0.68%	0.22615	+41.12%	0.2807	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.16765	+1.18%	0.23255	+40.34%	0.2575	✓	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.172496	+1.20%	0.24515	+43.83%	0.2719	✓	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.174617	+1.34%	0.2621	+52.12%	0.3150	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.19707	+0.47%	0.26635	+35.79%	0.2579	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.182247	-1.06%	0.26025	+41.29%	0.2618	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.187943	-1.19%	0.25855	+35.94%	0.2204	✗	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.192557	-0.56%	0.2456	+26.83%	0.1817	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.189811	-0.65%	0.24525	+28.37%	0.1819	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.198401	-0.65%	0.2432	+21.78%	0.1408	✗	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.200915	-0.54%	0.2525	+25.00%	0.1492	✗	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.210583	+1.00%	0.2456	+17.79%	0.1050	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.21275	+0.95%	0.26395	+25.24%	0.1548	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.211927	+1.30%	0.2556	+22.18%	0.1165	✓	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.206128	+2.14%	0.253	+25.37%	0.1393	✓	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.210224	+1.53%	0.25725	+24.25%	0.0974	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.20659	+1.52%	0.24785	+21.79%	0.0643	✓	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.210902	+2.93%	0.2389	+16.59%	0.0888	✓	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.190537	-0.24%	0.2257	+18.17%	0.0610	✗	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.174836	-2.82%	0.2356	+30.96%	0.1414	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.160972	-5.67%	0.2631	+54.18%	0.3168	✗	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.164059	-5.79%	0.15575	-10.57%	0.2322	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.162663	-6.54%	0.15935	-8.45%	0.2256	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.166882	-6.43%	0.16475	-7.63%	0.2517	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.166994	-6.52%	0.17235	-3.53%	0.1898	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.168619	-6.45%	0.16675	-7.49%	0.2330	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.172872	-6.48%	0.1533	-17.07%	0.3469	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.178924	-6.40%	0.14845	-22.34%	0.4014	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.1905	-6.16%	0.15835	-22.00%	0.4175	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.195918	-5.58%	0.16595	-20.02%	0.3839	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.195171	-5.51%	0.16025	-22.42%	0.4233	✓	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.198452	-5.61%	0.1657	-21.19%	0.4251	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.17915	-5.81%	0.17045	-10.38%	0.2898	✓	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.171631	-5.52%	0.1723	-5.15%	0.2292	✓	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.157623	-6.04%	0.19615	+16.93%	0.0389	✓	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.160806	-6.34%	0.1842	+7.28%	0.0803	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.171149	-6.22%	0.1902	+4.22%	0.1124	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.159516	-7.01%	0.19365	+12.88%	0.0472	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.149942	-6.72%	0.19105	+18.85%	0.0158	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.144366	-5.02%	0.1997	+31.38%	0.1048	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.141944	-5.43%	0.202	+34.58%	0.1244	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.146044	-4.73%	0.2085	+36.01%	0.0904	✗	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.147267	-4.71%	0.21075	+36.36%	0.1079	✗	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.156748	-3.48%	0.2092	+28.82%	0.0777	✗	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.157804	-3.60%	0.2018	+23.27%	0.0063	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.149413	-3.20%	0.20705	+34.14%	0.1043	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.149597	-2.64%	0.2035	+32.44%	0.1110	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.154857	-2.05%	0.2049	+29.60%	0.0831	✗	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.157119	-1.77%	0.191	+19.41%	0.0873	✗	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.152642	-2.09%	0.1799	+15.39%	0.0943	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.150282	-2.35%	0.17065	+10.88%	0.1271	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.151148	-2.33%	0.17415	+12.54%	0.1473	✗	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.153982	-2.54%	0.17405	+10.16%	0.1421	✗	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.155339	-2.64%	0.17835	+11.78%	0.1521	✗	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.160105	-2.46%	0.17865	+8.83%	0.1415	✗	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.15803	-2.33%	0.18025	+11.40%	0.1601	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.152847	-2.89%	0.18485	+17.44%	0.1680	✗	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.158679	-2.53%	0.19115	+17.41%	0.1901	✗	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.162889	-2.67%	0.203	+21.30%	0.2175	✗	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.164885	-2.78%	0.2075	+22.35%	0.2163	✗	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.163215	-2.88%	0.20655	+22.91%	0.2025	✗	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.161992	-2.94%	0.21025	+25.97%	0.2096	✗	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.16627	-2.82%	0.1902	+11.16%	0.1163	✗	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.174373	-2.77%	0.18165	+1.28%	0.0295	✗	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.175133	-2.87%	0.16775	-6.96%	0.0520	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.17843	-3.00%	0.1717	-6.66%	0.0459	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.17122	-3.40%	0.1825	+2.96%	0.0448	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.164541	-3.75%	0.17155	+0.35%	0.0170	✓	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.168087	-3.81%	0.16075	-8.01%	0.1045	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.154028	-4.60%	0.152	-5.85%	0.1338	✓	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.15879	-4.40%	0.1501	-9.63%	0.1289	✓	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.159487	-4.47%	0.1533	-8.18%	0.1264	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.161145	-4.56%	0.15455	-8.47%	0.1163	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.16535	-4.48%	0.1624	-6.18%	0.1230	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.162753	-4.74%	0.1637	-4.18%	0.0850	✓	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.166333	-4.73%	0.15435	-11.60%	0.1358	✓	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.173543	-4.57%	0.15365	-15.51%	0.1679	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.179191	-4.46%	0.1581	-15.70%	0.1653	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.182748	-4.37%	0.15995	-16.30%	0.1967	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.190024	-4.20%	0.1559	-21.40%	0.2170	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.181377	-4.71%	0.1539	-19.15%	0.1871	✓	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.185143	-4.61%	0.15475	-20.27%	0.2167	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.19469	-4.42%	0.158	-22.43%	0.1983	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.190341	-4.73%	0.15955	-20.15%	0.1406	✓	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.187213	-5.02%	0.16415	-16.72%	0.1014	✓	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.183058	-5.35%	0.1618	-16.34%	0.1097	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.179641	-5.65%	0.1574	-17.33%	0.0889	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.179947	-5.79%	0.1628	-14.76%	0.1033	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.18248	-5.91%	0.16735	-13.71%	0.0898	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.163131	-6.99%	0.1696	-3.31%	0.0038	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.163004	-7.25%	0.16805	-4.38%	0.0066	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.170299	-7.24%	0.1669	-9.10%	0.0070	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.169514	-7.62%	0.1711	-6.76%	0.0090	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.163685	-7.63%	0.17935	+1.21%	0.0409	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.162849	-7.94%	0.1803	+1.92%	0.0608	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.176858	-7.79%	0.18395	-4.09%	0.0507	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.195028	-7.04%	0.17725	-15.51%	0.0716	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.190744	-7.54%	0.17095	-17.14%	0.0288	✓	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.207641	-6.43%	0.17475	-21.25%	0.0009	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.208751	-6.09%	0.16145	-27.37%	0.0281	✓	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.20506	-6.30%	0.1661	-24.10%	0.0068	✓	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.204349	-6.37%	0.16695	-23.51%	0.0078	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.200971	-6.53%	0.16885	-21.47%	0.0300	✓	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.209162	-5.95%	0.1731	-22.17%	0.0247	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.215644	-5.17%	0.17085	-24.87%	0.0062	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.223495	-4.20%	0.1746	-25.16%	0.0105	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.22168	-4.20%	0.18185	-21.41%	0.0080	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.232386	-4.13%	0.18755	-22.63%	0.0332	✓	1.00