AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s0

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

151

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

57.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0357

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0055

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.319577	-0.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.340912	-0.67%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0575	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.410182	-3.00%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1843	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.316209	-0.97%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2916	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.366616	-3.11%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1421	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.291202	-0.78%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2627	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.282036	-0.90%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0440	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.263679	-1.81%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0727	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.234911	-1.01%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1455	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.230908	-0.51%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0171	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.22744	-0.35%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0353	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231663	-0.36%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0209	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237809	-0.37%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0255	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.231199	-0.37%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0251	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.225563	-0.26%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0415	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.232075	-0.20%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0078	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.244651	-0.20%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0491	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.261335	-0.29%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0581	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.265033	-0.49%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0252	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.25905	-0.46%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0259	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.257428	-0.43%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0137	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.244497	-0.45%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0454	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243849	-0.57%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0078	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.242047	-0.47%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0116	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.251118	-0.55%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0238	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.244405	-0.49%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0322	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.262206	-0.66%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0681	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.253999	-0.63%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0409	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.251224	-0.70%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0172	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.254575	-1.04%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0088	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.245915	-0.78%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0484	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.235797	-1.30%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0005	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.223759	-0.86%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0662	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.231691	-1.66%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0296	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.248477	-5.56%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1137	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155629	-0.08%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5223	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159221	-0.08%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0298	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164335	-0.25%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0040	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.170165	-1.27%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0510	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166566	-0.11%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0405	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153443	+0.09%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0824	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148742	+0.20%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0209	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.158501	+0.10%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0422	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.16583	-0.07%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0439	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160468	+0.14%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0426	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.165948	+0.15%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0176	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.170687	+0.14%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0367	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.17247	+0.10%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0140	✗	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.196193	+0.02%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1094	✗	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.184195	-0.00%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0099	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.190138	-0.03%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0305	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.193647	-0.00%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0030	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.191054	+0.00%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0020	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.199659	-0.02%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0370	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201961	-0.02%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0162	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.208549	+0.02%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0020	✗	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.210691	-0.03%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0258	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.209042	-0.08%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0019	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.201841	+0.02%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0415	✓	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.206888	-0.08%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0410	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.203336	-0.08%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0093	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.204577	-0.16%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0112	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.190375	-0.33%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0022	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.179253	-0.36%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0105	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.169719	-0.55%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0143	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173139	-0.58%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0179	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.17294	-0.64%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0216	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177203	-0.64%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0147	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177459	-0.67%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0042	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179119	-0.63%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0054	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.183689	-0.63%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0191	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.189934	-0.64%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0250	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.201559	-0.71%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0462	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.205961	-0.74%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0022	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.204979	-0.76%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0133	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.207765	-1.18%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0062	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188524	-0.88%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0984	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.180135	-0.83%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0602	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.166769	-0.58%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0762	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170318	-0.80%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0252	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.180951	-0.85%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0519	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.169203	-1.37%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0631	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.159626	-0.70%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0731	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151324	-0.44%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0949	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149438	-0.44%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0021	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.152708	-0.39%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0181	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.153929	-0.40%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0069	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.161822	-0.36%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0167	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.162988	-0.43%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0224	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153848	-0.33%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0583	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153336	-0.20%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0240	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157838	-0.17%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0086	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159687	-0.16%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0025	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155575	-0.21%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0049	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153627	-0.18%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0053	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154484	-0.17%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0018	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157657	-0.22%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0350	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159175	-0.24%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0097	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163758	-0.24%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0088	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161462	-0.21%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0214	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.156993	-0.26%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0217	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162401	-0.25%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0030	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.166868	-0.29%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0241	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.169086	-0.30%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0036	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167548	-0.30%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0061	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166412	-0.29%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0085	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170608	-0.29%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0008	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178762	-0.33%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0308	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179656	-0.36%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0097	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183149	-0.44%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0254	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176464	-0.44%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0305	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170155	-0.47%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0208	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.173829	-0.53%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0489	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.160627	-0.51%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0552	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165356	-0.45%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0094	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166176	-0.46%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0146	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168078	-0.46%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0027	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172258	-0.49%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0186	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170065	-0.46%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0116	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.17379	-0.46%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0090	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.180978	-0.48%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0030	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186588	-0.51%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0006	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.190186	-0.48%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0281	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.197264	-0.55%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0125	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189451	-0.47%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0317	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.192594	-0.78%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0235	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.201865	-0.90%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0091	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.198199	-0.80%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0500	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.195518	-0.80%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0343	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.192008	-0.72%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0153	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189298	-0.58%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0034	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.189698	-0.68%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0102	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.192187	-0.91%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0058	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.174183	-0.69%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0736	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.174713	-0.59%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0078	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.182362	-0.67%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0149	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.181892	-0.88%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0131	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.176317	-0.50%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0004	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.17609	-0.46%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0093	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.190397	-0.73%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0291	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.208589	-0.58%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0803	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.20417	-1.03%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0673	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.219937	-0.88%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0035	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.220306	-0.90%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0384	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.217293	-0.71%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0254	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.216632	-0.74%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0047	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.213517	-0.69%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0239	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.220367	-0.91%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0138	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.226094	-0.57%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0036	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.232074	-0.53%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0018	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.230179	-0.53%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0099	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.241008	-0.57%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0449	✓	1.00