LIGHTER

? · · beta_5y

token id: #154
symbol: LIGHTER
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-01-15
predictions: 816

Track record at +1d

assessed

271

of 272 predictions shown

direction hit

51.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0451

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0061

actual +0.0027

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	3.8075	3.7767	-0.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.28
2026-10-21	oos	3.422	3.3984	-0.69%	3.8075	+1.18%	0.0157	✗	1.27
2026-10-20	oos	3.382	3.3506	-0.93%	3.422	+1.18%	0.0249	✗	1.30
2026-10-19	oos	3.095	3.0792	-0.51%	3.382	+9.27%	0.0767	✗	1.28
2026-10-18	oos	3.074	3.058	-0.52%	3.095	+0.68%	0.0147	✗	1.30
2026-10-17	oos	3.116	3.1021	-0.45%	3.074	-1.35%	0.0191	✓	1.30
2026-10-16	oos	3.176	3.1573	-0.59%	3.116	-1.89%	0.0113	✓	1.30
2026-10-15	oos	3.0255	3.0151	-0.34%	3.176	+4.97%	0.0620	✗	1.31
2026-10-14	oos	3.085	3.0749	-0.33%	3.0255	-1.93%	0.0251	✓	1.31
2026-10-13	oos	3.3505	3.3327	-0.53%	3.085	-7.92%	0.0531	✓	1.30
2026-10-12	oos	3.3745	3.3587	-0.47%	3.3505	-0.71%	0.0242	✓	1.32
2026-10-11	oos	3.838	3.8087	-0.76%	3.3745	-12.08%	0.0903	✓	1.32
2026-10-10	oos	3.637	3.6159	-0.58%	3.838	+5.53%	0.0469	✗	1.38
2026-10-09	oos	3.628	3.6073	-0.57%	3.637	+0.25%	0.0021	✓	1.38
2026-10-08	oos	3.607	3.5849	-0.61%	3.628	+0.58%	0.0025	✓	1.39
2026-10-07	oos	3.574	3.5567	-0.48%	3.607	+0.92%	0.0417	✗	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	3.818	3.7914	-0.70%	3.574	-6.39%	0.0209	✓	1.42
2026-10-05	oos	4.019	3.9775	-1.03%	3.818	-5.00%	0.0374	✓	1.43
2026-10-04	oos	3.665	3.6413	-0.65%	4.019	+9.66%	0.1117	✗	1.48
2026-10-03	oos	3.567	3.5528	-0.40%	3.665	+2.75%	0.0005	✓	1.48
2026-10-02	oos	3.545	3.5354	-0.27%	3.567	+0.62%	0.0047	✗	1.50
2026-10-01	oos	3.806	3.7901	-0.42%	3.545	-6.86%	0.0608	✓	1.49
2026-09-30	oos	3.948	3.9256	-0.57%	3.806	-3.60%	0.0541	✓	1.51
2026-09-29	oos	3.926	3.9061	-0.51%	3.948	+0.56%	0.0121	✗	1.48
2026-09-28	oos	4.445	4.4137	-0.70%	3.926	-11.68%	0.1204	✓	1.52
2026-09-27	oos	4.655	4.6222	-0.71%	4.445	-4.51%	0.0214	✓	1.48
2026-09-26	oos	4.8445	4.8101	-0.71%	4.655	-3.91%	0.0336	✓	1.48
2026-09-25	oos	4.8545	4.8219	-0.67%	4.8445	-0.21%	0.0010	✓	1.48
2026-09-24	oos	5.071	5.0333	-0.74%	4.8545	-4.27%	0.0310	✓	1.48
2026-09-23	oos	5.309	5.2566	-0.99%	5.071	-4.48%	0.0361	✓	1.48
2026-09-22	oos	5.0675	5.0191	-0.96%	5.309	+4.77%	0.0891	✗	1.55
2026-09-21	oos	4.7405	4.7014	-0.82%	5.0675	+6.90%	0.0816	✗	1.44
2026-09-20	oos	4.778	4.7416	-0.76%	4.7405	-0.78%	0.1078	✓	1.66
2026-09-19	oos	4.8145	4.7766	-0.79%	4.778	-0.76%	0.0018	✓	1.66
2026-09-18	oos	4.7725	4.7346	-0.79%	4.8145	+0.88%	0.0094	✗	1.65
2026-09-17	oos	4.816	4.7745	-0.86%	4.7725	-0.90%	0.1060	✓	1.83
2026-09-16	oos	4.605	4.5596	-0.98%	4.816	+4.58%	0.0498	✗	1.82
2026-09-15	oos	4.0195	4.0026	-0.42%	4.605	+14.57%	0.1267	✗	1.82
2026-09-14	oos	4.3875	4.352	-0.81%	4.0195	-8.39%	0.0198	✓	1.77
2026-09-13	oos	4.1115	4.0916	-0.48%	4.3875	+6.71%	0.0389	✗	1.74
2026-09-12	oos	4.217	4.1994	-0.42%	4.1115	-2.50%	0.0107	✓	1.74
2026-09-11	oos	4.353	4.3343	-0.43%	4.217	-3.12%	0.0286	✓	1.73
2026-09-10	oos	4.2905	4.2799	-0.25%	4.353	+1.46%	0.0017	✓	1.74
2026-09-09	oos	4.5275	4.5118	-0.35%	4.2905	-5.23%	0.0113	✓	1.73
2026-09-08	oos	4.826	4.8056	-0.42%	4.5275	-6.19%	0.0559	✓	1.76
2026-09-07	oos	4.7225	4.7041	-0.39%	4.826	+2.19%	0.0402	✗	1.79
2026-09-06	oos	4.516	4.5042	-0.26%	4.7225	+4.57%	0.0747	✗	1.75
2026-09-05	oos	4.754	4.7386	-0.32%	4.516	-5.01%	0.0592	✓	1.75
2026-09-04	oos	4.823	4.7931	-0.62%	4.754	-1.43%	0.0115	✓	1.68
2026-09-03	oos	4.441	4.4101	-0.70%	4.823	+8.60%	0.1242	✗	1.76
2026-09-02	oos	3.792	3.7741	-0.47%	4.441	+17.11%	0.0860	✗	1.54
2026-09-01	oos	3.52	3.5074	-0.36%	3.792	+7.73%	0.0799	✗	1.58
2026-08-31	oos	3.565	3.5505	-0.41%	3.52	-1.26%	0.0121	✗	1.39
2026-08-30	oos	3.531	3.5151	-0.45%	3.565	+0.96%	0.0034	✓	0.93
2026-08-29	oos	3.554	3.5389	-0.43%	3.531	-0.65%	0.0046	✗	0.94
2026-08-28	oos	3.497	3.481	-0.46%	3.554	+1.63%	0.0160	✗	0.94
2026-08-27	oos	3.711	3.6826	-0.77%	3.497	-5.77%	0.0236	✓	0.91
2026-08-26	oos	3.453	3.4323	-0.60%	3.711	+7.47%	0.0641	✗	0.89
2026-08-25	oos	3.285	3.267	-0.55%	3.453	+5.11%	0.0498	✗	0.88
2026-08-24	oos	3.401	3.3779	-0.68%	3.285	-3.41%	0.0227	✓	0.89
2026-08-23	oos	3.578	3.5417	-1.01%	3.401	-4.95%	0.0564	✓	0.99
2026-08-22	oos	3.187	3.1615	-0.80%	3.578	+12.27%	0.1153	✗	0.97
2026-08-21	oos	3.128	3.0956	-1.04%	3.187	+1.89%	0.0452	✗	0.99
2026-08-20	oos	2.669	2.6492	-0.74%	3.128	+17.20%	0.1076	✗	0.83
2026-08-19	oos	2.602	2.5791	-0.88%	2.669	+2.57%	0.0187	✓	1.01
2026-08-18	oos	2.359	2.3451	-0.59%	2.602	+10.30%	0.0367	✗	0.97
2026-08-17	oos	2.332	2.3189	-0.56%	2.359	+1.16%	0.0140	✗	1.01
2026-08-16	oos	2.276	2.2639	-0.53%	2.332	+2.46%	0.0032	✓	1.03
2026-08-15	oos	2.266	2.2545	-0.51%	2.276	+0.44%	0.0124	✗	1.01
2026-08-14	oos	2.234	2.223	-0.49%	2.266	+1.43%	0.0185	✗	1.02
2026-08-13	oos	2.271	2.2594	-0.51%	2.234	-1.63%	0.0042	✓	1.01
2026-08-12	oos	2.335	2.3224	-0.54%	2.271	-2.74%	0.0226	✓	1.05
2026-08-11	oos	2.418	2.4023	-0.65%	2.335	-3.43%	0.0264	✓	1.04
2026-08-10	oos	2.383	2.3676	-0.64%	2.418	+1.47%	0.0273	✗	1.05
2026-08-09	oos	2.304	2.2908	-0.57%	2.383	+3.43%	0.0554	✗	1.10
2026-08-08	oos	2.282	2.2696	-0.54%	2.304	+0.96%	0.0161	✗	1.10
2026-08-07	oos	2.2975	2.2842	-0.58%	2.282	-0.67%	0.0013	✓	1.09
2026-08-06	oos	2.371	2.3503	-0.87%	2.2975	-3.10%	0.0333	✓	1.10
2026-08-05	oos	2.186	2.171	-0.69%	2.371	+8.46%	0.0939	✗	1.12
2026-08-04	oos	2.056	2.0436	-0.61%	2.186	+6.32%	0.0581	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	2.0035	1.993	-0.52%	2.056	+2.62%	0.0214	✗	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	2.038	2.0281	-0.49%	2.0035	-1.69%	0.0116	✓	1.09
2026-08-01	oos	2.018	2.0092	-0.43%	2.038	+0.99%	0.0018	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	2.068	2.0588	-0.45%	2.018	-2.42%	0.0190	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	2.281	2.267	-0.61%	2.068	-9.34%	0.0624	✓	0.99
2026-07-29	oos	2.179	2.167	-0.55%	2.281	+4.68%	0.0388	✗	0.97
2026-07-28	oos	2.301	2.2837	-0.75%	2.179	-5.30%	0.0476	✓	0.95
2026-07-27	oos	2.129	2.1154	-0.64%	2.301	+8.08%	0.0819	✗	0.93
2026-07-26	oos	2.145	2.1324	-0.59%	2.129	-0.75%	0.0218	✗	0.92
2026-07-25	oos	2.064	2.0545	-0.46%	2.145	+3.92%	0.0280	✗	0.93
2026-07-24	oos	2.0315	2.0235	-0.39%	2.064	+1.60%	0.0168	✗	0.91
2026-07-23	oos	2.1585	2.1488	-0.45%	2.0315	-5.88%	0.0429	✓	0.88
2026-07-22	oos	2.305	2.2916	-0.58%	2.1585	-6.36%	0.0465	✓	0.85
2026-07-21	oos	2.344	2.3261	-0.77%	2.305	-1.66%	0.0036	✓	0.85
2026-07-20	oos	2.179	2.1677	-0.52%	2.344	+7.57%	0.0630	✗	0.77
2026-07-19	oos	2.209	2.1983	-0.48%	2.179	-1.36%	0.0152	✓	0.77
2026-07-18	oos	2.257	2.2456	-0.50%	2.209	-2.13%	0.0151	✓	0.75
2026-07-17	oos	2.288	2.2764	-0.51%	2.257	-1.35%	0.0203	✓	0.84
2026-07-16	oos	2.285	2.2751	-0.43%	2.288	+0.13%	0.0040	✓	0.87
2026-07-15	oos	2.414	2.4013	-0.53%	2.285	-5.34%	0.0374	✓	0.83
2026-07-14	oos	2.595	2.5733	-0.84%	2.414	-6.97%	0.0605	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	2.305	2.2911	-0.60%	2.595	+12.58%	0.0941	✗	0.71
2026-07-12	oos	2.63	2.6079	-0.84%	2.305	-12.36%	0.1088	✓	0.63
2026-07-11	oos	2.577	2.5566	-0.79%	2.63	+2.06%	0.0286	✗	0.63
2026-07-10	oos	2.688	2.6564	-1.18%	2.577	-4.13%	0.0264	✓	0.70
2026-07-09	oos	2.396	2.3775	-0.77%	2.688	+12.19%	0.1129	✗	0.66
2026-07-08	oos	2.3285	2.313	-0.66%	2.396	+2.90%	0.0247	✗	0.71
2026-07-07	oos	2.459	2.4402	-0.76%	2.3285	-5.31%	0.0351	✓	0.68
2026-07-06	oos	2.578	2.5493	-1.11%	2.459	-4.62%	0.0287	✓	0.69
2026-07-05	oos	2.462	2.4337	-1.15%	2.578	+4.71%	0.0531	✗	0.69
2026-07-04	oos	2.199	2.1811	-0.81%	2.462	+11.96%	0.1159	✗	0.67
2026-07-03	oos	2.118	2.1017	-0.77%	2.199	+3.82%	0.0393	✗	0.66
2026-07-02	oos	2.067	2.0502	-0.81%	2.118	+2.47%	0.0216	✗	0.65
2026-07-01	oos	2.074	2.0454	-1.38%	2.067	-0.34%	0.0064	✓	0.68
2026-06-30	oos	1.85	1.8318	-0.99%	2.074	+12.11%	0.1102	✗	0.58
2026-06-29	oos	1.861	1.8426	-0.99%	1.85	-0.59%	0.0199	✗	0.58
2026-06-28	oos	1.731	1.7183	-0.73%	1.861	+7.51%	0.0730	✗	0.59
2026-06-27	oos	1.72	1.7078	-0.71%	1.731	+0.64%	0.0179	✗	0.58
2026-06-26	oos	1.825	1.806	-1.04%	1.72	-5.75%	0.0481	✓	0.58
2026-06-25	oos	1.609	1.5978	-0.70%	1.825	+13.42%	0.1302	✗	0.56
2026-06-24	oos	1.697	1.6786	-1.08%	1.609	-5.19%	0.0306	✓	0.55
2026-06-23	oos	1.504	1.4954	-0.57%	1.697	+12.83%	0.1459	✗	0.72
2026-06-22	oos	1.611	1.5972	-0.85%	1.504	-6.64%	0.0462	✓	0.68
2026-06-21	oos	1.567	1.5558	-0.71%	1.611	+2.81%	0.0274	✗	0.67
2026-06-20	oos	1.558	1.5481	-0.64%	1.567	+0.58%	0.0221	✗	0.64
2026-06-19	oos	1.544	1.5351	-0.57%	1.558	+0.91%	0.0067	✗	0.69
2026-06-18	oos	1.613	1.6027	-0.64%	1.544	-4.28%	0.0440	✓	0.71
2026-06-17	oos	1.72	1.7056	-0.84%	1.613	-6.22%	0.0401	✓	0.64
2026-06-16	oos	1.734	1.7181	-0.92%	1.72	-0.81%	0.0127	✗	0.64
2026-06-15	oos	1.688	1.6724	-0.93%	1.734	+2.73%	0.0432	✗	0.69
2026-06-14	oos	1.684	1.6674	-0.99%	1.688	+0.24%	0.0066	✓	0.66
2026-06-13	oos	1.629	1.6138	-0.93%	1.684	+3.38%	0.0290	✗	0.69
2026-06-12	oos	1.537	1.5246	-0.81%	1.629	+5.99%	0.0572	✗	0.65
2026-06-11	oos	1.558	1.5424	-1.00%	1.537	-1.35%	0.0033	✓	0.65
2026-06-10	oos	1.392	1.3839	-0.58%	1.558	+11.93%	0.0997	✗	0.56
2026-06-09	oos	1.584	1.5649	-1.20%	1.392	-12.12%	0.1149	✓	0.56
2026-06-08	oos	1.467	1.4537	-0.91%	1.584	+7.98%	0.0993	✗	0.61
2026-06-07	oos	1.433	1.4204	-0.88%	1.467	+2.37%	0.0346	✗	0.62
2026-06-06	oos	1.425	1.4152	-0.69%	1.433	+0.56%	0.0119	✓	0.62
2026-06-05	oos	1.503	1.4852	-1.19%	1.425	-5.19%	0.0394	✓	0.66
2026-06-04	oos	1.466	1.4531	-0.88%	1.503	+2.52%	0.0660	✗	0.73
2026-06-03	oos	1.781	1.7451	-2.02%	1.466	-17.69%	0.1715	✓	0.75
2026-06-02	oos	1.606	1.574	-1.99%	1.781	+10.90%	0.1621	✗	0.96
2026-06-01	oos	1.336	1.3245	-0.86%	1.606	+20.21%	0.2885	✗	1.42
2026-05-31	oos	1.377	1.3618	-1.10%	1.336	-2.98%	0.0258	✗	1.44
2026-05-30	oos	1.3695	1.3514	-1.32%	1.377	+0.55%	0.0224	✗	1.36
2026-05-29	oos	1.262	1.2441	-1.42%	1.3695	+8.52%	0.0887	✗	1.35
2026-05-28	oos	1.174	1.164	-0.86%	1.262	+7.50%	0.0836	✗	1.35
2026-05-27	oos	1.128	1.1218	-0.55%	1.174	+4.08%	0.0605	✗	1.38
2026-05-26	oos	1.184	1.1768	-0.61%	1.128	-4.73%	0.0148	✓	1.37
2026-05-25	oos	1.384	1.3655	-1.34%	1.184	-14.45%	0.1200	✓	1.22
2026-05-24	oos	1.295	1.277	-1.39%	1.384	+6.87%	0.0762	✗	1.21
2026-05-23	oos	1.2265	1.2122	-1.17%	1.295	+5.58%	0.0611	✗	1.19
2026-05-22	oos	1.186	1.1732	-1.08%	1.2265	+3.41%	0.0257	✗	1.18
2026-05-21	oos	1.431	1.3975	-2.34%	1.186	-17.12%	0.1344	✓	1.08
2026-05-20	oos	1.278	1.2502	-2.17%	1.431	+11.97%	0.1340	✗	1.09
2026-05-19	oos	1.134	1.1125	-1.90%	1.278	+12.70%	0.1289	✗	1.07
2026-05-18	oos	0.954	0.941063	-1.36%	1.134	+18.87%	0.1891	✗	1.12
2026-05-17	oos	0.8635	0.859734	-0.44%	0.954	+10.48%	0.1110	✗	1.15
2026-05-16	oos	0.8775	0.873602	-0.44%	0.8635	-1.60%	0.0013	✓	1.15
2026-05-15	oos	0.857	0.853733	-0.38%	0.8775	+2.39%	0.0414	✗	1.15
2026-05-14	oos	0.915	0.911085	-0.43%	0.857	-6.34%	0.0325	✓	1.14
2026-05-13	oos	0.898	0.894992	-0.33%	0.915	+1.89%	0.0048	✓	1.20
2026-05-12	oos	0.9265	0.923627	-0.31%	0.898	-3.08%	0.0103	✓	1.19
2026-05-11	oos	0.9995	0.995639	-0.39%	0.9265	-7.30%	0.0540	✓	1.17
2026-05-10	oos	1.059	1.0536	-0.51%	0.9995	-5.62%	0.0460	✓	1.17
2026-05-09	oos	1.053	1.047	-0.57%	1.059	+0.57%	0.0110	✓	1.18
2026-05-08	oos	1.077	1.0699	-0.66%	1.053	-2.23%	0.0228	✓	1.18
2026-05-07	oos	0.989	0.98312	-0.59%	1.077	+8.90%	0.0885	✗	1.17
2026-05-06	oos	0.954	0.949679	-0.45%	0.989	+3.67%	0.0625	✗	1.23
2026-05-05	oos	0.966	0.958923	-0.73%	0.954	-1.24%	0.0120	✓	1.04
2026-05-04	oos	0.906	0.902527	-0.38%	0.966	+6.62%	0.0550	✗	0.99
2026-05-03	oos	0.923	0.918924	-0.44%	0.906	-1.84%	0.0306	✓	1.00
2026-05-02	oos	0.908	0.904467	-0.39%	0.923	+1.65%	0.0219	✗	1.02
2026-05-01	oos	0.903	0.899247	-0.42%	0.908	+0.55%	0.0039	✓	1.02
2026-04-30	oos	0.8845	0.881007	-0.39%	0.903	+2.09%	0.0011	✓	1.03
2026-04-29	oos	0.9475	0.940612	-0.73%	0.8845	-6.65%	0.0690	✓	1.04
2026-04-28	oos	0.897	0.892004	-0.56%	0.9475	+5.63%	0.0687	✗	1.13
2026-04-27	oos	0.8635	0.860331	-0.37%	0.897	+3.88%	0.0572	✗	1.14
2026-04-26	oos	0.913	0.909508	-0.38%	0.8635	-5.42%	0.0327	✓	1.15
2026-04-25	oos	0.93	0.925916	-0.44%	0.913	-1.83%	0.0293	✓	1.17
2026-04-24	oos	0.9475	0.942892	-0.49%	0.93	-1.85%	0.0167	✓	1.20
2026-04-23	oos	0.9245	0.920211	-0.46%	0.9475	+2.49%	0.0418	✗	1.20
2026-04-22	oos	0.8805	0.877677	-0.32%	0.9245	+5.00%	0.0509	✗	1.20
2026-04-21	oos	0.8975	0.894323	-0.35%	0.8805	-1.89%	0.0447	✓	1.21
2026-04-20	oos	0.9005	0.897775	-0.30%	0.8975	-0.33%	0.0080	✓	1.22
2026-04-19	oos	0.89	0.887638	-0.27%	0.9005	+1.18%	0.0183	✓	1.20
2026-04-18	oos	0.976	0.973174	-0.29%	0.89	-8.81%	0.0589	✓	1.19
2026-04-17	oos	1.0495	1.0448	-0.45%	0.976	-7.00%	0.0469	✓	1.19
2026-04-16	oos	1.043	1.0387	-0.41%	1.0495	+0.62%	0.0200	✓	1.20
2026-04-15	oos	1.0425	1.0378	-0.45%	1.043	+0.05%	0.0003	✓	1.19
2026-04-14	oos	1.0235	1.0202	-0.32%	1.0425	+1.86%	0.0111	✗	1.19
2026-04-13	oos	1.1435	1.1374	-0.54%	1.0235	-10.49%	0.1012	✓	1.19
2026-04-12	oos	1.094	1.089	-0.46%	1.1435	+4.52%	0.0122	✓	1.20
2026-04-11	oos	1.206	1.197	-0.74%	1.094	-9.29%	0.0517	✓	1.18
2026-04-10	oos	1.136	1.1269	-0.80%	1.206	+6.16%	0.0664	✗	1.18
2026-04-09	oos	1.016	1.0118	-0.41%	1.136	+11.81%	0.0966	✗	1.16
2026-04-08	oos	0.999	0.995144	-0.39%	1.016	+1.70%	0.0092	✗	1.16
2026-04-07	oos	1.073	1.066	-0.65%	0.999	-6.90%	0.0516	✓	1.15
2026-04-06	oos	1.0245	1.019	-0.54%	1.073	+4.73%	0.0017	✓	1.15
2026-04-05	oos	1.0095	1.0047	-0.48%	1.0245	+1.49%	0.0220	✗	1.15
2026-04-04	oos	0.986	0.981195	-0.49%	1.0095	+2.38%	0.0005	✓	1.15
2026-04-03	oos	0.989	0.982431	-0.66%	0.986	-0.30%	0.0021	✓	1.15
2026-04-02	oos	0.949	0.940778	-0.87%	0.989	+4.21%	0.0489	✗	1.15
2026-04-01	oos	0.889	0.884743	-0.48%	0.949	+6.75%	0.0911	✗	1.16
2026-03-31	oos	0.871	0.867552	-0.40%	0.889	+2.07%	0.0263	✗	1.16
2026-03-30	oos	0.8075	0.806116	-0.17%	0.871	+7.86%	0.0522	✗	1.14
2026-03-29	oos	0.8265	0.825149	-0.16%	0.8075	-2.30%	0.0352	✓	1.15
2026-03-28	oos	0.8575	0.855983	-0.18%	0.8265	-3.62%	0.0287	✓	1.15
2026-03-27	oos	0.8825	0.880807	-0.19%	0.8575	-2.83%	0.0262	✓	1.15
2026-03-26	oos	0.912	0.910591	-0.15%	0.8825	-3.23%	0.0100	✗	1.16
2026-03-25	oos	0.9945	0.992038	-0.25%	0.912	-8.30%	0.0429	✓	1.14
2026-03-24	oos	1.0085	1.0056	-0.29%	0.9945	-1.39%	0.0235	✓	1.15
2026-03-23	oos	0.954	0.95217	-0.19%	1.0085	+5.71%	0.0630	✗	1.15
2026-03-22	oos	0.9405	0.939363	-0.12%	0.954	+1.44%	0.0354	✓	1.17
2026-03-21	oos	1.052	1.05	-0.19%	0.9405	-10.60%	0.0921	✓	1.15
2026-03-20	oos	1.064	1.0627	-0.13%	1.052	-1.13%	0.0162	✗	1.16
2026-03-19	oos	1.1945	1.1908	-0.31%	1.064	-10.93%	0.1223	✓	1.18
2026-03-18	oos	1.213	1.2087	-0.36%	1.1945	-1.53%	0.0104	✗	1.18
2026-03-17	oos	1.296	1.2868	-0.71%	1.213	-6.40%	0.0157	✓	1.17
2026-03-16	oos	1.1645	1.1605	-0.35%	1.296	+11.29%	0.1256	✗	1.19
2026-03-15	oos	1.087	1.0857	-0.12%	1.1645	+7.13%	0.0376	✗	1.17
2026-03-14	oos	1.107	1.1052	-0.17%	1.087	-1.81%	0.0428	✓	1.18
2026-03-13	oos	1.0995	1.0977	-0.17%	1.107	+0.68%	0.0037	✗	1.18
2026-03-12	oos	1.1525	1.1494	-0.27%	1.0995	-4.60%	0.0513	✓	1.19
2026-03-11	oos	1.0715	1.0696	-0.18%	1.1525	+7.56%	0.0692	✗	1.18
2026-03-10	oos	1.055	1.053	-0.19%	1.0715	+1.56%	0.0132	✗	1.18
2026-03-09	oos	1.021	1.0193	-0.16%	1.055	+3.33%	0.0085	✗	1.17
2026-03-08	oos	1.019	1.0178	-0.12%	1.021	+0.20%	0.0407	✓	1.20
2026-03-07	oos	1.13	1.1282	-0.16%	1.019	-9.82%	0.0789	✓	1.18
2026-03-06	oos	1.14	1.1387	-0.12%	1.13	-0.88%	0.0072	✗	1.18
2026-03-05	oos	1.2085	1.2071	-0.12%	1.14	-5.67%	0.0100	✓	1.18
2026-03-04	oos	1.373	1.3681	-0.36%	1.2085	-11.98%	0.0952	✓	1.15
2026-03-03	oos	1.301	1.2984	-0.20%	1.373	+5.53%	0.0164	✓	1.17
2026-03-02	oos	1.357	1.3538	-0.24%	1.301	-4.13%	0.0313	✓	1.17
2026-03-01	oos	1.359	1.3551	-0.28%	1.357	-0.15%	0.0542	✓	1.22
2026-02-28	oos	1.38	1.3755	-0.32%	1.359	-1.52%	0.0100	✗	1.22
2026-02-27	oos	1.358	1.3545	-0.26%	1.38	+1.62%	0.0018	✓	1.22
2026-02-26	oos	1.4295	1.425	-0.32%	1.358	-5.00%	0.0184	✓	1.22
2026-02-25	oos	1.456	1.4489	-0.49%	1.4295	-1.82%	0.0044	✓	1.22
2026-02-24	oos	1.4305	1.4247	-0.40%	1.456	+1.78%	0.0551	✓	1.29
2026-02-23	oos	1.386	1.3814	-0.33%	1.4305	+3.21%	0.0461	✗	1.29
2026-02-22	oos	1.4465	1.4422	-0.29%	1.386	-4.18%	0.0190	✗	1.30
2026-02-21	oos	1.514	1.5088	-0.34%	1.4465	-4.46%	0.0357	✓	1.30
2026-02-20	oos	1.532	1.5261	-0.38%	1.514	-1.17%	0.0074	✓	1.31
2026-02-19	oos	1.476	1.471	-0.34%	1.532	+3.79%	0.0211	✗	1.30
2026-02-18	oos	1.445	1.4414	-0.25%	1.476	+2.15%	0.0130	✗	1.30
2026-02-17	oos	1.591	1.5851	-0.37%	1.445	-9.18%	0.0724	✓	1.29
2026-02-16	oos	1.687	1.6792	-0.46%	1.591	-5.69%	0.0278	✓	1.28
2026-02-15	oos	1.68	1.6705	-0.56%	1.687	+0.42%	0.0086	✗	1.28
2026-02-14	oos	1.645	1.6358	-0.56%	1.68	+2.13%	0.0451	✗	1.29
2026-02-13	oos	1.5985	1.5897	-0.55%	1.645	+2.91%	0.0201	✗	1.00
2026-02-12	oos	1.426	1.4205	-0.38%	1.5985	+12.10%	0.0795	✗	1.00
2026-02-11	oos	1.418	1.4131	-0.35%	1.426	+0.56%	0.0214	✗	1.00
2026-02-10	oos	1.471	1.4657	-0.36%	1.418	-3.60%	0.0069	✓	1.00
2026-02-09	oos	1.547	1.5407	-0.41%	1.471	-4.91%	0.0276	✓	1.00
2026-02-08	oos	1.62	1.6121	-0.49%	1.547	-4.51%	0.0387	✓	1.00
2026-02-07	oos	1.63	1.6216	-0.51%	1.62	-0.61%	0.0158	✓	1.00
2026-02-06	oos	1.664	1.6521	-0.72%	1.63	-2.04%	0.0049	✓	1.00
2026-02-05	oos	1.436	1.4319	-0.29%	1.664	+15.88%	0.0341	✗	1.00
2026-02-04	oos	1.576	1.5662	-0.62%	1.436	-8.88%	0.0638	✗	1.00
2026-02-03	oos	1.482	1.4749	-0.48%	1.576	+6.34%	0.1022	✗	1.00
2026-02-02	oos	1.593	1.5836	-0.59%	1.482	-6.97%	0.0274	✓	1.00
2026-02-01	oos	1.512	1.5048	-0.47%	1.593	+5.36%	0.0342	✗	1.00
2026-01-31	oos	1.564	1.5571	-0.44%	1.512	-3.32%	0.0069	✓	1.00
2026-01-30	oos	1.723	1.7135	-0.55%	1.564	-9.23%	0.0241	✓	1.00
2026-01-29	oos	1.612	1.6061	-0.37%	1.723	+6.89%	0.0750	✗	1.00
2026-01-28	oos	1.99	1.9739	-0.81%	1.612	-18.99%	0.1490	✓	1.00
2026-01-27	oos	1.939	1.9216	-0.90%	1.99	+2.63%	0.0345	✗	1.00
2026-01-26	oos	1.708	1.6974	-0.62%	1.939	+13.52%	0.1233	✗	1.00
2026-01-25	oos	1.5775	1.5708	-0.43%	1.708	+8.27%	0.0645	✗	1.00
2026-01-24	oos	1.806	1.7931	-0.72%	1.5775	-12.65%	0.0994	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.