2022-02-15 · +1d

lstm_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 150 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

-0.0419

150 of 150 tokens assessed

long-short decile

-2.13%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

50.7%

in alpha space · 54.0% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-1.54%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (150 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.9311	6.964	+0.47%	6.8827	-0.70%	0.0019	✓	0.88	3.9M	2022-02-16
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.33	1.3354	+0.41%	1.274	-4.21%	0.0279	✗	1.23	3.4M	2022-02-16
XMR	Monero	Monero	182.65	183.2721	+0.34%	179.36	-1.80%	0.0058	✗	1.02	1.2M	2022-02-16
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	16.17	16.2244	+0.34%	15.91	-1.61%	0.0032	✓	1.05	483k	2022-02-16
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.86024	0.86261	+0.28%	0.83537	-2.89%	0.0086	✗	1.51	334k	2022-02-16
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.711	3.7212	+0.27%	3.6017	-2.95%	0.0158	✗	1.08	2.5M	2022-02-16
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01398	0.014017	+0.27%	0.01389	-0.64%	0.0028	✓	0.76	13k	2022-02-16
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.8	1.8046	+0.25%	1.81	+0.56%	0.0227	✓	1.26	1.3M	2022-02-16
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	44,051.40	44,161.86	+0.25%	43,960.80	-0.21%	0.0106	✓	0.98	51k	2022-02-16
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.066837	0.066995	+0.24%	0.066472	-0.55%	0.0058	✓	0.88	327k	2022-02-16
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.296	0.296697	+0.24%	0.288	-2.70%	0.0150	✗	0.95	77k	2022-02-16
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,186.24	3,193.74	+0.24%	3,124.45	-1.94%	0.0043	✗	1.14	581.4M	2022-02-16
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.4	7.4172	+0.23%	7.24	-2.16%	0.0195	✗	0.30	1.2M	2022-02-16
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.9639	4.9751	+0.22%	4.8292	-2.71%	0.0106	✗	1.23	343k	2022-02-16
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	172.28	172.6549	+0.22%	170.44	-1.07%	0.0090	✓	1.41	8.0M	2022-02-16
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	0.99	0.992138	+0.22%	0.97	-2.02%	0.0070	✗	1.00	270k	2022-02-16
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.767	1.7707	+0.21%	1.688	-4.47%	0.0294	✗	1.19	2.1M	2022-02-16
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.03092	0.030981	+0.20%	0.03216	+4.01%	0.0506	✓	0.86	6.2M	2022-02-16
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.09827	0.098457	+0.19%	0.09789	-0.39%	0.0120	✓	1.14	51k	2022-02-16
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.73	2.7348	+0.18%	2.67	-2.20%	0.0079	✗	1.03	388k	2022-02-16
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.115	6.1254	+0.17%	6.358	+3.97%	0.0506	✓	0.86	72k	2022-02-16
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.77	2.7747	+0.17%	2.65	-4.33%	0.0262	✗	1.27	390k	2022-02-16
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.48	2.4841	+0.16%	2.4	-3.23%	0.0188	✗	1.01	3.2M	2022-02-16
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.286	3.2914	+0.16%	3.217	-2.10%	0.0102	✗	0.81	218k	2022-02-16
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.8634	1.8664	+0.16%	1.8241	-2.11%	0.0052	✗	1.14	69k	2022-02-16
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.889	7.9017	+0.16%	8.239	+4.44%	0.0471	✓	0.34	37k	2022-02-16
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	176.23	176.4888	+0.15%	166.77	-5.37%	0.0380	✗	1.20	930k	2022-02-16
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0747	0.074809	+0.15%	0.0757	+1.34%	0.0291	✓	1.11	17k	2022-02-16
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.772	4.7787	+0.14%	4.803	+0.65%	0.0181	✓	0.84	383k	2022-02-16
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.62	6.6283	+0.13%	6.52	-1.51%	0.0035	✗	0.83	482k	2022-02-16
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5812	0.581926	+0.12%	0.5683	-2.22%	0.0026	✗	1.36	2.4M	2022-02-16
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.72	5.7266	+0.12%	5.47	-4.37%	0.0335	✗	0.80	407k	2022-02-16
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.2264	1.2278	+0.12%	1.1915	-2.84%	0.0138	✗	1.04	211k	2022-02-16
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.91	6.9176	+0.11%	6.76	-2.17%	0.0092	✗	0.89	449k	2022-02-16
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	44,583.52	44,632.46	+0.11%	43,895.56	-1.54%	0.0011	✓	1.00	642.7M	2022-02-16
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.17939	0.179571	+0.10%	0.17624	-1.76%	0.0061	✓	1.60	34k	2022-02-16
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.826	0.826828	+0.10%	0.787	-4.72%	0.0321	✗	1.11	1.8M	2022-02-16
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.475	2.4773	+0.09%	2.452	-0.93%	0.0069	✓	1.10	20k	2022-02-16
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		97.61	97.6997	+0.09%	94.6	-3.08%	0.0182	✗	0.91	1.2M	2022-02-16
ZEN	Horizen	Base	43.12	43.1571	+0.09%	40.62	-5.80%	0.0365	✗	1.55	400k	2022-02-16
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	17.35	17.3639	+0.08%	17.14	-1.21%	0.0059	✓	1.21	70.2M	2022-02-16
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05586	0.055904	+0.08%	0.05759	+3.10%	0.0516	✓	1.41	1.2M	2022-02-16
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1078	0.107876	+0.07%	0.1052	-2.41%	0.0009	✗	1.56	1.1M	2022-02-16
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	33.49	33.5091	+0.06%	32.25	-3.70%	0.0219	✗	1.06	5.5M	2022-02-16
XEM	NEM	native	0.1143	0.114357	+0.05%	0.1142	-0.09%	0.0149	✓	1.05	39k	2022-02-16
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.4669	0.467111	+0.05%	0.4482	-4.01%	0.0139	✗	1.76	24.6M	2022-02-16
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.887	2.8882	+0.04%	2.809	-2.70%	0.0069	✗	1.34	1.1M	2022-02-16
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.08132	0.081354	+0.04%	0.08117	-0.18%	0.0097	✓	0.77	86k	2022-02-16
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003122	0.000031232	+0.04%	0.00003095	-0.86%	0.0128	✓	1.40	2.4M	2022-02-16
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	7.558	7.5604	+0.03%	7.454	-1.38%	0.0011	✓	0.98	407k	2022-02-16
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2792	0.279284	+0.03%	0.2693	-3.55%	0.0200	✗	1.06	1.7M	2022-02-16
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.03447	0.03448	+0.03%	0.03198	-7.22%	0.0564	✗	1.21	10.4M	2022-02-16
KCS	KuCoin	native	20.577	20.5827	+0.03%	20.855	+1.35%	0.0335	✓	1.31	10.2M	2022-02-16
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.642394	0.64253	+0.02%	0.677091	+5.40%	0.0705	✓	1.17	3.5M	2022-02-16
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2.16	2.1604	+0.02%	2.13	-1.39%	0.0066	✓	1.33	2.2M	2022-02-16
HIVE	Hive	native	1.1327	1.1329	+0.02%	1.1125	-1.78%	0.0076	✓	1.66	1.9M	2022-02-16
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	6.26	6.261	+0.02%	6.08	-2.88%	0.0124	✗	1.09	590k	2022-02-16
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.66	5.6607	+0.01%	6.07	+7.24%	0.0866	✓	1.08	682k	2022-02-16
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	9.87	9.8707	+0.01%	11.78	+19.35%	0.1976	✓	1.33	3.0M	2022-02-16
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2217	0.221716	+0.01%	0.2202	-0.68%	0.0154	✓	1.43	3.7M	2022-02-16
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.151784	0.151784	+0.00%	0.148737	-2.01%	0.0044	✗	1.02	6.4M	2022-02-16
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01107	0.01107	-0.00%	0.01078	-2.62%	0.0104	✓	1.04	483k	2022-02-16
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.017306	0.017306	-0.00%	0.016969	-1.95%	0.0016	✓	1.16	503k	2022-02-16
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5957	0.59567	-0.01%	0.602	+1.06%	0.0270	✗	1.06	948k	2022-02-16
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4932	0.493141	-0.01%	0.4872	-1.22%	0.0096	✗	1.40	8.9M	2022-02-16
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04542	0.045414	-0.01%	0.04466	-1.67%	0.0014	✗	1.17	30k	2022-02-16
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	136.04	136.0187	-0.02%	136.01	-0.02%	0.0205	✗	1.32	58k	2022-02-16
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	126.04	126.0179	-0.02%	125.58	-0.36%	0.0154	✗	1.22	7.2M	2022-02-16
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.09	5.089	-0.02%	4.9	-3.73%	0.0183	✓	1.26	2.6M	2022-02-16
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.9859	0.985673	-0.02%	0.9602	-2.61%	0.0023	✓	1.54	588k	2022-02-16
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1761	0.176055	-0.03%	0.1747	-0.80%	0.0032	✗	0.70	388k	2022-02-16
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	17.36	17.3545	-0.03%	16.75	-3.51%	0.0248	✓	0.68	1.2M	2022-02-16
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	11.15	11.1465	-0.03%	10.78	-3.32%	0.0227	✓	0.69	760k	2022-02-16
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	28.67	28.6599	-0.04%	28.63	-0.14%	0.0232	✗	1.56	2.0M	2022-02-16
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	56.85	56.829	-0.04%	56.02	-1.46%	0.0078	✗	1.42	6.9M	2022-02-16
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	132.67	132.6206	-0.04%	129.55	-2.35%	0.0073	✓	1.03	7.8M	2022-02-16
SOL	Solana	Solana	105.61	105.5691	-0.04%	101.94	-3.48%	0.0150	✓	1.29	179.7M	2022-02-16
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.581	3.5793	-0.05%	3.514	-1.87%	0.0047	✓	0.88	502k	2022-02-16
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9706	0.97009	-0.05%	0.9791	+0.88%	0.0268	✗	1.13	26.7M	2022-02-16
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.6605	0.660142	-0.05%	0.6989	+5.81%	0.0808	✗	1.53	709k	2022-02-16
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.005	1.0044	-0.06%	0.983	-2.19%	0.0000	✓	1.38	2.5M	2022-02-16
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.1087	1.1081	-0.06%	1.0833	-2.29%	0.0051	✓	1.13	107.6M	2022-02-16
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.3139	0.313706	-0.06%	0.3067	-2.29%	0.0049	✓	1.14	538k	2022-02-16
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	18.44	18.4286	-0.06%	17.65	-4.28%	0.0160	✓	1.75	3.6M	2022-02-16
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8985	0.897913	-0.07%	0.8933	-0.58%	0.0122	✗	1.12	12.4M	2022-02-16
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	131.74	131.6526	-0.07%	127.84	-2.96%	0.0099	✓	1.26	34.8M	2022-02-16
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.2864	0.286183	-0.08%	0.285	-0.49%	0.0199	✗	1.55	4.2M	2022-02-16
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1666	0.166472	-0.08%	0.1678	+0.72%	0.0239	✗	1.03	470k	2022-02-16
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.022313	0.022295	-0.08%	0.021773	-2.42%	0.0045	✓	1.23	2.4M	2022-02-16
XVG	Verge	native	0.01191	0.0119	-0.08%	0.01171	-1.68%	0.0054	✗	1.39	1.2M	2022-02-16
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.0136	0.013588	-0.09%	0.01344	-1.18%	0.0135	✗	1.58	1.8M	2022-02-16
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.971	1.9693	-0.09%	1.952	-0.96%	0.0121	✗	1.35	1.1M	2022-02-16
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.029039	0.029011	-0.10%	0.028284	-2.60%	0.0051	✓	1.30	91k	2022-02-16
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.1483	4.1442	-0.10%	4.0382	-2.65%	0.0058	✓	1.30	2.4M	2022-02-16
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.54	0.539458	-0.10%	0.539	-0.19%	0.0216	✗	1.44	4.5M	2022-02-16
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.65	4.6453	-0.10%	4.87	+4.73%	0.0669	✗	1.26	1.9M	2022-02-16
XEC	eCash	native	0.00008792	0.00008783	-0.10%	0.00008539	-2.88%	0.0103	✓	1.15	4.8M	2022-02-16
DASH	Dash	Dash	109.33	109.2166	-0.10%	115.33	+5.49%	0.0719	✗	1.12	2.0M	2022-02-16
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4864	0.485881	-0.11%	0.4754	-2.26%	0.0016	✗	1.50	2.0M	2022-02-16
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.121	0.120867	-0.11%	0.116	-4.13%	0.0255	✓	1.00	70k	2022-02-16
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.3357	2.333	-0.11%	2.2584	-3.31%	0.0128	✓	1.27	436k	2022-02-16
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.221086	0.22082	-0.12%	0.21874	-1.06%	0.0065	✗	1.03	21.9M	2022-02-16
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0872	0.087095	-0.12%	0.0851	-2.41%	0.0040	✓	1.23	195k	2022-02-16
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	29.01	28.9701	-0.14%	28.51	-1.72%	0.0015	✗	1.12	68.5M	2022-02-16
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.92	1.9173	-0.14%	1.86	-3.12%	0.0087	✓	1.39	2.9M	2022-02-16
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6.39	6.381	-0.14%	6.53	+2.19%	0.0394	✗	1.05	1.9M	2022-02-16
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000222	0.000002217	-0.15%	0.00000218	-1.80%	0.0012	✓	1.00	14.5M	2022-02-16
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	23.7	23.6632	-0.16%	24.03	+1.39%	0.0396	✗	1.56	383k	2022-02-16
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04668	0.046603	-0.16%	0.04583	-1.82%	0.0040	✓	0.82	2.4M	2022-02-16
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	21.78	21.7428	-0.17%	22.08	+1.38%	0.0334	✗	1.16	24.7M	2022-02-16
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00613	0.006119	-0.18%	0.00601	-1.96%	0.0134	✗	2.02	18.1M	2022-02-16
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	93.07	92.8718	-0.21%	95.39	+2.49%	0.0493	✗	1.45	102.9M	2022-02-16
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	11.48	11.4545	-0.22%	11.22	-2.26%	0.0002	✓	1.34	12.2M	2022-02-16
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	24,489.02	24,431.73	-0.23%	23,690.00	-3.26%	0.0160	✓	0.95	7.4M	2022-02-16
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	29.09	29.0219	-0.23%	28.31	-2.68%	0.0101	✓	0.95	1.2M	2022-02-16
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	3.18	3.1725	-0.24%	3.17	-0.31%	0.0216	✗	1.44	17.3M	2022-02-16
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	4.0137	4.0039	-0.24%	3.9514	-1.55%	0.0020	✓	0.97	2.3M	2022-02-16
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	7.5634	7.5433	-0.27%	7.8678	+4.02%	0.0652	✗	1.48	145k	2022-02-16
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	22.33	22.2665	-0.28%	23.08	+3.36%	0.0549	✗	1.22	10.4M	2022-02-16
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	343.69	342.6971	-0.29%	334.55	-2.66%	0.0086	✓	1.00	8.9M	2022-02-16
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	20.19	20.1289	-0.30%	19.78	-2.03%	0.0038	✗	1.37	34.9M	2022-02-16
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.98	1.9738	-0.31%	1.86	-6.06%	0.0407	✓	1.20	1.4M	2022-02-16
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1628	0.162275	-0.32%	0.1562	-4.05%	0.0173	✓	1.34	3.3M	2022-02-16
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	98.6528	98.3108	-0.35%	95.5515	-3.14%	0.0048	✓	1.52	315k	2022-02-16
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	47.17	47.0057	-0.35%	46.38	-1.67%	0.0048	✗	1.17	30.8M	2022-02-16
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.3318	1.3269	-0.36%	1.4263	+7.10%	0.0921	✗	1.28	2.3M	2022-02-16
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.388	0.386557	-0.37%	0.373	-3.87%	0.0149	✓	1.34	2.3M	2022-02-16
ORCA	Orca	Solana	3.23	3.2178	-0.38%	3.17	-1.86%	0.0006	✓	1.00	882k	2022-02-16
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0729	0.072612	-0.40%	0.0695	-4.66%	0.0164	✓	1.76	64.3M	2022-02-16
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.21	1.2051	-0.41%	1.12	-7.44%	0.0517	✓	1.38	751k	2022-02-16
STX	Stacks	native	1.58	1.5734	-0.42%	1.55	-1.90%	0.0006	✓	1.00	997k	2022-02-16
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	7.99	7.9565	-0.42%	8.24	+3.13%	0.0406	✗	0.36	1.7M	2022-02-16
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0343	0.034152	-0.43%	0.0335	-2.33%	0.0036	✓	1.47	499k	2022-02-16
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.776	3.7597	-0.43%	3.7402	-0.95%	0.0087	✗	0.89	30k	2022-02-16
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	63.31	63.0183	-0.46%	63.42	+0.17%	0.0262	✗	1.27	8.8M	2022-02-16
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	5.179	5.1549	-0.47%	5.046	-2.57%	0.0054	✓	1.03	709k	2022-02-16
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.6393	0.63624	-0.48%	0.625	-2.24%	0.0122	✗	1.93	1.8M	2022-02-16
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.43	4.4085	-0.49%	4.3	-2.93%	0.0032	✓	1.40	8.0M	2022-02-16
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.85	2.8334	-0.58%	3.31	+16.14%	0.1710	✗	1.00	639k	2022-02-16
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.9474	5.9114	-0.61%	5.8668	-1.36%	0.0024	✓	0.33	441k	2022-02-16
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.335	3.3142	-0.62%	3.2632	-2.15%	0.0015	✓	1.10	3.1M	2022-02-16
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0929	0.092233	-0.72%	0.09	-3.12%	0.0030	✓	1.38	784k	2022-02-16
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	2.1748	2.1582	-0.76%	2.2822	+4.94%	0.0657	✗	0.63	2.9M	2022-02-16
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.3014	1.2915	-0.76%	1.2019	-7.65%	0.0575	✓	0.92	1.5M	2022-02-16
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.054953	0.054525	-0.78%	0.056084	+2.06%	0.0482	✗	1.29	7.4M	2022-02-16
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.37	2.3501	-0.84%	2.34	-1.27%	0.0261	✗	1.95	870k	2022-02-16
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	2.46	2.4383	-0.88%	2.348	-4.55%	0.0222	✓	1.00	85k	2022-02-16
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.3864	1.3727	-0.99%	1.6305	+17.61%	0.1970	✗	1.60	131k	2022-02-16
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.65	4.5987	-1.10%	4.58	-1.51%	0.0015	✓	0.36	1.8M	2022-02-16
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.11	1.0948	-1.37%	1.05	-5.41%	0.0103	✓	2.02	1.1M	2022-02-16

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.