2022-01-30 · +1d

lstm_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 145 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.0475

145 of 145 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+1.43%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

57.2%

in alpha space · 25.2% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+1.56%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (145 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.03743	0.037582	+0.40%	0.037542	+0.30%	0.0223	✗	1.38	199k	2022-01-31
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	46.21	46.3256	+0.25%	52.15	+12.85%	0.0931	✓	1.64	8.8M	2022-01-31
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	75.0918	75.1172	+0.03%	75.0775	-0.02%	0.0196	✗	1.23	410k	2022-01-31
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.5944	0.59459	+0.03%	0.6166	+3.73%	0.0126	✓	1.53	1.3M	2022-01-31
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	149.01	149.0104	+0.00%	157.59	+5.76%	0.0349	✓	1.36	12.7M	2022-01-31
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.09	5.0895	-0.01%	5.8	+13.95%	0.1153	✗	0.99	1.0M	2022-01-31
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.0074	0.007398	-0.03%	0.00728	-1.62%	0.0526	✓	2.36	22.6M	2022-01-31
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	7.79	7.7873	-0.03%	7.94	+1.93%	0.0009	✓	1.31	2.8M	2022-01-31
SOL	Solana	Solana	93.31	93.2691	-0.04%	99.52	+6.66%	0.0464	✗	1.19	152.8M	2022-01-31
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.732	0.731649	-0.05%	0.731	-0.14%	0.0180	✓	1.10	1.7M	2022-01-31
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1816	0.18151	-0.05%	0.1889	+4.02%	0.0188	✗	1.36	3.8M	2022-01-31
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	0.81	0.809551	-0.06%	0.82	+1.23%	0.0105	✓	1.51	511k	2022-01-31
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.058692	0.058646	-0.08%	0.059132	+0.75%	0.0064	✓	0.95	431k	2022-01-31
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.553313	0.552877	-0.08%	0.567335	+2.53%	0.0069	✗	1.22	3.4M	2022-01-31
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.64	0.639479	-0.08%	0.64	+0.00%	0.0280	✓	1.87	1.2M	2022-01-31
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	10.8	10.7906	-0.09%	11.78	+9.07%	0.0671	✗	1.34	12.2M	2022-01-31
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.09	4.0862	-0.09%	4.23	+3.42%	0.0138	✗	1.35	9.9M	2022-01-31
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.7915	6.7849	-0.10%	6.867	+1.11%	0.0024	✓	0.93	4.1M	2022-01-31
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	117.46	117.3455	-0.10%	121.39	+3.35%	0.0141	✗	1.28	66k	2022-01-31
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.2301	2.2279	-0.10%	2.1315	-4.42%	0.0634	✓	1.24	888k	2022-01-31
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	5.92	5.9141	-0.10%	6.25	+5.57%	0.0403	✗	0.97	953k	2022-01-31
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.04709	0.04704	-0.11%	0.04586	-2.61%	0.0462	✓	1.34	9.2M	2022-01-31
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002109	0.000021066	-0.11%	0.00002142	+1.56%	0.0052	✓	1.41	1.6M	2022-01-31
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.587	3.5828	-0.12%	3.7199	+3.71%	0.0379	✗	-0.02	323k	2022-01-31
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	67.98	67.898	-0.12%	69.92	+2.85%	0.0087	✗	1.34	83.8M	2022-01-31
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.5641	1.5622	-0.12%	1.5526	-0.74%	0.0234	✓	1.11	82k	2022-01-31
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	94.77	94.654	-0.12%	97.15	+2.51%	0.0100	✗	1.04	7.3M	2022-01-31
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	27.19	27.1562	-0.12%	28.07	+3.24%	0.0157	✗	1.12	127.6M	2022-01-31
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	5.737	5.7298	-0.13%	5.389	-6.07%	0.0768	✓	1.00	1.4M	2022-01-31
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	290.04	289.6679	-0.13%	285.23	-1.66%	0.0316	✓	1.04	6.8M	2022-01-31
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.4444	0.443819	-0.13%	0.4369	-1.69%	0.0385	✓	1.47	2.0M	2022-01-31
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,602.89	2,599.45	-0.13%	2,689.72	+3.34%	0.0170	✗	1.11	557.7M	2022-01-31
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.897	0.895691	-0.15%	0.915	+2.01%	0.0000	✓	1.38	2.3M	2022-01-31
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1251	0.124917	-0.15%	0.1361	+8.79%	0.0710	✗	0.96	285k	2022-01-31
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.243	2.2394	-0.16%	2.247	+0.18%	0.0134	✓	1.08	23k	2022-01-31
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	163.11	162.845	-0.16%	159.75	-2.06%	0.0378	✓	1.20	1.2M	2022-01-31
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.313	0.312477	-0.17%	0.318	+1.60%	0.0039	✓	1.39	1.6M	2022-01-31
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.27	2.2662	-0.17%	2.39	+5.29%	0.0349	✗	1.18	602k	2022-01-31
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	18.19	18.1589	-0.17%	19.39	+6.60%	0.0443	✗	1.38	48.0M	2022-01-31
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	37,655.60	37,587.80	-0.18%	38,589.30	+2.48%	0.0106	✗	1.01	47k	2022-01-31
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.496	0.495101	-0.18%	0.491	-1.01%	0.0321	✓	1.54	5.0M	2022-01-31
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	26.29	26.2423	-0.18%	27.02	+2.78%	0.0032	✗	1.68	2.6M	2022-01-31
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	24.92	24.8745	-0.18%	25.67	+3.01%	0.0148	✗	1.08	3.3M	2022-01-31
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		90.34	90.1715	-0.19%	91.32	+1.08%	0.0020	✓	0.95	1.6M	2022-01-31
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	5.92	5.9089	-0.19%	5.95	+0.51%	0.0097	✓	1.07	2.3M	2022-01-31
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.37	6.3577	-0.19%	6.54	+2.67%	0.0248	✗	0.22	1.2M	2022-01-31
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.233	7.2188	-0.20%	7.318	+1.18%	0.0097	✗	0.25	39k	2022-01-31
XMR	Monero	Monero	148.16	147.8657	-0.20%	147.48	-0.46%	0.0183	✓	1.01	2.0M	2022-01-31
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2398	0.239312	-0.20%	0.2423	+1.04%	0.0068	✓	1.24	1.9M	2022-01-31
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	1.0017	0.99966	-0.20%	0.9985	-0.32%	0.0315	✓	1.96	984k	2022-01-31
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.14	2.1356	-0.20%	2.15	+0.47%	0.0174	✓	1.56	2.4M	2022-01-31
DASH	Dash	Dash	92.77	92.5798	-0.21%	94.18	+1.52%	0.0012	✓	1.19	2.9M	2022-01-31
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.57	2.5646	-0.21%	2.69	+4.67%	0.0239	✗	1.54	2.2M	2022-01-31
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.101	6.0881	-0.21%	6.119	+0.30%	0.0078	✓	0.83	119k	2022-01-31
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.0959	3.0894	-0.21%	3.1164	+0.66%	0.0083	✓	1.10	3.3M	2022-01-31
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.486	1.4828	-0.22%	1.547	+4.10%	0.0240	✗	1.19	1.6M	2022-01-31
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	2.13	2.1254	-0.22%	2.16	+1.41%	0.0076	✓	1.54	4.2M	2022-01-31
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.3997	0.39883	-0.22%	0.409	+2.33%	0.0053	✗	1.29	10.0M	2022-01-31
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.66	1.6563	-0.22%	1.68	+1.20%	0.0056	✓	1.28	2.1M	2022-01-31
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5123	0.511146	-0.23%	0.5492	+7.20%	0.0507	✗	1.36	2.6M	2022-01-31
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.066	0.065851	-0.23%	0.0658	-0.30%	0.0182	✓	1.12	21k	2022-01-31
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	93.02	92.8075	-0.23%	94.57	+1.67%	0.0018	✓	1.33	6.6M	2022-01-31
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04035	0.040257	-0.23%	0.04045	+0.25%	0.0128	✓	1.13	29k	2022-01-31
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4519	0.450862	-0.23%	0.464	+2.68%	0.0074	✗	1.38	2.2M	2022-01-31
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.16	6.1457	-0.23%	6.26	+1.62%	0.0063	✗	0.78	481k	2022-01-31
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.2781	3.2701	-0.25%	3.4938	+6.58%	0.0451	✗	1.36	2.5M	2022-01-31
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	19.1	19.0528	-0.25%	20.15	+5.50%	0.0275	✗	1.84	3.9M	2022-01-31
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	108.59	108.3214	-0.25%	109.55	+0.88%	0.0094	✓	1.34	33.8M	2022-01-31
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007524	0.000075052	-0.25%	0.00007633	+1.45%	0.0004	✓	1.12	5.8M	2022-01-31
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02962	0.029545	-0.25%	0.02978	+0.54%	0.0065	✓	0.93	8.7M	2022-01-31
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.158	1.1551	-0.25%	1.1648	+0.59%	0.0072	✓	1.01	369k	2022-01-31
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.00971	0.009685	-0.25%	0.00993	+2.27%	0.0052	✗	1.28	2.1M	2022-01-31
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00984	0.009815	-0.26%	0.00994	+1.02%	0.0036	✓	1.06	588k	2022-01-31
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9447	0.942248	-0.26%	0.9504	+0.60%	0.0094	✓	1.17	34.5M	2022-01-31
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	19.28	19.2297	-0.26%	19.82	+2.80%	0.0108	✗	1.25	34.3M	2022-01-31
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8142	0.812053	-0.26%	0.8338	+2.41%	0.0094	✗	1.10	17.8M	2022-01-31
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.251	0.250335	-0.26%	0.247	-1.59%	0.0283	✓	0.97	61k	2022-01-31
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	20.05	19.9968	-0.27%	20.51	+2.29%	0.0011	✓	1.57	687k	2022-01-31
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.28	5.2658	-0.27%	5.25	-0.57%	0.0142	✓	0.73	429k	2022-01-31
KCS	KuCoin	native	17.407	17.3593	-0.27%	18.065	+3.78%	0.0164	✗	1.52	10.6M	2022-01-31
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.45	3.4405	-0.27%	3.48	+0.87%	0.0079	✓	1.25	2.5M	2022-01-31
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3236	0.32271	-0.28%	0.3291	+1.70%	0.0046	✓	1.57	4.2M	2022-01-31
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.021008	0.02095	-0.28%	0.021024	+0.08%	0.0140	✓	1.13	3.1M	2022-01-31
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	19.84	19.7837	-0.28%	21.3	+7.36%	0.0555	✗	1.19	12.6M	2022-01-31
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	5.9884	5.9713	-0.29%	6.0678	+1.33%	0.0063	✓	1.44	204k	2022-01-31
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1153	0.114967	-0.29%	0.1136	-1.47%	0.0323	✓	1.32	3.8M	2022-01-31
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	0.8483	0.845835	-0.29%	0.8388	-1.12%	0.0319	✓	1.52	106k	2022-01-31
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0352	0.035095	-0.30%	0.0352	+0.00%	0.0198	✓	1.47	756k	2022-01-31
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0797	0.079461	-0.30%	0.0812	+1.88%	0.0025	✓	1.24	317k	2022-01-31
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.038887	0.038769	-0.30%	0.039278	+1.01%	0.0060	✓	1.23	9.4M	2022-01-31
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.0776	1.0743	-0.30%	1.0903	+1.18%	0.0051	✓	1.29	2.4M	2022-01-31
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	37,901.35	37,786.09	-0.30%	38,491.93	+1.56%	0.0030	✓	1.00	682.8M	2022-01-31
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.0359	1.0327	-0.30%	1.0524	+1.59%	0.0014	✓	1.13	113.2M	2022-01-31
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	53.4	53.2366	-0.31%	52.38	-1.91%	0.0342	✓	1.16	7.8M	2022-01-31
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.693	2.6847	-0.31%	2.683	-0.37%	0.0243	✓	1.53	986k	2022-01-31
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.195399	0.194787	-0.31%	0.199723	+2.21%	0.0089	✗	1.04	26.2M	2022-01-31
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08818	0.087903	-0.31%	0.08784	-0.39%	0.0193	✓	1.20	46k	2022-01-31
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0619	0.061705	-0.32%	0.0619	+0.00%	0.0189	✓	1.43	564k	2022-01-31
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.067	3.0573	-0.32%	3.042	-0.82%	0.0173	✓	0.80	378k	2022-01-31
ZEN	Horizen	Base	40.22	40.0907	-0.32%	41	+1.94%	0.0022	✓	1.59	639k	2022-01-31
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.48	2.4719	-0.33%	2.5	+0.81%	0.0045	✓	1.02	789k	2022-01-31
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.414	1.4094	-0.33%	1.359	-3.89%	0.0561	✓	1.28	3.5M	2022-01-31
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.014098	0.014051	-0.33%	0.014268	+1.21%	0.0031	✓	1.19	2.7M	2022-01-31
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	7.28	7.2557	-0.33%	7.35	+0.96%	0.0083	✗	0.30	1.9M	2022-01-31
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.8343	4.8178	-0.34%	5.0138	+3.71%	0.0208	✗	1.23	430k	2022-01-31
XVG	Verge	native	0.00997	0.009936	-0.34%	0.01022	+2.51%	0.0076	✗	1.33	1.6M	2022-01-31
HIVE	Hive	native	0.9375	0.934297	-0.34%	0.9619	+2.60%	0.0057	✗	1.52	2.0M	2022-01-31
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.0137	3.0034	-0.34%	3.0665	+1.75%	0.0047	✗	1.04	2.0M	2022-01-31
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.078	4.064	-0.34%	4.108	+0.74%	0.0014	✓	0.79	381k	2022-01-31
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	14.23	14.1793	-0.36%	14.36	+0.91%	0.0027	✓	0.99	847k	2022-01-31
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.05311	0.05292	-0.36%	0.04985	-6.14%	0.0752	✓	1.00	5.9M	2022-01-31
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.32	9.2862	-0.36%	9.62	+3.22%	0.0237	✗	0.75	744k	2022-01-31
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2571	0.256148	-0.37%	0.2718	+5.72%	0.0417	✗	1.14	557k	2022-01-31
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.138	3.1262	-0.38%	3.227	+2.84%	0.0183	✗	0.87	840k	2022-01-31
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.14	6.1158	-0.39%	6.27	+2.12%	0.0118	✗	0.85	529k	2022-01-31
API3	Api3	Ethereum	3.63	3.6155	-0.40%	3.41	-6.06%	0.0619	✓	0.22	1.1M	2022-01-31
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.9	1.8924	-0.40%	1.95	+2.63%	0.0087	✗	1.37	2.8M	2022-01-31
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.83304	0.829598	-0.41%	0.85261	+2.35%	0.0009	✓	1.71	534k	2022-01-31
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	3.18	3.1669	-0.41%	3.27	+2.83%	0.0104	✗	1.40	24.6M	2022-01-31
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.139318	0.138723	-0.43%	0.141646	+1.67%	0.0046	✗	1.05	7.1M	2022-01-31
XEM	NEM	native	0.1024	0.101963	-0.43%	0.1022	-0.20%	0.0140	✓	1.05	40k	2022-01-31
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	17.77	17.6919	-0.44%	17.16	-3.43%	0.0494	✓	1.22	84.3M	2022-01-31
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01326	0.0132	-0.45%	0.01331	+0.38%	0.0058	✓	0.91	17k	2022-01-31
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1781	0.177293	-0.45%	0.1836	+3.09%	0.0245	✗	0.67	500k	2022-01-31
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.5078	2.4962	-0.46%	2.8223	+12.54%	0.1082	✗	0.94	2.6M	2022-01-31
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	41.05	40.8364	-0.52%	43.58	+6.16%	0.0462	✗	1.22	35.1M	2022-01-31
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.788	1.7787	-0.52%	1.888	+5.59%	0.0395	✗	1.30	1.5M	2022-01-31
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.7386	1.7294	-0.53%	1.887	+8.54%	0.0754	✗	0.76	2.8M	2022-01-31
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	23,834.59	23,706.07	-0.54%	24,852.85	+4.27%	0.0330	✗	0.92	18.0M	2022-01-31
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.789	5.7573	-0.55%	5.904	+1.99%	0.0098	✗	0.99	320k	2022-01-31
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.27	2.2572	-0.56%	2.31	+1.76%	0.0077	✗	1.00	3.4M	2022-01-31
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.5593	0.556057	-0.58%	0.5403	-3.40%	0.0577	✓	1.87	48.9M	2022-01-31
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07979	0.079317	-0.59%	0.07979	+0.00%	0.0062	✓	0.79	76k	2022-01-31
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5479	0.544591	-0.60%	0.549	+0.20%	0.0101	✓	1.17	2.1M	2022-01-31
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.25	5.2179	-0.61%	5.73	+9.14%	0.0739	✗	1.27	3.1M	2022-01-31
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.02	13.9342	-0.61%	14.25	+1.64%	0.0119	✗	0.68	829k	2022-01-31
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.0595	0.059121	-0.64%	0.058	-2.52%	0.0417	✓	1.46	1.7M	2022-01-31
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.18014	0.178926	-0.67%	0.19016	+5.56%	0.0365	✗	1.57	23k	2022-01-31
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1219	0.120939	-0.79%	0.1215	-0.33%	0.0186	✓	1.50	1.8M	2022-01-31
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.0214	2.9967	-0.82%	3.1775	+5.17%	0.0451	✗	0.87	22k	2022-01-31
STX	Stacks	native	1.49	1.4774	-0.84%	1.49	+0.00%	0.0070	✓	1.00	2.1M	2022-01-31
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	25.75	25.5276	-0.86%	25.21	-2.10%	0.0246	✓	0.78	430k	2022-01-31
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.3913	1.3786	-0.91%	1.2778	-8.16%	0.0914	✓	1.00	3.2M	2022-01-31
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.122	0.120677	-1.08%	0.122	+0.00%	0.0046	✓	1.00	149k	2022-01-31
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0774	0.075655	-2.25%	0.0975	+25.97%	0.2150	✗	2.50	23.2M	2022-01-31

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.