2022-01-03 · +30d

lstm_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 138 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2248

138 of 138 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+8.27%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

82.6%

in alpha space · 97.1% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-20.53%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (138 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.076988	0.076862	-0.16%	0.058639	-23.83%	0.0547	✓	0.94	552k	2022-02-02
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	15.52	15.3007	-1.41%	7.83	-49.55%	0.4047	✓	1.15	3.5M	2022-02-02
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	434.61	428.1589	-1.48%	278	-36.03%	0.1994	✓	1.01	9.1M	2022-02-02
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.4392	6.3303	-1.69%	6.8016	+5.63%	0.2651	✗	0.84	3.9M	2022-02-02
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.7914	3.7183	-1.93%	4.1355	+9.08%	0.0808	✗	-0.11	374k	2022-02-02
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,766.04	3,689.18	-2.04%	2,682.66	-28.77%	0.0801	✓	1.04	654.8M	2022-02-02
XYM	Symbol	native	0.2058	0.201567	-2.06%	0.1756	-14.67%	0.0008	✓	0.60	428k	2022-02-02
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.022053	0.021598	-2.06%	0.014783	-32.97%	0.1023	✓	1.20	2.4M	2022-02-02
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.616	1.5798	-2.24%	0.883	-45.36%	0.2850	✓	1.29	3.4M	2022-02-02
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	4.777	4.667	-2.30%	3.166	-33.72%	0.2135	✓	0.76	1.2M	2022-02-02
NANO	nanopay	Base	3.5792	3.4955	-2.34%	2.1064	-41.15%	0.2616	✓	1.07	754k	2022-02-02
SOL	Solana	Solana	170.13	166.0177	-2.42%	101.99	-40.05%	0.2423	✓	1.07	217.0M	2022-02-02
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.09008	0.087864	-2.46%	0.05325	-40.89%	0.1666	✓	1.45	3.0M	2022-02-02
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	46,018.20	44,877.76	-2.48%	37,883.40	-17.68%	0.0553	✗	0.98	10k	2022-02-02
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	3.43	3.3432	-2.53%	2.41	-29.74%	0.0980	✓	1.00	995k	2022-02-02
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.7048	0.686798	-2.55%	0.5398	-23.41%	0.0507	✗	1.27	5.3M	2022-02-02
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.682	1.6368	-2.69%	1.279	-23.96%	0.0661	✗	1.36	6.0M	2022-02-02
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.6582	0.640347	-2.71%	0.4048	-38.50%	0.1614	✓	1.29	11.4M	2022-02-02
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.05659	0.054957	-2.89%	0.03913	-30.85%	0.0870	✓	1.10	15k	2022-02-02
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	7.21	6.9999	-2.91%	5.04	-30.10%	0.1820	✓	0.64	861k	2022-02-02
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	8.89	8.6256	-2.97%	6.02	-32.28%	0.2207	✓	0.60	869k	2022-02-02
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	1.24	1.203	-2.98%	0.719	-42.02%	0.2985	✓	0.94	2.5M	2022-02-02
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	4.152	4.0277	-2.99%	3.03	-27.02%	0.1323	✓	0.66	483k	2022-02-02
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	34.72	33.6524	-3.07%	26.29	-24.28%	0.0080	✓	1.04	3.9M	2022-02-02
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	148.43	143.8411	-3.09%	108.36	-27.00%	0.0263	✓	1.35	38.3M	2022-02-02
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	267.25	258.9485	-3.11%	151.26	-43.40%	0.2778	✓	1.13	12.6M	2022-02-02
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	222.2	215.2133	-3.14%	121.22	-45.45%	0.3108	✓	1.15	210k	2022-02-02
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.1177	3.0189	-3.17%	3.0352	-2.65%	0.2808	✗	1.20	3.1M	2022-02-02
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.086	0.083269	-3.18%	0.0643	-25.23%	0.0122	✓	1.07	20k	2022-02-02
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.1004	0.097196	-3.19%	0.0599	-40.34%	0.1708	✓	1.36	1.6M	2022-02-02
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	9.436	9.1339	-3.20%	5.754	-39.02%	0.3218	✓	0.61	302k	2022-02-02
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	8.6	8.3122	-3.35%	6.05	-29.65%	0.1424	✓	0.76	773k	2022-02-02
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	5.152	4.979	-3.36%	3.998	-22.40%	0.0808	✓	0.60	598k	2022-02-02
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.8156	4.6533	-3.37%	3.7524	-22.08%	0.0914	✗	1.33	4.9M	2022-02-02
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	46,459.56	44,875.16	-3.41%	36,923.39	-20.53%	0.0347	✗	1.00	727.0M	2022-02-02
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.14	1.1009	-3.43%	0.64	-43.86%	0.3127	✓	1.00	1.9M	2022-02-02
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.56	2.4718	-3.44%	1.63	-36.33%	0.1732	✓	1.06	4.0M	2022-02-02
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	2.3545	2.2711	-3.54%	1.6005	-32.02%	0.0917	✓	1.12	100k	2022-02-02
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.12106	0.116686	-3.61%	0.08941	-26.14%	0.0132	✓	1.10	26k	2022-02-02
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		122.18	117.6082	-3.74%	90	-26.34%	0.0485	✓	0.95	3.2M	2022-02-02
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	4.6279	4.4522	-3.80%	3.1357	-32.24%	0.0538	✓	1.29	5.0M	2022-02-02
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	289.65	278.5222	-3.84%	162.31	-43.96%	0.2837	✓	1.12	1.3M	2022-02-02
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	29.28	28.1507	-3.86%	21.59	-26.26%	0.0582	✗	1.41	24.2M	2022-02-02
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	9.2052	8.8456	-3.91%	6.025	-34.55%	0.0588	✓	1.42	273k	2022-02-02
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	35.08	33.7067	-3.91%	20.19	-42.45%	0.2734	✓	1.04	22.7M	2022-02-02
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.0855	0.082103	-3.97%	0.0418	-51.11%	0.3956	✓	1.22	20.9M	2022-02-02
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.170103	0.163224	-4.04%	0.137104	-19.40%	0.0787	✗	1.10	4.7M	2022-02-02
KCS	KuCoin	native	22.363	21.4556	-4.06%	17.776	-20.51%	0.1872	✗	1.63	14.1M	2022-02-02
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1984	0.19034	-4.06%	0.1348	-32.06%	0.1368	✓	0.91	527k	2022-02-02
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.3186	1.2649	-4.07%	1.0268	-22.13%	0.0433	✗	1.10	98.5M	2022-02-02
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0731	0.070109	-4.09%	0.034	-53.49%	0.4025	✓	1.40	1.7M	2022-02-02
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	178.99	171.6352	-4.11%	113.54	-36.57%	0.1930	✓	0.96	8.7M	2022-02-02
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.94026	0.900559	-4.22%	0.5718	-39.19%	0.1973	✓	1.12	2.8M	2022-02-02
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.0636	0.060914	-4.22%	0.035872	-43.60%	0.2101	✓	1.39	7.5M	2022-02-02
XMR	Monero	Monero	231.81	221.981	-4.24%	145.08	-37.41%	0.1945	✓	1.00	3.2M	2022-02-02
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	31.64	30.2949	-4.25%	23.57	-25.51%	0.0954	✓	0.68	385k	2022-02-02
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.904	0.865201	-4.29%	0.465	-48.56%	0.2828	✓	1.47	8.1M	2022-02-02
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	15.18	14.5274	-4.30%	14.09	-7.18%	0.1269	✗	0.69	1.2M	2022-02-02
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.3721	0.355916	-4.35%	0.2314	-37.81%	0.1379	✓	1.27	3.4M	2022-02-02
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	94.38	90.2325	-4.39%	49.12	-47.96%	0.3872	✓	0.96	6.3M	2022-02-02
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.2052	0.196144	-4.41%	0.1092	-46.78%	0.3007	✓	1.24	4.8M	2022-02-02
DASH	Dash	Dash	139.05	132.8824	-4.44%	93.05	-33.08%	0.0652	✓	1.27	1.9M	2022-02-02
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	18.47	17.6465	-4.46%	10.53	-42.99%	0.2215	✓	1.28	14.1M	2022-02-02
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01736	0.016576	-4.52%	0.00952	-45.16%	0.2582	✓	1.29	2.2M	2022-02-02
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.3948	1.3318	-4.52%	1.8613	+33.45%	0.5875	✗	1.10	926k	2022-02-02
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	6.1828	5.8974	-4.62%	4.6307	-25.10%	0.0341	✓	1.20	577k	2022-02-02
XEC	eCash	native	0.00011648	0.000111049	-4.66%	0.00007582	-34.91%	0.1561	✓	0.98	7.4M	2022-02-02
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	4.57	4.3538	-4.73%	3.03	-33.70%	0.1328	✓	1.00	2.5M	2022-02-02
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	30.09	28.6599	-4.75%	18.76	-37.65%	0.1278	✓	1.29	72.5M	2022-02-02
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	36.41	34.6696	-4.78%	20.09	-44.82%	0.1943	✓	1.53	1.1M	2022-02-02
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	40.22	38.2935	-4.79%	42.9	+6.66%	0.3559	✗	1.05	19.4M	2022-02-02
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	2.265	2.1563	-4.80%	1.589	-29.85%	0.0476	✓	1.12	2.7M	2022-02-02
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	191.896	182.5156	-4.89%	73.5972	-61.65%	0.6414	✓	1.16	574k	2022-02-02
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.72	1.6354	-4.92%	1.36	-20.93%	0.2107	✗	1.72	1.0M	2022-02-02
XEM	NEM	native	0.127	0.120716	-4.95%	0.1015	-20.08%	0.0794	✗	1.10	115k	2022-02-02
BAND	Band	Ethereum	5.56	5.2845	-4.95%	3.37	-39.39%	0.1762	✓	1.19	2.1M	2022-02-02
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	1.5062	1.431	-4.99%	0.37	-75.43%	1.1649	✓	0.82	4.5M	2022-02-02
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	23.72	22.534	-5.00%	15.79	-33.43%	0.0515	✓	1.32	69.2M	2022-02-02
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.3005	0.285453	-5.01%	0.1803	-40.00%	0.1597	✓	1.30	4.6M	2022-02-02
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003307	0.000031381	-5.11%	0.00002064	-37.59%	0.1328	✓	1.25	1.7M	2022-02-02
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.57	3.3874	-5.11%	2.46	-31.09%	0.0712	✓	1.08	626k	2022-02-02
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01573	0.014924	-5.13%	0.00983	-37.51%	0.1981	✓	0.96	817k	2022-02-02
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.51	9.9711	-5.13%	9.36	-10.94%	0.1083	✗	0.75	1.3M	2022-02-02
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	3.25	3.082	-5.17%	1.87	-42.46%	0.1999	✓	1.30	3.0M	2022-02-02
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.290288	0.275254	-5.18%	0.193151	-33.46%	0.1206	✓	1.02	24.9M	2022-02-02
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.197	0.186762	-5.20%	0.11	-44.16%	0.2571	✓	1.19	2.4M	2022-02-02
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.3842	1.3097	-5.38%	0.8404	-39.29%	0.2285	✓	0.94	21.2M	2022-02-02
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	11.29	10.68	-5.40%	5.22	-53.76%	0.5232	✓	0.84	1.2M	2022-02-02
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	150.55	142.3563	-5.44%	98.35	-34.67%	0.0596	✓	1.35	10.3M	2022-02-02
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.414	0.391358	-5.47%	0.25	-39.61%	0.2801	✓	0.73	41k	2022-02-02
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.05248	0.049601	-5.49%	0.02927	-44.23%	0.3216	✓	0.90	8.2M	2022-02-02
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.11092	0.104718	-5.59%	0.07379	-33.47%	0.2029	✓	0.64	55k	2022-02-02
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.02023	0.019095	-5.61%	0.0126	-37.72%	0.2673	✓	0.65	36k	2022-02-02
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	8.51	8.032	-5.62%	4.09	-51.94%	0.3743	✓	1.31	17.7M	2022-02-02
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3888	0.366589	-5.71%	0.2783	-28.42%	0.0666	✗	1.49	3.4M	2022-02-02
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1352	0.12729	-5.85%	0.0794	-41.27%	0.2256	✓	1.07	310k	2022-02-02
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	24.7	23.234	-5.94%	13.76	-44.29%	0.2875	✓	1.03	1.3M	2022-02-02
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.796	2.6295	-5.96%	1.696	-39.34%	0.2037	✓	1.02	1.9M	2022-02-02
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	88.92	83.5343	-6.06%	47.6	-46.47%	0.3327	✓	1.00	5.3M	2022-02-02
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	8.316	7.7982	-6.23%	5.883	-29.26%	0.0086	✓	1.26	354k	2022-02-02
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	1.2437	1.1639	-6.42%	0.6281	-49.50%	0.2954	✓	1.40	1.9M	2022-02-02
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.6942	0.649386	-6.46%	0.4277	-38.39%	0.1132	✓	1.32	2.9M	2022-02-02
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	1.3019	1.2167	-6.55%	0.81012	-37.77%	0.0017	✓	1.76	1.3M	2022-02-02
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.374	0.349505	-6.55%	0.278	-25.67%	0.0004	✓	0.99	293k	2022-02-02
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	108.09	100.7828	-6.76%	67.87	-37.21%	0.1393	✓	1.11	119.6M	2022-02-02
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	3.89	3.6188	-6.97%	1.9	-51.16%	0.3403	✓	1.32	11.2M	2022-02-02
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.64	0.594902	-7.05%	0.316	-50.63%	0.3428	✓	1.26	2.2M	2022-02-02
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.8521	1.7158	-7.36%	1.1125	-39.93%	0.2488	✓	0.80	689k	2022-02-02
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	9.27	8.5835	-7.41%	5.49	-40.78%	0.1907	✓	1.12	3.9M	2022-02-02
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.7949	1.6614	-7.44%	0.9235	-48.55%	0.3319	✓	1.11	30.0M	2022-02-02
XVG	Verge	native	0.01731	0.016021	-7.44%	0.00978	-43.50%	0.2195	✓	1.19	2.2M	2022-02-02
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	11.56	10.6981	-7.46%	6.53	-43.51%	0.5321	✓	-0.17	2.3M	2022-02-02
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	41.84	38.6236	-7.69%	26.55	-36.54%	0.0040	✓	1.65	2.8M	2022-02-02
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.13	3.8122	-7.69%	3.4	-17.68%	0.1153	✗	1.00	1.0M	2022-02-02
ZEN	Horizen	Base	63.44	58.5262	-7.75%	38.13	-39.90%	0.0820	✓	1.51	837k	2022-02-02
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	39.23	36.1815	-7.77%	18.01	-54.09%	0.2846	✓	1.80	5.7M	2022-02-02
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		13.612	12.5445	-7.84%	7.564	-44.43%	0.5188	✓	-0.06	98k	2022-02-02
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	39.29	36.1624	-7.96%	26.33	-32.99%	0.1088	✓	0.91	43.4M	2022-02-02
METRONOME	METRONOME		4.605	4.2373	-7.98%	3.3042	-28.25%	0.0898	✓	0.69	18k	2022-02-02
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	6.53	6.0065	-8.02%	3.11	-52.37%	0.3476	✓	1.35	29.3M	2022-02-02
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	12.81	11.7799	-8.04%	5.77	-54.96%	0.5753	✓	0.60	1.3M	2022-02-02
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.033837	0.031115	-8.05%	0.020246	-40.17%	0.1945	✓	1.02	7.8M	2022-02-02
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	7.19	6.6056	-8.13%	5.33	-25.87%	0.0470	✓	1.14	3.3M	2022-02-02
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	2.0456	1.8791	-8.14%	0.8664	-57.65%	0.3429	✓	1.88	1.5M	2022-02-02
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.467	3.174	-8.45%	2.582	-25.53%	0.1603	✗	1.60	1.9M	2022-02-02
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.02216	0.020277	-8.50%	0.00607	-72.61%	0.9764	✓	1.00	29.0M	2022-02-02
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	3.381	3.0925	-8.53%	2.235	-33.90%	0.1306	✓	0.85	41k	2022-02-02
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.0025	0.915414	-8.69%	0.8666	-13.56%	0.1749	✗	1.00	146k	2022-02-02
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.1235	0.112627	-8.80%	0.0786	-36.36%	0.1300	✓	1.00	35.9M	2022-02-02
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	38,753.93	35,306.55	-8.90%	23,029.36	-40.58%	0.2887	✓	0.60	15.7M	2022-02-02
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	4.17	3.7628	-9.76%	2.18	-47.72%	0.3161	✓	1.00	3.4M	2022-02-02
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.5394	1.3799	-10.36%	1.0423	-32.29%	0.0622	✓	0.95	3.7M	2022-02-02
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.2506	2.9016	-10.74%	2.537	-21.95%	0.0820	✓	0.94	5.9M	2022-02-02
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.19941	0.177835	-10.82%	0.19118	-4.13%	0.4325	✗	1.57	6,519	2022-02-02
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.8413	0.748301	-11.05%	0.4666	-44.54%	0.0785	✓	1.71	31.9M	2022-02-02
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	13.72	11.9721	-12.74%	7.54	-45.04%	0.4628	✓	-0.00	3.7M	2022-02-02
HIVE	Hive	native	1.6303	1.4198	-12.91%	0.9455	-42.00%	0.0896	✓	1.38	5.5M	2022-02-02
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.64	0.538862	-15.80%	0.5361	-16.23%	0.3145	✗	1.39	650k	2022-02-02

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.