DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s8

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

164

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

62.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1239

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0057

actual -0.0319

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	1.9788	-0.49%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.8293	-0.45%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.0864	✗	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	3.0461	-0.75%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.5188	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.335	-0.97%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0810	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.55	-1.14%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0604	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	11.2872	-3.06%	3.591	-69.16%	1.1438	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	2.2804	-1.26%	11.643	+404.14%	1.6380	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.9448	-1.28%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.2498	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	4.0327	-1.16%	2.983	-26.89%	0.2828	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	5.4287	-1.42%	4.08	-25.91%	0.3021	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	9.0396	-1.13%	5.507	-39.77%	0.4722	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	17.1098	-0.82%	9.143	-47.00%	0.6359	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	16.524	-1.14%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.0386	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	16.9157	-1.45%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.0223	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	24.2017	-1.25%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.3244	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	43.1006	-1.03%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.5377	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	84.3193	-1.33%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6583	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000372713	-0.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000376405	-0.89%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0269	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.00024889	-0.24%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3662	✗	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268243	-0.28%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0659	✓	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000307757	-0.37%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1796	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000269516	-0.25%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1539	✗	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000280298	-0.25%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0530	✓	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000309093	-0.36%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0717	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000300469	-0.34%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0390	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278248	-0.20%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0247	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000302072	-0.27%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0722	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000303454	-0.31%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0407	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330611	-0.42%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0779	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000306499	-0.33%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0803	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000325505	-0.40%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0708	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000298579	-0.27%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0829	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000303589	-0.30%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0014	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000319729	-0.40%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0284	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000313395	-0.35%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0230	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000407002	-0.88%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2431	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000364947	-0.72%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1044	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000322341	-0.42%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0978	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000326148	-0.53%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0020	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000291051	-0.36%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1411	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.00022697	+0.12%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2688	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000238948	+0.10%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0504	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.00020737	+0.37%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1282	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000213291	+0.37%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0159	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000213876	+0.65%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1279	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000222531	+0.37%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1944	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000265338	+0.17%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1244	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000268967	+0.10%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0476	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000254301	+0.28%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0226	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000272428	+0.19%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0345	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000309263	-0.11%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0123	✓	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000343955	-0.24%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.0971	✓	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000410742	-0.67%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0894	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000351072	-0.35%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1629	✗	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000344366	-0.27%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0080	✗	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.00034484	-0.19%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0283	✓	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000391447	-0.42%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0822	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000408575	-0.49%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0318	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000402935	-0.46%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0186	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000359896	-0.28%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1159	✗	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000404278	-0.38%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1339	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000444975	-0.50%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0128	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000506863	-0.63%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1044	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000519697	-0.63%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0080	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000538122	-0.70%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0215	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.00052258	-0.63%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0378	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000566849	-0.73%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0515	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000577455	-0.78%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0373	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000545911	-0.74%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0200	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000595566	-0.85%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0861	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000643991	-1.06%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0798	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000550801	-0.72%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1702	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000576555	-0.75%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0270	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000574797	-0.71%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0162	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000649885	-0.80%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0626	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000682918	-0.90%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0384	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000661329	-0.89%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0104	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000623242	-0.82%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0487	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.00062242	-0.83%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0045	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000584723	-0.64%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0440	✗	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.00056945	-0.53%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0055	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000616479	-0.65%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0534	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000597603	-0.48%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0091	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000612463	-0.49%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0027	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000586734	-0.35%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0465	✗	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.00062539	-0.37%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0698	✓	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000610717	-0.26%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0251	✗	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000590738	-0.16%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0441	✗	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000614445	-0.14%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0422	✓	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000680095	-0.24%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0745	✓	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.00068171	-0.19%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0019	✓	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.00068875	-0.14%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0157	✓	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.00070486	-0.10%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0271	✓	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000616128	+0.12%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0764	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.00062519	+0.11%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0013	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000740318	+0.02%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1338	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.00081414	+0.02%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1276	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000884541	-0.05%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0436	✓	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001041	-0.16%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1177	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001027	-0.14%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0163	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001096	-0.18%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0160	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001224	-0.26%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1192	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001317	-0.34%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0573	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.00134	-0.34%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0575	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.00131	-0.29%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0208	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.00143	-0.36%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1095	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001475	-0.38%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0261	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001494	-0.40%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0536	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001571	-0.46%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0157	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001588	-0.46%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0544	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001578	-0.41%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1135	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.00153	-0.38%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1493	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001551	-0.39%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0029	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001528	-0.35%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0211	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001592	-0.39%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0264	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001611	-0.40%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0314	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001619	-0.38%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0899	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001513	-0.32%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.0988	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001473	-0.25%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0125	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001581	-0.28%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1330	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.00177	-0.47%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0982	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001693	-0.43%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0955	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.002021	-0.87%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0206	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002372	-1.87%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.1084	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001621	-0.57%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3778	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001663	-0.78%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0375	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001288	-0.23%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3031	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001504	-0.44%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1841	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.00137	-0.38%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2927	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001541	-0.62%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0393	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001471	-0.54%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1044	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001577	-0.71%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0506	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001683	-0.82%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1076	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001548	-0.54%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0002	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001923	-1.10%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1737	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001643	-0.58%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0962	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001818	-0.91%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0001	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001739	-0.74%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0334	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001641	-0.71%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3088	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002346	-2.40%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1793	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001512	-0.51%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4438	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001654	-0.64%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1051	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001684	-0.61%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0623	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001758	-0.77%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0366	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001654	-0.66%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0947	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.00183	-0.91%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0842	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001982	-1.18%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0667	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001804	-0.77%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0806	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001759	-0.67%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0273	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002039	-1.04%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1491	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001534	-0.40%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2717	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.00136	-0.41%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1312	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.00188	-0.68%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2993	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002271	-0.84%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1993	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002246	-0.79%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0057	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002679	-0.92%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1753	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002841	-1.08%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0333	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002655	-1.09%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1025	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004727	-1.37%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5458	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004942	-1.43%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0113	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006366	-1.78%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2405	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.00513	-1.48%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1957	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001529	-0.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001314	-0.79%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1420	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001307	-0.88%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0269	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001709	-0.77%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2563	✓	1.00