AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s8

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

151

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

58.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0359

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0067

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.318645	-0.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.339313	-1.13%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0528	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.411023	-2.80%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1863	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.31457	-1.48%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2968	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.368546	-2.60%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1474	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.290601	-0.99%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2648	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.281299	-1.16%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0466	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.264029	-1.68%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0714	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.235281	-0.85%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1439	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.23117	-0.40%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0159	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227334	-0.40%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0357	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231639	-0.37%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0208	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237808	-0.37%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0255	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.231266	-0.34%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0248	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.225369	-0.35%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0423	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.231653	-0.39%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0060	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.244251	-0.37%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0474	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260947	-0.44%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0566	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.264857	-0.56%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0245	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258822	-0.55%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0268	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.257112	-0.56%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0149	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.244243	-0.55%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0465	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243659	-0.65%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0086	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.241575	-0.67%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0136	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.250553	-0.77%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0216	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.24384	-0.72%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0345	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.261773	-0.82%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0664	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.253474	-0.83%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0429	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.2506	-0.95%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0197	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.25401	-1.26%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0110	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.24529	-1.03%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0510	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.235312	-1.50%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0026	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.223187	-1.11%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0687	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.231061	-1.93%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0269	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.25413	-3.41%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1362	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.15537	-0.24%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5240	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.158931	-0.26%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0280	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164058	-0.42%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0057	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.170691	-0.96%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0541	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166554	-0.12%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0406	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153331	+0.02%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0831	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148561	+0.07%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0221	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.158371	+0.01%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0414	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.165817	-0.08%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0438	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160316	+0.04%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0436	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.165754	+0.03%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0164	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.17051	+0.04%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0357	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.172286	-0.01%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0129	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.195942	-0.11%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1081	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.183893	-0.17%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0115	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189773	-0.22%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0285	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.19319	-0.24%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0007	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190575	-0.25%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0045	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.199057	-0.32%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0340	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.20134	-0.33%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0131	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.207788	-0.34%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0017	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.209921	-0.39%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0221	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.208277	-0.44%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0056	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.201099	-0.35%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0452	✗	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.206099	-0.46%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0372	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.202519	-0.48%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0133	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.203704	-0.58%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0155	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.189781	-0.64%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0053	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.178981	-0.51%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0120	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.169823	-0.48%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0149	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173276	-0.50%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0187	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.173233	-0.47%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0233	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177518	-0.47%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0165	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177815	-0.47%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0022	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179428	-0.46%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0037	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.183985	-0.47%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0208	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.19019	-0.50%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0263	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.20177	-0.61%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0472	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.206084	-0.68%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0016	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.205046	-0.73%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0130	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.208112	-1.02%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0078	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188881	-0.69%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0965	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.180533	-0.62%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0580	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.167044	-0.42%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0745	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170639	-0.62%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0271	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.181283	-0.67%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0537	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.170091	-0.85%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0579	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.16018	-0.35%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0696	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151617	-0.25%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0929	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149754	-0.23%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0000	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.152897	-0.26%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0194	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.154101	-0.29%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0080	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.161785	-0.38%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0165	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.16298	-0.44%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0224	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153784	-0.37%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0587	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153135	-0.33%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0253	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157539	-0.35%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0067	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159351	-0.37%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0004	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155267	-0.41%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0069	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153312	-0.38%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0073	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154157	-0.38%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0004	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157349	-0.41%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0331	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.158868	-0.43%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0077	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163441	-0.43%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0069	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161148	-0.40%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0234	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.156716	-0.43%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0199	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162118	-0.42%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0012	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.166593	-0.45%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0224	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.168786	-0.48%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0018	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167229	-0.49%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0042	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166064	-0.50%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0064	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170226	-0.51%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0015	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178362	-0.55%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0286	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179241	-0.59%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0074	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.182749	-0.65%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0232	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.17601	-0.70%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0331	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.169738	-0.71%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0232	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.173519	-0.70%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0471	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.16039	-0.66%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0567	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165045	-0.64%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0113	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.165891	-0.63%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0128	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.167765	-0.64%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0046	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.171953	-0.66%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0168	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.169767	-0.63%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0133	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.173437	-0.67%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0111	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.180554	-0.71%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0006	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186113	-0.77%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0020	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.189686	-0.74%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0254	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.196722	-0.82%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0097	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.188897	-0.76%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0346	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.192005	-1.08%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0204	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.201308	-1.17%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0063	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.197633	-1.08%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0529	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.195011	-1.06%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0369	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.191572	-0.95%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0176	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.188845	-0.82%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0010	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.189201	-0.94%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0076	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.191857	-1.08%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0041	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.173901	-0.85%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0752	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.174362	-0.79%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0098	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.181978	-0.88%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0127	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.181666	-1.00%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0144	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.175843	-0.77%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0031	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.175565	-0.75%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0122	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.190096	-0.89%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0275	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.208102	-0.81%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0779	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.204041	-1.10%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0679	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.219591	-1.04%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0051	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.219984	-1.04%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0399	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.216859	-0.91%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0274	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.216204	-0.94%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0067	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.213029	-0.92%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0262	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.219986	-1.09%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0121	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.225469	-0.85%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0064	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.231311	-0.85%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.229277	-0.92%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0139	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.240028	-0.98%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0409	✓	1.00