AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s6

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

151

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

58.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0357

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0051

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.31916	-0.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.340317	-0.84%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0558	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.410391	-2.95%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1848	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.315716	-1.12%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2932	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.367782	-2.81%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1453	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.291026	-0.84%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2633	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.281621	-1.05%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0454	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.263871	-1.74%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0720	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.235096	-0.93%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1447	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.230757	-0.58%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0177	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227093	-0.51%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0368	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231418	-0.47%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0199	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237621	-0.45%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0247	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.231055	-0.43%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0257	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.225196	-0.42%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0431	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.231505	-0.45%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0054	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.244056	-0.45%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0466	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260765	-0.51%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0559	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.264677	-0.63%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0238	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258667	-0.61%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0274	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.256958	-0.62%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0155	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.24418	-0.58%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0467	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243579	-0.68%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0089	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.241597	-0.66%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0135	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.250603	-0.75%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0218	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.243957	-0.67%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0340	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.261763	-0.83%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0664	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.253601	-0.78%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0424	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.250863	-0.84%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0186	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.254255	-1.16%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0101	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.245628	-0.90%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0496	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.235713	-1.33%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0009	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.223587	-0.94%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0669	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.230851	-2.02%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0260	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.250066	-4.95%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1200	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155678	-0.05%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5220	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.159283	-0.04%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0302	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164587	-0.10%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0025	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.171303	-0.61%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0577	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166695	-0.03%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0398	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.153436	+0.09%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0825	✓	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148628	+0.12%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0217	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.158414	+0.04%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0417	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.165838	-0.07%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0439	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160241	-0.01%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0441	✗	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.165649	-0.03%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0158	✓	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.170405	-0.03%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0351	✓	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.172213	-0.05%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0125	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.195786	-0.19%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1073	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.1838	-0.22%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0120	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189697	-0.26%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0281	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.193156	-0.25%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0005	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190582	-0.24%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0044	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.199116	-0.29%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0343	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201451	-0.27%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0136	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.208041	-0.22%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0005	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.210286	-0.22%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0239	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.208736	-0.22%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0034	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.201516	-0.14%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0432	✗	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.206606	-0.21%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0397	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.203056	-0.22%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0107	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.204506	-0.19%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0116	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.190166	-0.44%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0033	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.178901	-0.56%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0124	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.169682	-0.57%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0141	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.17311	-0.60%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0177	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.173122	-0.53%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0227	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177385	-0.54%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0158	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177656	-0.56%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0031	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179208	-0.58%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0049	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.183748	-0.60%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0195	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.189954	-0.63%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0251	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.201571	-0.70%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0462	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.205907	-0.77%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0024	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.204859	-0.82%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0139	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.207898	-1.12%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0068	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188524	-0.88%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0984	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.180076	-0.87%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0605	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.166563	-0.71%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0774	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170221	-0.86%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0247	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.180654	-1.01%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0503	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.169344	-1.29%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0623	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.159481	-0.79%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0740	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.150938	-0.70%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0974	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149096	-0.67%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0044	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.152286	-0.66%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0154	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.153508	-0.67%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0041	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.161437	-0.59%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0143	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.162769	-0.57%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0211	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153608	-0.48%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0598	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153071	-0.38%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0257	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157666	-0.27%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0075	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159583	-0.23%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0018	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155507	-0.25%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0054	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153508	-0.25%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0061	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154378	-0.24%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0011	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157586	-0.26%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0346	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.159116	-0.27%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0093	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163728	-0.26%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0086	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.161427	-0.23%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0216	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.156963	-0.28%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0215	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162378	-0.26%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0028	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.166876	-0.28%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0241	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.169079	-0.31%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0035	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167591	-0.27%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0063	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.16651	-0.23%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0091	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170703	-0.23%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0013	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.17887	-0.27%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0314	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179825	-0.26%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0107	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183382	-0.31%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0267	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176723	-0.30%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0291	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170544	-0.24%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0185	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.17437	-0.22%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0520	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.161429	-0.01%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0502	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.16598	-0.07%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0057	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166885	-0.04%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0188	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168727	-0.07%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0011	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172899	-0.12%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0223	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170747	-0.06%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0076	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.174334	-0.15%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0059	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.181387	-0.25%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0052	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186919	-0.34%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0023	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.190528	-0.30%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0299	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.19754	-0.41%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0139	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189739	-0.32%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0302	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.192924	-0.61%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0252	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.202115	-0.78%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0103	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.198413	-0.69%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0489	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.195768	-0.68%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0330	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.192355	-0.54%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0135	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189685	-0.38%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0055	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.190101	-0.47%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0124	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.192667	-0.66%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0083	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.175254	-0.08%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0675	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.175879	+0.07%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0012	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.183421	-0.10%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0206	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.183334	-0.09%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0052	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.178299	+0.62%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0108	✗	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.17829	+0.79%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.192545	+0.39%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0403	✗	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.210405	+0.29%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0889	✗	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.206199	-0.05%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0574	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220384	-0.68%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.220399	-0.86%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0380	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.217382	-0.67%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0250	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.216795	-0.67%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0039	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.213654	-0.63%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0233	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.220498	-0.86%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0144	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.225909	-0.66%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0045	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.231845	-0.62%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0008	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.229958	-0.62%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0109	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.24082	-0.65%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0441	✓	1.00