DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s3

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

164

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

60.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1217

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0100

actual -0.0319

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	1.9992	+0.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.8478	+0.56%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.0763	✓	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	3.0626	-0.21%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.5242	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.3493	-0.54%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0853	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.5629	-0.78%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0641	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	11.1957	-3.84%	3.591	-69.16%	1.1356	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	2.154	-6.73%	11.643	+404.14%	1.6950	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.7138	-9.03%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.1681	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.6676	-10.11%	2.983	-26.89%	0.1880	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	4.9285	-10.51%	4.08	-25.91%	0.2054	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	8.4401	-7.69%	5.507	-39.77%	0.4036	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	17.0655	-1.07%	9.143	-47.00%	0.6333	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	15.503	-7.25%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.1024	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	15.028	-12.45%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.0960	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	21.1958	-13.52%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.1918	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	40.0277	-8.08%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.4637	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	84.055	-1.64%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6552	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000372312	-0.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000376085	-0.98%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0277	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000248893	-0.24%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3662	✗	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268225	-0.29%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0658	✓	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000307624	-0.41%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1792	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000269452	-0.28%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1541	✗	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.00028019	-0.29%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0526	✓	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000308956	-0.40%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0713	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000300377	-0.37%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0394	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278084	-0.26%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0253	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000301875	-0.34%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0715	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000303309	-0.36%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0412	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330398	-0.48%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0772	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000306352	-0.37%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0808	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000325302	-0.46%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0702	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000298438	-0.32%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0833	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000303466	-0.34%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0019	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.00031967	-0.41%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0282	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000313362	-0.36%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0231	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000406301	-1.05%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2414	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000364791	-0.76%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1048	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000322501	-0.37%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0973	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000326379	-0.46%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0013	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000291383	-0.25%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1400	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000227532	+0.37%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2663	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000239579	+0.37%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0530	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000208343	+0.84%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1235	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.00021435	+0.87%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0208	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000215027	+1.19%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1333	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000223792	+0.94%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1888	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000266425	+0.58%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1285	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000270204	+0.56%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0430	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000255749	+0.85%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0169	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000273848	+0.72%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0397	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000310493	+0.29%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0162	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000345011	+0.06%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.1001	✗	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000411551	-0.47%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0914	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.00035217	-0.04%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1597	✗	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000345678	+0.11%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0042	✓	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000346327	+0.24%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0326	✗	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.00039253	-0.15%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0850	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000409653	-0.23%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0345	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000404067	-0.18%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0158	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000361442	+0.15%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1116	✓	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000405389	-0.10%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1366	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000445785	-0.32%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0146	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000507644	-0.48%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1060	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000520422	-0.49%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0066	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000538885	-0.56%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0229	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000523244	-0.51%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0365	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000567661	-0.58%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0529	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000578229	-0.65%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0386	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000546644	-0.61%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0213	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000596216	-0.75%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0872	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000644593	-0.97%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0807	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000551402	-0.61%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1691	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000576959	-0.68%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0277	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000575191	-0.64%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0156	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000649707	-0.82%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0624	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000682718	-0.93%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0381	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000661257	-0.91%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0103	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000623651	-0.76%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0481	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000623089	-0.72%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0056	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000585663	-0.48%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0424	✗	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000570953	-0.27%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0028	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000617708	-0.45%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0554	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000599109	-0.23%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0066	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000614013	-0.24%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0052	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000588814	+0.00%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0430	✓	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000627308	-0.06%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0728	✓	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000613124	+0.13%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0212	✓	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000593734	+0.34%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0391	✓	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000617507	+0.36%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0472	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000682621	+0.14%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0782	✗	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000684724	+0.25%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0025	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000692182	+0.36%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0206	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.00070848	+0.41%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0323	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000621374	+0.97%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0679	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.0006306	+0.98%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0073	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000744275	+0.55%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1391	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.00081731	+0.41%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1315	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000886658	+0.19%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0460	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001042	-0.07%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1186	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001028	-0.04%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0154	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001097	-0.13%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0166	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001224	-0.23%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1195	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001318	-0.33%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0575	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.00134	-0.34%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0575	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.00131	-0.30%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0209	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.00143	-0.37%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1094	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001475	-0.40%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0258	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001494	-0.42%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0538	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.00157	-0.48%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0155	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001587	-0.48%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0541	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001577	-0.44%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1131	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.00153	-0.42%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1496	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.00155	-0.44%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0034	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001526	-0.42%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0218	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.00159	-0.48%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0255	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.00161	-0.49%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0306	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001617	-0.47%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0891	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001512	-0.40%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.0996	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001472	-0.36%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0114	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001579	-0.40%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1318	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001768	-0.58%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0972	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001691	-0.53%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0964	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.00202	-0.93%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0199	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.00237	-1.96%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.1075	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.00162	-0.62%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3782	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001663	-0.79%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0377	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001287	-0.35%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3042	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001503	-0.53%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1832	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001369	-0.47%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2936	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001541	-0.65%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0390	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.00147	-0.60%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1050	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001577	-0.71%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0505	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001683	-0.80%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1078	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001546	-0.63%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0011	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001924	-1.05%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1742	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001642	-0.68%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0972	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001818	-0.91%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0001	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001738	-0.81%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0327	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.00164	-0.76%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3094	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.00235	-2.26%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1808	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001509	-0.70%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4457	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001652	-0.81%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1034	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.00168	-0.81%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0603	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001755	-0.94%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0383	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001651	-0.86%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0967	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001828	-1.02%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0830	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001981	-1.24%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0660	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.0018	-1.01%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0831	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001754	-0.96%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0302	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002033	-1.30%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1464	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001527	-0.86%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2763	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001351	-1.13%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1384	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001874	-1.02%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2959	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002266	-1.07%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1969	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.00224	-1.05%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0083	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002674	-1.12%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1733	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002837	-1.22%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0318	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002649	-1.29%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1045	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004724	-1.44%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5451	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004938	-1.52%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0104	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006349	-2.03%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2379	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005114	-1.79%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1989	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.00153	-0.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001311	-0.99%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1440	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001282	-2.80%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0072	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001695	-1.54%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2485	✓	1.00