AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · gru_s1

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 456

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

151

of 152 predictions shown

direction hit

58.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0360

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0083

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.318185	-1.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.338683	-1.32%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0510	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.4063	-3.91%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1748	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.313231	-1.90%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.3011	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.364126	-3.77%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1353	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.288934	-1.56%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2705	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.279831	-1.68%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0518	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.26169	-2.55%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0803	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.233596	-1.56%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1511	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.230223	-0.81%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0201	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.226925	-0.58%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0375	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231129	-0.59%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0186	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237139	-0.65%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0227	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.230529	-0.66%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0280	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.224828	-0.58%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0447	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.231202	-0.58%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0040	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.243735	-0.58%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0453	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260255	-0.70%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0539	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.263886	-0.93%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0209	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258048	-0.85%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0298	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.256505	-0.79%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0173	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.243566	-0.83%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0493	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243045	-0.90%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0111	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.24143	-0.73%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0142	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.250546	-0.77%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0215	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.243833	-0.72%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0346	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.261517	-0.92%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0654	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.253143	-0.96%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0442	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.250277	-1.08%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0210	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.253459	-1.47%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0132	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.244981	-1.16%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0522	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.234917	-1.67%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0043	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.223234	-1.09%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0685	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.231394	-1.79%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0283	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.251786	-4.30%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1269	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155262	-0.31%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5247	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.158822	-0.33%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0273	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.163889	-0.52%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0068	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.169868	-1.44%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0493	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.165999	-0.45%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0440	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.152881	-0.27%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0861	✗	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148182	-0.18%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0247	✗	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.157924	-0.27%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0386	✓	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.165136	-0.49%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0397	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.159973	-0.17%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0457	✗	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.165457	-0.15%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0146	✓	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.170083	-0.22%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0332	✓	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.171728	-0.33%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0096	✓	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.195439	-0.36%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1056	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.183549	-0.35%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0134	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189428	-0.41%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0267	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.192895	-0.39%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0008	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190267	-0.41%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0061	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.198804	-0.45%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0327	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.20101	-0.49%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0115	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.207494	-0.48%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0031	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.2096	-0.55%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0206	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.207965	-0.59%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0071	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.200948	-0.42%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0460	✗	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.205917	-0.55%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0363	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.202349	-0.57%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0142	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.203201	-0.83%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0180	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.189183	-0.95%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0085	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.178516	-0.77%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0146	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.16929	-0.80%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0118	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.172701	-0.83%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0154	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.172602	-0.83%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0197	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.176807	-0.87%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0125	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177005	-0.92%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0068	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.178688	-0.87%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0078	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.183206	-0.89%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0165	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.189384	-0.92%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0221	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.200922	-1.02%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0430	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.205261	-1.08%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0056	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.204221	-1.13%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0170	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.206834	-1.62%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0017	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.187484	-1.43%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.1039	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.179024	-1.45%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0663	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.165796	-1.16%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0820	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.168809	-1.68%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0163	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.17968	-1.55%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0449	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.167569	-2.32%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0728	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.158446	-1.43%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0805	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.150196	-1.19%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.1023	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.148402	-1.13%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0091	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.15179	-0.99%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0121	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.152913	-1.06%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0003	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.160773	-1.00%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0102	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.161647	-1.25%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0141	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.1526	-1.13%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0664	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.152339	-0.85%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0305	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.156789	-0.83%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0019	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.158585	-0.85%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0044	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.154338	-1.00%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0129	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.152662	-0.80%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0116	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.153614	-0.73%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0039	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.15682	-0.75%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0297	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.158417	-0.71%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0049	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163016	-0.69%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0043	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.160735	-0.66%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0259	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.156426	-0.62%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0181	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.161865	-0.57%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0003	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.166383	-0.58%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0211	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.168731	-0.51%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0015	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167258	-0.47%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0043	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166196	-0.42%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0072	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170357	-0.43%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0007	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178477	-0.49%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0292	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179396	-0.50%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0083	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.182889	-0.58%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0240	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176458	-0.45%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0306	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170352	-0.35%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0196	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.174183	-0.32%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0509	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.161292	-0.10%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0511	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.165793	-0.18%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0068	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166662	-0.17%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0175	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168548	-0.18%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0001	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172724	-0.22%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0213	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170594	-0.15%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0085	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.17423	-0.21%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0065	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.181273	-0.32%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0046	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186762	-0.42%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0015	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.190375	-0.38%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0291	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.197276	-0.54%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0125	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189649	-0.37%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0307	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.192676	-0.73%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0239	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.20171	-0.98%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0083	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.198019	-0.89%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0509	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.195343	-0.89%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0352	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.19198	-0.73%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0155	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189461	-0.49%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0043	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.189784	-0.64%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0107	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.19221	-0.90%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0059	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.174619	-0.45%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0711	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.175147	-0.34%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0053	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.182679	-0.50%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0166	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.182267	-0.67%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0111	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.176704	-0.28%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0018	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.176495	-0.23%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0070	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.190895	-0.47%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0317	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.208922	-0.42%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0818	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.204732	-0.76%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0645	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220014	-0.85%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.220338	-0.88%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0383	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.217549	-0.59%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0243	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.216515	-0.80%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0052	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.21349	-0.70%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0240	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.220152	-1.01%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0128	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.225855	-0.68%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0047	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.231473	-0.78%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0008	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.229346	-0.89%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0136	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.239965	-1.00%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0406	✓	1.00