DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · beta_5y

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 504

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

165

of 168 predictions shown

direction hit

61.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1224

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0083

actual -0.0313

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	1.3825	1.3946	+0.88%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	2.0049	+0.83%	1.3825	+7.42%	0.0611	✓	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.8548	+0.94%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.0725	✓	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	3.0783	+0.30%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.5293	✗	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.3705	+0.09%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0916	✗	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.5862	-0.13%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0706	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	11.4249	-1.87%	3.591	-69.16%	1.1559	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	2.1748	-5.83%	11.643	+404.14%	1.6854	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.7867	-6.58%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.1946	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.8032	-6.78%	2.983	-26.89%	0.2243	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	5.1392	-6.68%	4.08	-25.91%	0.2473	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	8.8078	-3.67%	5.507	-39.77%	0.4462	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	17.2128	-0.22%	9.143	-47.00%	0.6419	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	16.298	-2.49%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.0524	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	16.1273	-6.04%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.0254	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	22.9821	-6.23%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.2727	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	41.892	-3.80%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.5092	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	83.6637	-2.10%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6505	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000372393	-0.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000374925	-1.28%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0308	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249074	-0.17%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3655	✗	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268432	-0.21%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0666	✓	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000307336	-0.51%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1782	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000269586	-0.23%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1536	✗	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000280277	-0.26%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0530	✓	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000308923	-0.41%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0712	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000300371	-0.37%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0394	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278083	-0.26%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0253	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000301787	-0.37%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0713	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.00030343	-0.32%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0408	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330272	-0.52%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0769	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000306417	-0.35%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0806	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.00032504	-0.54%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0694	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000298391	-0.34%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0835	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000303493	-0.33%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0018	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000319666	-0.42%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0282	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000313468	-0.33%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0227	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000405974	-1.13%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2406	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000363964	-0.99%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1071	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000321455	-0.69%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.1005	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000324671	-0.98%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0065	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000289573	-0.87%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1462	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000226322	-0.17%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2716	✗	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000237996	-0.30%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0464	✓	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000206736	+0.07%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1313	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.00021267	+0.08%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0129	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000213168	+0.31%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1246	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000222125	+0.19%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1962	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.00026454	-0.14%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1214	✓	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000268338	-0.13%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0499	✗	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000253895	+0.12%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0242	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000272069	+0.06%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0331	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000309136	-0.15%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0118	✓	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000343761	-0.30%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.0965	✓	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000409987	-0.85%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0876	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000350858	-0.41%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1635	✗	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000344287	-0.29%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0083	✗	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000344846	-0.19%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0283	✓	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000391376	-0.44%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0820	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000408371	-0.54%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0313	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000402701	-0.52%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0192	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000360253	-0.18%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1149	✗	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000404639	-0.29%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1347	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000445439	-0.39%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0139	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000507314	-0.55%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1053	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000519991	-0.58%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0074	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000538447	-0.64%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0221	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000522978	-0.56%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0370	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000566989	-0.70%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0518	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000577735	-0.73%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0378	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000547229	-0.50%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0224	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000597032	-0.61%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0886	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.00064493	-0.92%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0813	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000552117	-0.48%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1678	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000577823	-0.53%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0292	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000576209	-0.46%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0138	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000650529	-0.70%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0636	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000683111	-0.87%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0387	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000661826	-0.82%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0111	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000624104	-0.68%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0474	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000623182	-0.70%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0057	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000585515	-0.51%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0427	✗	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000570311	-0.38%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0040	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000617101	-0.55%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0544	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000598044	-0.41%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0084	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000612743	-0.45%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0031	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000587053	-0.30%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0460	✗	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.00062527	-0.39%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0696	✓	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000610551	-0.29%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0254	✗	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000590901	-0.13%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0439	✗	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000614599	-0.11%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0424	✓	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000679848	-0.27%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0741	✓	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000681518	-0.22%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0021	✓	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000688498	-0.17%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0153	✓	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000704228	-0.19%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0262	✓	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000617794	+0.39%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0737	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000627715	+0.51%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0027	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.00074121	+0.14%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1350	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000814251	+0.03%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1277	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000884483	-0.06%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0435	✓	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001041	-0.22%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1171	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001026	-0.15%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0165	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001096	-0.17%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0162	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001224	-0.26%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1192	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001318	-0.33%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0574	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001341	-0.33%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0575	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001311	-0.25%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0203	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.00143	-0.33%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1098	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001476	-0.36%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0263	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001495	-0.34%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0530	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001571	-0.41%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0162	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001588	-0.45%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0544	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001576	-0.51%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1124	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.00153	-0.40%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1494	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.00155	-0.43%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0033	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001527	-0.39%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0215	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001591	-0.46%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0256	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.00161	-0.52%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0303	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001616	-0.58%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0880	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001511	-0.43%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.1000	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001472	-0.34%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0115	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001578	-0.41%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1316	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001766	-0.68%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0962	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001691	-0.52%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0964	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.002019	-0.96%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0197	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002357	-2.50%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.1020	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001618	-0.76%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3797	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001657	-1.16%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0413	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001286	-0.35%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3043	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001501	-0.66%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1819	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001369	-0.44%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2933	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001541	-0.67%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0388	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001471	-0.54%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1044	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001577	-0.67%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0501	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001683	-0.82%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1076	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001547	-0.55%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0004	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.00192	-1.22%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1725	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001642	-0.66%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0969	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001817	-0.98%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0008	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001737	-0.86%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0322	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.00164	-0.79%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3097	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002336	-2.81%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1752	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001508	-0.77%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4464	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.00165	-0.92%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1023	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001678	-0.92%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0592	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001752	-1.11%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0400	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001649	-0.98%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0979	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001825	-1.21%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0811	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001975	-1.54%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0630	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001797	-1.16%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0846	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001753	-1.04%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0311	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002027	-1.62%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1432	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001528	-0.77%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2755	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001355	-0.78%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1349	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001875	-0.97%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2964	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002265	-1.09%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1967	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002242	-0.97%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0075	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002674	-1.09%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1736	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002837	-1.21%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0320	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002646	-1.42%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1058	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004722	-1.49%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5446	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004936	-1.56%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0100	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006345	-2.10%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2372	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005126	-1.55%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1964	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001534	-0.32%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001321	-0.21%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1362	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001311	-0.57%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0299	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001713	-0.54%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2586	✓	1.00