AVA

AVA (Travala) · Ethereum · beta_5y

token id: #60
symbol: AVA
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xa6c0c097741d55ecd9a3a7def3a8253fd022ceb9
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-14
predictions: 459

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

152

of 153 predictions shown

direction hit

57.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0357

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0057

actual +0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.37325	0.369409	-1.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.38
2026-10-21	oos	0.3215	0.319368	-0.66%	0.37325	-0.55%	0.0003	✓	0.37
2026-10-20	oos	0.3432	0.340317	-0.84%	0.3215	-6.32%	0.0558	✓	0.37
2026-10-19	oos	0.42285	0.411802	-2.61%	0.3432	-18.84%	0.1882	✓	0.45
2026-10-18	oos	0.3193	0.315546	-1.18%	0.42285	+32.43%	0.2937	✗	0.49
2026-10-17	oos	0.3784	0.368957	-2.50%	0.3193	-15.62%	0.1485	✓	0.51
2026-10-16	oos	0.2935	0.290794	-0.92%	0.3784	+28.93%	0.2641	✗	0.54
2026-10-15	oos	0.2846	0.281466	-1.10%	0.2935	+3.13%	0.0460	✗	0.54
2026-10-14	oos	0.26855	0.263946	-1.71%	0.2846	+5.98%	0.0717	✗	0.54
2026-10-13	oos	0.2373	0.234855	-1.03%	0.26855	+13.17%	0.1458	✗	0.63
2026-10-12	oos	0.2321	0.230692	-0.61%	0.2373	+2.24%	0.0180	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.22825	0.227221	-0.45%	0.2321	+1.69%	0.0362	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.2325	0.231367	-0.49%	0.22825	-1.83%	0.0196	✓	0.66
2026-10-09	oos	0.2387	0.237332	-0.57%	0.2325	-2.60%	0.0235	✓	0.66
2026-10-08	oos	0.23205	0.230709	-0.58%	0.2387	+2.87%	0.0272	✗	0.66
2026-10-07	oos	0.22615	0.22505	-0.49%	0.23205	+2.61%	0.0437	✗	0.68
2026-10-06	oos	0.23255	0.23145	-0.47%	0.22615	-2.75%	0.0051	✓	0.67
2026-10-05	oos	0.24515	0.243972	-0.48%	0.23255	-5.14%	0.0463	✓	0.67
2026-10-04	oos	0.2621	0.260644	-0.56%	0.24515	-6.47%	0.0554	✓	0.67
2026-10-03	oos	0.26635	0.264492	-0.70%	0.2621	-1.60%	0.0231	✓	0.68
2026-10-02	oos	0.26025	0.258465	-0.69%	0.26635	+2.34%	0.0281	✗	0.68
2026-10-01	oos	0.25855	0.256793	-0.68%	0.26025	+0.66%	0.0162	✗	0.68
2026-09-30	oos	0.2456	0.243968	-0.66%	0.25855	+5.27%	0.0476	✗	0.68
2026-09-29	oos	0.24525	0.243382	-0.76%	0.2456	+0.14%	0.0097	✗	0.66
2026-09-28	oos	0.2432	0.241529	-0.69%	0.24525	+0.84%	0.0138	✗	0.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.2525	0.250599	-0.75%	0.2432	-3.68%	0.0217	✓	0.69
2026-09-26	oos	0.2456	0.243911	-0.69%	0.2525	+2.81%	0.0342	✗	0.69
2026-09-25	oos	0.26395	0.261758	-0.83%	0.2456	-6.95%	0.0664	✓	0.69
2026-09-24	oos	0.2556	0.253555	-0.80%	0.26395	+3.27%	0.0426	✗	0.70
2026-09-23	oos	0.253	0.250813	-0.86%	0.2556	+1.03%	0.0188	✗	0.70
2026-09-22	oos	0.25725	0.2542	-1.19%	0.253	-1.65%	0.0103	✓	0.70
2026-09-21	oos	0.24785	0.245342	-1.01%	0.25725	+3.79%	0.0507	✗	0.73
2026-09-20	oos	0.2389	0.235481	-1.43%	0.24785	+3.75%	0.0019	✓	0.76
2026-09-19	oos	0.2257	0.223213	-1.10%	0.2389	+5.85%	0.0686	✗	0.76
2026-09-18	oos	0.2356	0.231036	-1.94%	0.2257	-4.20%	0.0268	✓	0.78
2026-09-17	oos	0.2631	0.253085	-3.81%	0.2356	-10.45%	0.1320	✓	1.05
2026-09-16	oos	0.15575	0.155393	-0.23%	0.2631	+68.92%	0.5238	✗	1.03
2026-09-15	oos	0.15935	0.158954	-0.25%	0.15575	-2.26%	0.0281	✓	1.05
2026-09-14	oos	0.16475	0.164	-0.46%	0.15935	-3.28%	0.0061	✗	1.03
2026-09-13	oos	0.17235	0.170342	-1.17%	0.16475	-4.41%	0.0521	✓	1.05
2026-09-12	oos	0.16675	0.166198	-0.33%	0.17235	+3.36%	0.0428	✗	1.07
2026-09-11	oos	0.1533	0.15326	-0.03%	0.16675	+8.77%	0.0836	✗	1.07
2026-09-10	oos	0.14845	0.148693	+0.16%	0.1533	+3.27%	0.0213	✓	1.06
2026-09-09	oos	0.15835	0.158502	+0.10%	0.14845	-6.25%	0.0422	✗	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.16595	0.165789	-0.10%	0.15835	-4.58%	0.0436	✓	1.09
2026-09-07	oos	0.16025	0.160673	+0.26%	0.16595	+3.56%	0.0414	✓	1.11
2026-09-06	oos	0.1657	0.166244	+0.33%	0.16025	-3.29%	0.0193	✗	1.11
2026-09-05	oos	0.17045	0.170952	+0.29%	0.1657	-2.79%	0.0383	✗	1.11
2026-09-04	oos	0.1723	0.172646	+0.20%	0.17045	-1.07%	0.0150	✗	1.11
2026-09-03	oos	0.19615	0.195965	-0.09%	0.1723	-12.16%	0.1083	✓	1.04
2026-09-02	oos	0.1842	0.184014	-0.10%	0.19615	+6.49%	0.0109	✗	1.06
2026-09-01	oos	0.1902	0.189865	-0.18%	0.1842	-3.15%	0.0290	✓	1.07
2026-08-31	oos	0.19365	0.19329	-0.19%	0.1902	-1.78%	0.0012	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.19105	0.190702	-0.18%	0.19365	+1.36%	0.0038	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.1997	0.199212	-0.24%	0.19105	-4.33%	0.0347	✓	0.97
2026-08-28	oos	0.202	0.201512	-0.24%	0.1997	-1.14%	0.0139	✓	0.97
2026-08-27	oos	0.2085	0.207971	-0.25%	0.202	-3.12%	0.0008	✓	0.97
2026-08-26	oos	0.21075	0.210129	-0.29%	0.2085	-1.07%	0.0231	✓	0.98
2026-08-25	oos	0.2092	0.208489	-0.34%	0.21075	+0.74%	0.0045	✗	0.99
2026-08-24	oos	0.2018	0.201294	-0.25%	0.2092	+3.67%	0.0443	✗	0.99
2026-08-23	oos	0.20705	0.206313	-0.36%	0.2018	-2.54%	0.0383	✓	1.01
2026-08-22	oos	0.2035	0.202785	-0.35%	0.20705	+1.74%	0.0120	✗	1.01
2026-08-21	oos	0.2049	0.203921	-0.48%	0.2035	-0.68%	0.0144	✗	1.01
2026-08-20	oos	0.191	0.190037	-0.50%	0.2049	+7.28%	0.0040	✓	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.1799	0.179168	-0.41%	0.191	+6.17%	0.0109	✗	1.02
2026-08-18	oos	0.17065	0.169962	-0.40%	0.1799	+5.42%	0.0157	✓	1.05
2026-08-17	oos	0.17415	0.173408	-0.43%	0.17065	-2.01%	0.0195	✓	1.08
2026-08-16	oos	0.17405	0.173297	-0.43%	0.17415	+0.06%	0.0237	✓	1.11
2026-08-15	oos	0.17835	0.177535	-0.46%	0.17405	-2.41%	0.0166	✓	1.11
2026-08-14	oos	0.17865	0.177831	-0.46%	0.17835	-0.17%	0.0021	✓	1.12
2026-08-13	oos	0.18025	0.179533	-0.40%	0.17865	-0.89%	0.0031	✓	1.12
2026-08-12	oos	0.18485	0.184129	-0.39%	0.18025	-2.49%	0.0215	✓	1.15
2026-08-11	oos	0.19115	0.190382	-0.40%	0.18485	-3.30%	0.0273	✓	1.15
2026-08-10	oos	0.203	0.20198	-0.50%	0.19115	-5.84%	0.0483	✓	1.15
2026-08-09	oos	0.2075	0.206322	-0.57%	0.203	-2.17%	0.0004	✓	1.14
2026-08-08	oos	0.20655	0.205282	-0.61%	0.2075	+0.46%	0.0118	✗	1.14
2026-08-07	oos	0.21025	0.208207	-0.97%	0.20655	-1.76%	0.0083	✓	1.15
2026-08-06	oos	0.1902	0.188884	-0.69%	0.21025	+10.54%	0.0965	✗	1.11
2026-08-05	oos	0.18165	0.180497	-0.63%	0.1902	+4.71%	0.0582	✗	1.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.16775	0.167104	-0.39%	0.18165	+8.29%	0.0742	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	0.1717	0.170724	-0.57%	0.16775	-2.30%	0.0276	✓	1.10
2026-08-02	oos	0.1825	0.181197	-0.71%	0.1717	-5.92%	0.0533	✓	1.10
2026-08-01	oos	0.17155	0.169779	-1.03%	0.1825	+6.38%	0.0597	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	0.16075	0.159791	-0.60%	0.17155	+6.72%	0.0721	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	0.152	0.151387	-0.40%	0.16075	+5.76%	0.0945	✗	1.16
2026-07-29	oos	0.1501	0.149507	-0.39%	0.152	+1.27%	0.0017	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.1533	0.152728	-0.37%	0.1501	-2.09%	0.0182	✓	1.16
2026-07-27	oos	0.15455	0.153958	-0.38%	0.1533	-0.81%	0.0071	✓	1.16
2026-07-26	oos	0.1624	0.161765	-0.39%	0.15455	-4.83%	0.0163	✓	1.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.1637	0.162854	-0.52%	0.1624	-0.79%	0.0216	✓	1.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.15435	0.153702	-0.42%	0.1637	+6.06%	0.0592	✗	1.15
2026-07-23	oos	0.15365	0.153192	-0.30%	0.15435	+0.46%	0.0249	✗	1.16
2026-07-22	oos	0.1581	0.157642	-0.29%	0.15365	-2.81%	0.0074	✓	1.16
2026-07-21	oos	0.15995	0.159455	-0.31%	0.1581	-1.16%	0.0010	✓	1.16
2026-07-20	oos	0.1559	0.155365	-0.34%	0.15995	+2.60%	0.0063	✗	1.15
2026-07-19	oos	0.1539	0.153425	-0.31%	0.1559	+1.30%	0.0066	✗	1.15
2026-07-18	oos	0.15475	0.154289	-0.30%	0.1539	-0.55%	0.0005	✓	1.15
2026-07-17	oos	0.158	0.157466	-0.34%	0.15475	-2.06%	0.0338	✓	1.17
2026-07-16	oos	0.15955	0.158997	-0.35%	0.158	-0.97%	0.0086	✓	1.17
2026-07-15	oos	0.16415	0.163557	-0.36%	0.15955	-2.80%	0.0076	✓	1.17
2026-07-14	oos	0.1618	0.16127	-0.33%	0.16415	+1.45%	0.0226	✗	1.17
2026-07-13	oos	0.1574	0.156859	-0.34%	0.1618	+2.80%	0.0208	✓	1.21
2026-07-12	oos	0.1628	0.162269	-0.33%	0.1574	-3.32%	0.0022	✓	1.21
2026-07-11	oos	0.16735	0.166749	-0.36%	0.1628	-2.72%	0.0233	✓	1.21
2026-07-10	oos	0.1696	0.168978	-0.37%	0.16735	-1.33%	0.0029	✓	1.21
2026-07-09	oos	0.16805	0.167469	-0.35%	0.1696	+0.92%	0.0056	✓	1.22
2026-07-08	oos	0.1669	0.166365	-0.32%	0.16805	+0.69%	0.0083	✓	1.23
2026-07-07	oos	0.1711	0.170573	-0.31%	0.1669	-2.45%	0.0006	✓	1.23
2026-07-06	oos	0.17935	0.178718	-0.35%	0.1711	-4.60%	0.0306	✓	1.22
2026-07-05	oos	0.1803	0.179638	-0.37%	0.17935	-0.53%	0.0096	✓	1.22
2026-07-04	oos	0.18395	0.183132	-0.44%	0.1803	-1.98%	0.0253	✓	1.24
2026-07-03	oos	0.17725	0.176533	-0.40%	0.18395	+3.78%	0.0302	✗	1.22
2026-07-02	oos	0.17095	0.170286	-0.39%	0.17725	+3.69%	0.0200	✗	1.20
2026-07-01	oos	0.17475	0.173885	-0.50%	0.17095	-2.17%	0.0492	✓	1.28
2026-06-30	oos	0.16145	0.160875	-0.36%	0.17475	+8.24%	0.0537	✗	1.20
2026-06-29	oos	0.1661	0.16548	-0.37%	0.16145	-2.80%	0.0087	✗	1.21
2026-06-28	oos	0.16695	0.166278	-0.40%	0.1661	-0.51%	0.0152	✓	1.22
2026-06-27	oos	0.16885	0.168183	-0.39%	0.16695	-1.13%	0.0021	✓	1.22
2026-06-26	oos	0.1731	0.172321	-0.45%	0.16885	-2.46%	0.0190	✓	1.23
2026-06-25	oos	0.17085	0.170175	-0.40%	0.1731	+1.32%	0.0109	✗	1.23
2026-06-24	oos	0.1746	0.173914	-0.39%	0.17085	-2.15%	0.0083	✗	1.23
2026-06-23	oos	0.18185	0.181066	-0.43%	0.1746	-3.99%	0.0035	✓	1.22
2026-06-22	oos	0.18755	0.186642	-0.48%	0.18185	-3.04%	0.0008	✓	1.22
2026-06-21	oos	0.1911	0.190161	-0.49%	0.18755	-1.86%	0.0279	✓	1.25
2026-06-20	oos	0.19835	0.19714	-0.61%	0.1911	-3.66%	0.0118	✓	1.24
2026-06-19	oos	0.19035	0.189419	-0.49%	0.19835	+4.20%	0.0319	✗	1.21
2026-06-18	oos	0.1941	0.192488	-0.83%	0.19035	-1.93%	0.0229	✓	1.25
2026-06-17	oos	0.2037	0.201751	-0.96%	0.1941	-4.71%	0.0085	✓	1.22
2026-06-16	oos	0.1998	0.198162	-0.82%	0.2037	+1.95%	0.0502	✗	1.26
2026-06-15	oos	0.1971	0.195575	-0.77%	0.1998	+1.37%	0.0340	✗	1.26
2026-06-14	oos	0.1934	0.192108	-0.67%	0.1971	+1.91%	0.0148	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.1904	0.189348	-0.55%	0.1934	+1.58%	0.0037	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.191	0.189622	-0.72%	0.1904	-0.31%	0.0098	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.19395	0.192139	-0.93%	0.191	-1.52%	0.0056	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.1754	0.174321	-0.62%	0.19395	+10.58%	0.0728	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.17575	0.174818	-0.53%	0.1754	-0.20%	0.0072	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.1836	0.182391	-0.66%	0.17575	-4.28%	0.0150	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.1835	0.18205	-0.79%	0.1836	+0.05%	0.0123	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.1772	0.176193	-0.57%	0.1835	+3.56%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	0.1769	0.17596	-0.53%	0.1772	+0.17%	0.0100	✗	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	0.1918	0.190501	-0.68%	0.1769	-7.77%	0.0296	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	0.2098	0.208294	-0.72%	0.1918	-8.58%	0.0788	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	0.2063	0.204526	-0.86%	0.2098	+1.70%	0.0655	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	0.2219	0.220201	-0.77%	0.2063	-7.03%	0.0023	✓	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	0.2223	0.220645	-0.74%	0.2219	-0.18%	0.0369	✗	1.00
2026-05-30	oos	0.21885	0.217665	-0.54%	0.2223	+1.58%	0.0237	✗	1.00
2026-05-29	oos	0.21825	0.216869	-0.63%	0.21885	+0.27%	0.0036	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.215	0.21375	-0.58%	0.21825	+1.51%	0.0228	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.2224	0.220719	-0.76%	0.215	-3.33%	0.0154	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.2274	0.226219	-0.52%	0.2224	-2.20%	0.0031	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.2333	0.232018	-0.55%	0.2274	-2.53%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.2314	0.230068	-0.58%	0.2333	+0.82%	0.0104	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.2424	0.240794	-0.66%	0.2314	-4.54%	0.0440	✓	1.00